Fig. 2

The impact of holiday travel on the disease spread. The speed of disease spread, quantified by the probability of spreading to 4 or more cities when it reaches 50 infections, from simulations with initial infections in Taipei City (representing big cities) or Pingtong County (representing small cities) are shown. The impact of Lunar New Year (10-day) was larger than Ching Ming Festival (4-day) and Dragon Boat Festival (4-day). Colors represent the different timing of when initial infections occurred (blue: at the beginning of holidays; red and green: 7 days and 14-days before holidays, respectively). After holidays, mobility changed back to that during normal days and stayed the same until the end of each simulation. R₀ = 2.4