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Table 3 Indicators of the model performance to detect the beginning of an epidemic period (goodness of the Moving Epidemic Method) (MEM) for detecting the epidemics Morocco

From: Establishing seasonal and alert influenza thresholds in Morocco

Used method

Estimators of goodness

MEM

MEM

Historical data

2005/2006 to 2016/2017

2014/2015 to 2016/2017

Type of data used

Influenza Like Illnessproportion (%ILI)

Compositea

Sensitivity

0.81

0.76

Specificity

0.92

0.95

Positive predictive value

0.71

0.80

Negative predictive value

0.95

0.93

Percent agreement

0.90

0.91

Matthews correlation coefficient

0.70

0.72

  1. aILI% multiplied by percent of ILI with laboratory-confirmed influenza