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Table 2 Discrimination and calibration statistics for predicted 5-year risk of ASCVD by PCE, PAR and FRS

From: External validation of three atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk equations in rural areas of Xinjiang, China

  PCE PAR FRS
Women
 C statistics (95%CI) 0.738 (0.703, 0.773) 0.731 (0.696, 0.766) 0.761 (0.728, 0.794)
 D statistics 1.259 (1.253,1.265) 1.260 (1.254,1.266) 1.427 (1.421,1.433)
 R2 statistics (%) 27.46 (27.27, 27.65) 27.50 (27.31, 27.69) 32.72 (32.54, 32.91)
 Brier Score a 0.0491 0.0486 0.0487
 Greenwood-Nam-D’agostino (GND) calibration χ2 c 86.26 13.50 48.13
P value for GND test 0.000 0.009 0.000
 Observed events b 153.94 153.94 153.94
 Predicted events 46.11 118.09 74.86
 P/O 0.30 0.77 0.49
 Average predicted risk (%) 2.5 6.4 4.1
 Average observed risk (%) 8.4 8.4 8.4
 Proportion of predicted risk> 5% (%) 16.51 54.05 29.31
Men
 C statistics (95%CI) 0.727 (0.689, 0.766) 0.727 (0.684, 0.770) 0.740 (0.703, 0.777)
 D statistics 1.293 (1.286,1.300) 1.301 (1.294,1.308) 1.355 (1.348,1.362)
 R2 statistics (%) 28.54 (28.32,28.76) 28.79 (28.57,29.01) 30.48 (30.26,30.70)
 Brier Score a 0.0525 0.0523 0.0529
 Greenwood-Nam-D’agostino (GND) calibration χ2 d 39.86 4.11 13.58
P value for GND test 0.000 0.534 0.019
 Observed events b 137.9 137.9 137.9
 Predicted events 70.87 144.72 145.8
 P/O 0.51 1.05 1.06
 Average predicted risk (%) 4.7 9.6 9.7
 Average observed risk (%) 9.1 9.1 9.1
 Proportion of predicted risk> 5% (%) 55.74 49.92 57.31
  1. Abbreviations: P Predicted events, O Observed events, PCE Pooled Cohort Risk Equations, PAR China-PAR risk equation, FRS Framingham Risk Score 2008
  2. aLower score indicates better accuracy of risk estimates;
  3. bAdjusted using Kaplan-Meier method;
  4. cDeciles were set as 5 to ensure that each decile contained at least 5 events
  5. dDeciles were set as 6 to ensure that each decile contained at least 5 events