Pre-T2 mortality risk (95% CI)c | Post-T2 mortality risk (95% CI)c | Totala mortality risk (95% CI)c | Risk differenceb (95% CI)c | Risk Ratiob (95% CI)c | PAF (95% CI)c | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Observed risks | ||||||||||||
Among whole cohort | 4.58 | (4.31, 4.86) | 5.40 | (5.10, 5.71) | 9.74 | (9.35, 10.13) | ||||||
Among followed-upd | 4.58 | (4.31, 4.86) | 4.16 | (3.79, 4.53) | 8.55 | (8.12, 8.99) | ||||||
Estimated risks under no intervention | ||||||||||||
Natural course | 4.59 | (4.30, 4.87) | 5.54 | (5.22, 5.87) | 9.88 | (9.47, 10.28) | Ref | Ref | ||||
Estimated risks under hypothetical interventionse | ||||||||||||
Intervene on everyone | ||||||||||||
Control interventions (T1 and T2) | ||||||||||||
Low PA & low MDS | 5.68 | (4.87, 6.50) | 7.66 | (6.38, 8.94) | 12.90 | (11.54, 14.27) | 3.03 | (1.75, 4.30) | 1.31 | (1.18, 1.44) | −0.31 | (−0.44, − 0.18) |
Medium PA & MDS | 4.53 | (3.87, 5.19) | 4.66 | (3.79, 5.52) | 8.97 | (7.97, 9.98) | −0.90 | (−1.86, 0.06) | 0.91 | (0.81, 1.01) | 0.09 | (−0.01, 0.19) |
Low PA | 5.15 | (4.63, 5.68) | 7.10 | (6.18, 8.03) | 11.89 | (10.90, 12.88) | 2.01 | (1.13, 2.89) | 1.20 | (1.11, 1.29) | −0.20 | (− 0.29, − 0.11) |
Low MDS | 4.63 | (4.08, 5.17) | 6.39 | (5.68, 7.10) | 10.72 | (9.88, 11.55) | 0.84 | (0.15, 1.53) | 1.09 | (1.02, 1.15) | − 0.09 | (− 0.15, − 0.02) |
Single interventions (T1) | ||||||||||||
High PA | 4.35 | (3.69, 5.00) | 4.94 | (4.19, 5.70) | 9.08 | (8.12, 10.03) | −0.80 | (−1.67, 0.07) | 0.92 | (0.83, 1.01) | 0.08 | (−0.01, 0.17) |
High MDS | 4.71 | (3.94, 5.49) | 5.18 | (4.44, 5.93) | 9.65 | (8.67, 10.63) | −0.22 | (−1.13, 0.68) | 0.98 | (0.89, 1.07) | 0.02 | (−0.07, 0.11) |
High PA & MDS | 4.63 | (3.24, 6.03) | 4.40 | (3.04, 5.77) | 8.83 | (6.95, 10.71) | −1.05 | (−2.90, 0.81) | 0.89 | (0.71, 1.08) | 0.11 | (−0.08, 0.29) |
Repeated interventions (T1 and T2) | ||||||||||||
High PA | 4.35 | (3.69, 5.00) | 4.39 | (3.58, 5.19) | 8.54 | (7.56, 9.53) | −1.33 | (−2.23, − 0.43) | 0.87 | (0.77, 0.96) | 0.13 | (0.04, 0.23) |
High MDS | 4.71 | (3.94, 5.48) | 4.73 | (3.93, 5.54) | 9.22 | (8.17, 10.27) | −0.65 | (−1.64, 0.33) | 0.93 | (0.83, 1.03) | 0.07 | (−0.03, 0.17) |
High PA & MDS | 4.63 | (3.24, 6.03) | 3.59 | (2.22, 4.96) | 8.06 | (6.25, 9.87) | −1.82 | (−3.60, −0.03) | 0.82 | (0.64, 1.00) | 0.18 | (0.00, 0.36) |
Intervene on obese only | ||||||||||||
Control interventions (T1 and T2) | ||||||||||||
Low PA & MDS | 4.73 | (4.42, 5.03) | 5.86 | (5.48, 6.24) | 10.31 | (9.85, 10.77) | 0.43 | (0.24, 0.62) | 1.04 | (1.02, 1.06) | ||
Medium PA & MDS | 4.56 | (4.26, 4.87) | 5.33 | (4.99, 5.67) | 9.65 | (9.23, 10.08) | −0.22 | (−0.40, −0.05) | 0.98 | (0.96, 1.00) | ||
Low PA | 4.66 | (4.36, 4.95) | 5.75 | (5.40, 6.09) | 10.14 | (9.71, 10.56) | 0.26 | (0.13, 0.39) | 1.03 | (1.01, 1.04) | ||
Low MDS | 4.60 | (4.31, 4.90) | 5.67 | (5.33, 6.02) | 10.02 | (9.59, 10.44) | 0.14 | (0.02, 0.26) | 1.01 | (1.00, 1.03) | ||
Single interventions (T1) | ||||||||||||
High PA | 4.54 | (4.25, 4.83) | 5.45 | (5.11, 5.78) | 9.74 | (9.31, 10.17) | −0.14 | (−0.30, 0.02) | 0.99 | (0.97, 1.00) | ||
High MDS | 4.60 | (4.29, 4.90) | 5.51 | (5.16, 5.86) | 9.85 | (9.42, 10.29) | −0.02 | (− 0.19, 0.14) | 1.00 | (0.98, 1.01) | ||
High PA & MDS | 4.58 | (4.23, 4.92) | 5.36 | (5.00, 5.73) | 9.70 | (9.22, 10.17) | −0.18 | (−0.46, 0.10) | 0.98 | (0.95, 1.01) | ||
Repeated interventions (T1 and T2) | ||||||||||||
High PA | 4.54 | (4.25, 4.83) | 5.29 | (4.95, 5.64) | 9.59 | (9.17, 10.02) | −0.28 | (−0.45, − 0.12) | 0.97 | (0.95, 0.99) | ||
High MDS | 4.60 | (4.28, 4.91) | 5.39 | (5.04, 5.75) | 9.74 | (9.30, 10.18) | −0.14 | (−0.33, 0.06) | 0.99 | (0.97, 1.01) | ||
High PA & MDS | 4.58 | (4.23, 4.93) | 5.15 | (4.78, 5.52) | 9.49 | (9.01, 9.97) | −0.38 | (−0.67, − 0.10) | 0.96 | (0.93, 0.99) |