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1
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The predicted cases show a strong correlation with the real cases
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c1-Correlation: The correlation between measles cases and predicted cases must exceed 0.650 and must also be statistically significant. The significance level (p) was set to be < 0.01 in two-tailed significance
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2
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The prediction shows the right time of measles’ outbreaks
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c2-Time: The prediction point of measles outbreaks must not exceed one month in relation to the real cases and must not be observed after the outbreak
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3
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The predicted value of outbreaks is close to the real cases
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c3-Volume of predicted cases during outbreak periods: must not exceed 28% of the real cases during outbreaks
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4
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The prediction includes all periods with excessive activity of measles (outbreaks)
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c4-Outbreak predicted periods: the distributions of each prediction must include all outbreak periods within the 5-year examined period
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5
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The error of the estimate (MSE%) is smaller than 28%
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c5-Mean Standard Error (MSE): the MSE of all predicted cases must not exceed 28% of the real cases mean
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