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Table 3 Lowest and highest predictions at the end of month 2 (2020-04-19), month 4 (2020-06-20) after the official epidemic start date (2020-02-19), and the latest dates available in 2020 and 2021

From: Rapid review of COVID-19 epidemic estimation studies for Iran

Outcomes:

Lowest

Study

MOHME

Highest

Study

- End of month 2 (20–04-19)

 Cumulative deaths

1,777

Imperial a

5,118

388,951

Rafieenasab b

 Daily deaths

30

Imperial a

87

11,289

Rahimi Rise c

 Cumulative cases

20,588

Al-Qaness d

82,211

2,310,161

IHME e

 Incident daily cases

93

Thu f

1,343

216,262

Rahimi Rise c

 Incident daily total cases g k

72,950

Saberi (paper) h

..

1,616,385

Saberi (paper) i

- End of month 4 (20–06-20)

 Cumulative deaths

3,590

Imperial a

9,507

1,819,392

Mashayekhi j

 Daily deaths

5

Mashayekhi k

115

44,934

Mashayekhi j

 Cumulative cases

144,305

DELPHI l

202,584

4,266,964

IHME e

 Incident daily cases

211

DELPHI l

2,322

138,892

Gu (YYG) m

 Incident daily total cases g

9,625

Saberi (paper) h

..

1,255,012

Saberi (paper) i

- Latest date available in 2020

 Cumulative deaths

16,176

Imperial n

30,712 o

418,834

Srivastava p

 Daily deaths

0

Imperial a

373 o

3,984

Imperial q

 Cumulative cases

3,588,293

Imperial n

534,631o

41,475,792

Imperial q

 Incident daily cases

0

Imperial a

4,251o

486,745

Imperial e

 Incident daily total cases g

9,625

Saberi (paper) h

..

169,110

Saberi (paper) i

- Latest date available in 2021

 Cumulative deaths

40,151

IHME r

..

125,690

IHME s

 Daily deaths

55

IHME r

..

1,093

IHME s

 Cumulative cases

19,799,934

IHME r

..

34,417,912

IHME s

 Incident daily cases

14,818

IHME r

..

236,781

IHME s

  1. a Imperial, S4: Surged Additional 50% Reduction. Lower 95% uncertainty limit [13]
  2. b Rafieenasab, S3: Approximation calculation. Mean estimate [54]
  3. c Rahimi Rise, S2: No interventions. Mean estimate [29]
  4. d Al-Qaness, M1: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) enhanced with Genetic Algorithm (GA). Mean estimate [51]
  5. e IHME, S2 Reference (Current): ‘Current projection’ scenario assumes social distancing mandates are re-imposed for 6 weeks whenever daily deaths reach 8 per million (0.8 per 100,000). Upper 95% uncertainty limit [12]
  6. f Thu, M1: Linear growth rate, eq. 1. Mean estimate [48]
  7. g Saberi (paper), Incident daily total cases (confirmed and suspected) [22]
  8. h Saberi (paper), S1: 20% more distancing. Mean estimate [22]
  9. i Saberi (paper), S3: 20% less distancing. Upper 95% uncertainty limit [22]
  10. j Mashayekhi, S3: Worse than Scenario 2 (S2: Not serious distancing). Mean estimate [28]
  11. k Mashayekhi, S1: S1: Serious distancing. Mean estimate [28]
  12. l DELPHI, S1: Single scenario. Mean estimate [10]
  13. m Gu (YYG) S1, Single scenario. Upper 95% uncertainty limit [17]
  14. n Imperial, S4: Surged Additional 50% Reduction. Lower 95% uncertainty limit. For 2020-12-31 [13]
  15. o MOHME official via ([4, 5]), as of 2020-10-19
  16. p Srivastava, S2P1: Scenario Released, Parameter 1. mean estimate For 2020-12-19 [15]
  17. q Imperial, S3: Relax Interventions 50%. Upper 95% uncertainty limit. For 2020-12-31 [13]
  18. r IHME, S1Best (Masks): ‘Universal Masks’ scenario reflects 95% mask usage in public in every location. Lower 95% uncertainty limit. For 2021-01-31 [12]
  19. s IHME, S3 Worse (Easing): ‘Mandates easing’ scenario reflects continued easing of social distancing mandates, and mandates are not re-imposed. Upper 95% uncertainty limit. For 2021-01-31 [12]
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BMC Public Health

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