Table 1 Key model input parameters
Input parameters | Mean value | 95% CI | Distribution (se) | Data source and assumptions e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Population estimates | Number of boys and girls aged 4 until 12 years of age | CBS Statline. | ||
Intervention effect estimate | Bartelink et al. (2019) | |||
Relative effect after 2 years of intervention in children aged 4–12 years | BMI z-score | Assumption: full effect maintenance over lifetime a | ||
HPSF: −0.083 | [−0.15;-0.02] | Gamma (0.08) | ||
PAS: −0.066 | [−0,13;-0.00] | Gamma (0.09) | ||
BMI (standard deviation 2.55 kg/m2) | ||||
HPSF: −0.21 | [− 0.38;-0.05] | Gamma (0.08) | ||
PAS: −0.17 | [−0.33;-0.00] | Gamma (0.09) | ||
SES-specific 2-year relative effects | BMI z-score | Bartelink et al. (2019). Converted to BMI effects with standard deviation of 2.55 (based on the study sample at baseline). | ||
HPSF vs control | ||||
low SES: −0.103 | [−0.22;-0.02] | Gamma (0.16) | ||
middle SES: −0.049 | [−0.16;-0.06] | Gamma (0.14) | ||
high SES: −0.063 | [−0.18;-0.05] | Gamma(0.15) | ||
PAS vs control | ||||
low SES: −0.067 | [− 0.18;-0.05] | Gamma (0.15) | ||
middle SES: −0.056 | [−0.18;-0.06] | Gamma (0.16) | ||
high SES: −0.051 | [−0.16;-0.06] | Gamma (0.14) | ||
Effect maintenance scenarios | Oosterhoff et al. (2020) | |||
1.Constant- and decreasing effects after primary school Maintenance factor uncontrolled environment | HPSF: 0.22 | [0.04;0.39] | Lognormal (0.09) | |
PAS: 0.22 | [0.06;0.37] | Lognormal (0.08) | ||
2. Increasing- and decreasing effects after primary school Relative BMI effect with household multiplier | ||||
HPSF: −0.30 | [−0.42;-0.18] | Gamma(0.06) | ||
PAS: −0.19 | [−0.27;-0.12] | Gamma (0.04) | ||
3. Increasing effects Maintenance factor household maintainer | ||||
HPSF: 1.67 | [1.48;1.85] | Lognormal (0.09) | ||
PAS: 1.10 | [1.01;1.19] | Lognormal (0.05) | ||
Intervention cost estimate | Oosterhoff et al. (2019) | |||
Net intervention costs, societal perspectiveb | HPSF: €153 per year (€0.96 per day) (2016) | Fixed | ||
PAS: €346 per year (€2.16 per day) (2016) | Fixed | |||
Net intervention costs, healthcare perspective b | HPSF: €715 per year (€4.47 per day) (2016) | Fixed | ||
Childhood and adolescence | ||||
Weight status | ||||
Cut-off values of overweight and obesity (kg/m2) | Fixed | Cole et al. (2000) | ||
BMI distribution Dutch children | Age and sex-specific values for skewness and variation | Schönbeck et al. (2011) | ||
Health-related quality of life | ||||
Utility weights | Normal weight: 0.85 | [0.84;0.87] | Beta (0.01) | Brown et al. (2018) |
Overweight: 0.83 | [0.81;0.85] | Beta (0.01) | ||
Obesity: 0.82 | [0.79;0.84] | Beta (0.01) | ||
Health resource use | ||||
Average number of GP visits / year | 59.6% children visiting GP * 6.7 visits / year | Fixed | Statline (n.d.) | |
Average number of specialist visits / year | 27.0% children visiting GP * 9.7 visits / year | Fixed | Statline (n.d.) | |
Ratio of HC costs for overweight vs. normal weight | 1 | Fixed | Gortmaker et al. [based on Table A.3.2] | |
Ratio of HC costs for obesity vs. normal weight | 1.22 | [1.21;1.22] | Lognormal (0.00) | |
Cost price per GP visit b | €34 | Fixed | Zorginstituut Nederland (2015) | |
Cost price per specialist visit b | €94 | Fixed | Zorginstituut Nederland (2015) | |
School absenteeism | ||||
Median number of school absenteeism days / year c | 5.0 | Gamma (3.26) | Additional analysis based on data collection as described by Willeboordse et al. (2016) | |
Ratio of absenteeism for overweight vs. normal weight | 1.27 | [1.03;1.56] | Lognormal (0.14) | An et al. (2017) |
Ratio of absenteeism for obesity vs. normal weight | 1.54 | [1.33;1.78] | Lognormal (0.11) | |
Cost price per school absenteeism day b | €27 | Fixed | Drost et al. (2014) | |
Adulthood | ||||
Weight status a | Normal weight, overweight, obesity | Log-odds | Fifth Dutch Growth Study. Schönbeck et al. (2009) | |
Chronic diseases d | Obesity related diseases: acute myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, stroke, renal, colorectal, breast, prostate, and endometrium cancer, diabetes mellitus, hip, knee arthritis, and low back pain. Indirect-related diseases: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung, stomach, esophagus, larynx, bladder, pancreas, and oral cavity cancer | Prevalence: log-oddsIncidence: lognormal | RIVM Chronic Disease Model. Hoogenveen et al. (2010), van Baal et al. (2006) | |
Adulthood | ||||
Health-related quality of life | ||||
Utility weights (for chronic disease) | Fixed | Dutch Burden of Disease Study. Melse et al. (2000) | ||
Health resource use & unit costs | ||||
Disease healthcare costs | Fixed | Dutch Cost of Illness Study. Slobbe et al. (2006) | ||
Productivity costs | ||||
Sick leave days | Overweight women: 3.64 | Fixed | Lehnert et al. (2014) | |
Overweight men: 0 | ||||
Obese women: 5.19 | ||||
Obese men: 3.48 | ||||
Net labour participation | 72.2% | Fixed | CBS Statline (2017) | |
Working hours per week | 31.4 (6.28 per day / 5 days a week) | Fixed | CBS Statline (2017) | |
Productivity costs / hour b | €36 | Fixed | Zorginstituut Nederland (2015) |