Table 2 Discrimination and calibration statistics for predicted 5-year risk of ASCVD by PCE, PAR and FRS

 C statistics (95%CI)

0.738 (0.703, 0.773)

0.731 (0.696, 0.766)

0.761 (0.728, 0.794)

 D statistics

1.259 (1.253,1.265)

1.260 (1.254,1.266)

1.427 (1.421,1.433)

 R² statistics (%)

27.46 (27.27, 27.65)

27.50 (27.31, 27.69)

32.72 (32.54, 32.91)

 Brier Score ^a

0.0491

0.0486

0.0487

 Greenwood-Nam-D’agostino (GND) calibration χ^{2 c}

86.26

13.50

48.13

 P value for GND test

0.000

0.009

0.000

 Observed events ^b

153.94

153.94

153.94

 Predicted events

46.11

118.09

74.86

 P/O

0.30

0.77

0.49

 Average predicted risk (%)

2.5

6.4

4.1

 Average observed risk (%)

8.4

8.4

8.4

 Proportion of predicted risk> 5% (%)

16.51

54.05

29.31

 C statistics (95%CI)

0.727 (0.689, 0.766)

0.727 (0.684, 0.770)

0.740 (0.703, 0.777)

 D statistics

1.293 (1.286,1.300)

1.301 (1.294,1.308)

1.355 (1.348,1.362)

 R² statistics (%)

28.54 (28.32,28.76)

28.79 (28.57,29.01)

30.48 (30.26,30.70)

 Brier Score a

0.0525

0.0523

0.0529

 Greenwood-Nam-D’agostino (GND) calibration χ^{2 d}

39.86

4.11

13.58

 P value for GND test

0.000

0.534

0.019

 Observed events ^b

137.9

137.9

137.9

 Predicted events

70.87

144.72

145.8

 P/O

0.51

1.05

1.06

 Average predicted risk (%)

4.7

9.6

9.7

 Average observed risk (%)

9.1

9.1

9.1

 Proportion of predicted risk> 5% (%)

55.74

49.92

57.31