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Table 1 Input Parameters in the Decision-making Model and Source

From: Daily almond consumption in cardiovascular disease prevention via LDL-C change in the U.S. population: a cost-effectiveness analysis

ParameterValueDistributionSource
Probability   
Increase in LDL-C29% (almond)Tan et al. [8]a
 41% ± 12% (almond)BetaTan et al.[8]a
 44% (non-almond)Tan et al.[8]a
For CVD patients25% (almond)Chen et al. [11]
 35% (non-almond)Chen et al. [11]
Developing MI0.38%Pikula et al. [12]
 3.75%*Pikula et al. [12]
 1.04% ± 0.91%BetaMultiple sources [12, 13]
Death due to MI14%Benjamin et al. [14]
Taking CABG0.11%Epstein et al. [15]
Death due to CABG1.85%Eisenberg et al. [16]
Taking PTCA0.37%Epstein et al. [15]
Death due to PTCA1.82%Benjamin et al. [14]
Developing stroke0.25%Pikula et al. [12]
 2.46%*Pikula et al. [12]
 0.099% ± 0.11%BetaMultiple sources [12, 17, 18]
Recurrent stroke30.33%Benjamin et al. [14]
Death due to stroke21.82%Benjamin et al. [14]
Cost (in 2012 USD)   
Almond$156bTrader Joe’s [19]
 $1369*Trader Joe’s [19]
Organic almond$470US market price [20]
CABG Procedure$37,448Cohen et al. [21]
Sensitivity$29,609Caruba et al. [22]
Follow-up of CABG$6918Cohen et al. [21]
 $60,548*Cohen et al. [21]
Failure to Rescue after CABG$5733cCohen et al. [21]
PCI Procedure$31,036Cohen et al. [21]
Sensitivity$13,688Caruba et al. [22]
Follow-up of PCI$9489Cohen et al. [21]
 $83,050*Cohen et al. [21]
Failure to Rescue after PCI$9243cCohen et al. [21]
Treatment to Acute MI$14,697Cohen et al. [21]
Treatment to Chronic Heart Disease$3365Caruba et al. [22]
 $45,709*Caruba et al. [22]
Recurrent Stroke$61,988Engel-Nitz et al. [23]
 $330,528*Engel-Nitz et al. [23]
Death due to Stroke$11,377Russo & Andrews [24]
Utilities   
Disease free1 QALY
 8.75 QALYs*
Successful CABG0.82 QALYElizabeth et al. [25]
 7.14 QALYs*Elizabeth et al. [25]
Successful PCI0.85 QALYElizabeth et al. [25]
 7.44 QALYs*Elizabeth et al. [25]
Chronic Heart Disease0.86 QALYBakhai et al. [26]
 7.53 QALYs*Bakhai et al. [26]
Recurrent Stroke0.48 QALYNelson et al. [27]
 4.20 QALYs*Nelson et al. [27]
Death0 QALY
  1. Abbreviations: CABG = coronary artery bypass graft; LDL-C = low-density lipoprotein cholesterol; MI = myocardial infarction; PCI = percutaneous coronary intervention; PTCA = percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty. Note that PTCA and PCI were used interchangeably in data collection. aData is obtained from the request to author. bCost of almond was calculated based on the price of $4.99/lb. and consuming 42.5 g almond every day. cFailure to rescue after procedures includes the cost of re-hospitalizations, physician fees, outpatient services, and medication cost. *Highlighted data was used in the 10-year model