Fig. 4

The date of ICUs saturation can be predicted early on. The number of deaths (red crosses) grows exponentially in time in Lombardy region, Italy. The number of ICU patients (orange circles) flattens in time: this indicates the saturation of the ICU beds in the region. The dotted blue line is the linear regression of the first six orange data points. The day of the saturation can be predicted by linear regression, fitting the logarithm of the number of ICU patients at early stages of the epidemic: the timeline highlighted in magenta shows the predicted temporal range for the saturation of 50% of the ICU beds; the beginning and the end of the magenta range are obtained by fitting the first four (blue triangle) and nine orange data points respectively. To avoid ICUs saturation, an earlier lockdown (indicated by the blue triangle) would have been necessary. The green triangle and green diamond represent the lockdown day (March 8th 2020) and full lockdown day (March 21st 2020). The orange solid line and dotted line represent 100 and 50% of the actual total number of ICU beds in Lombardy