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Table 3 Estimated cumulative mortality risks per 100 people associated with hypothetical interventions on physical activity (PA) and Mediterranean diet score (MDS)

From: Sustained adherence to a Mediterranean diet and physical activity on all-cause mortality in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study: application of the g-formula

 Pre-T2 mortality risk (95% CI)cPost-T2 mortality risk (95% CI)cTotala mortality risk (95% CI)cRisk differenceb
(95% CI)c
Risk Ratiob
(95% CI)c
PAF
(95% CI)c
Observed risks
 Among whole cohort4.58(4.31, 4.86)5.40(5.10, 5.71)9.74(9.35, 10.13)      
 Among followed-upd4.58(4.31, 4.86)4.16(3.79, 4.53)8.55(8.12, 8.99)      
Estimated risks under no intervention
 Natural course4.59(4.30, 4.87)5.54(5.22, 5.87)9.88(9.47, 10.28)Ref Ref   
Estimated risks under hypothetical interventionse
Intervene on everyone
Control interventions (T1 and T2)
  Low PA & low MDS5.68(4.87, 6.50)7.66(6.38, 8.94)12.90(11.54, 14.27)3.03(1.75, 4.30)1.31(1.18, 1.44)−0.31(−0.44, − 0.18)
  Medium PA & MDS4.53(3.87, 5.19)4.66(3.79, 5.52)8.97(7.97, 9.98)−0.90(−1.86, 0.06)0.91(0.81, 1.01)0.09(−0.01, 0.19)
  Low PA5.15(4.63, 5.68)7.10(6.18, 8.03)11.89(10.90, 12.88)2.01(1.13, 2.89)1.20(1.11, 1.29)−0.20(− 0.29, − 0.11)
  Low MDS4.63(4.08, 5.17)6.39(5.68, 7.10)10.72(9.88, 11.55)0.84(0.15, 1.53)1.09(1.02, 1.15)− 0.09(− 0.15, − 0.02)
Single interventions (T1)
  High PA4.35(3.69, 5.00)4.94(4.19, 5.70)9.08(8.12, 10.03)−0.80(−1.67, 0.07)0.92(0.83, 1.01)0.08(−0.01, 0.17)
  High MDS4.71(3.94, 5.49)5.18(4.44, 5.93)9.65(8.67, 10.63)−0.22(−1.13, 0.68)0.98(0.89, 1.07)0.02(−0.07, 0.11)
  High PA & MDS4.63(3.24, 6.03)4.40(3.04, 5.77)8.83(6.95, 10.71)−1.05(−2.90, 0.81)0.89(0.71, 1.08)0.11(−0.08, 0.29)
Repeated interventions (T1 and T2)
 High PA4.35(3.69, 5.00)4.39(3.58, 5.19)8.54(7.56, 9.53)−1.33(−2.23, − 0.43)0.87(0.77, 0.96)0.13(0.04, 0.23)
  High MDS4.71(3.94, 5.48)4.73(3.93, 5.54)9.22(8.17, 10.27)−0.65(−1.64, 0.33)0.93(0.83, 1.03)0.07(−0.03, 0.17)
  High PA & MDS4.63(3.24, 6.03)3.59(2.22, 4.96)8.06(6.25, 9.87)−1.82(−3.60, −0.03)0.82(0.64, 1.00)0.18(0.00, 0.36)
Intervene on obese only
Control interventions (T1 and T2)
  Low PA & MDS4.73(4.42, 5.03)5.86(5.48, 6.24)10.31(9.85, 10.77)0.43(0.24, 0.62)1.04(1.02, 1.06)  
  Medium PA & MDS4.56(4.26, 4.87)5.33(4.99, 5.67)9.65(9.23, 10.08)−0.22(−0.40, −0.05)0.98(0.96, 1.00)  
  Low PA4.66(4.36, 4.95)5.75(5.40, 6.09)10.14(9.71, 10.56)0.26(0.13, 0.39)1.03(1.01, 1.04)  
 Low MDS4.60(4.31, 4.90)5.67(5.33, 6.02)10.02(9.59, 10.44)0.14(0.02, 0.26)1.01(1.00, 1.03)  
Single interventions (T1)
  High PA4.54(4.25, 4.83)5.45(5.11, 5.78)9.74(9.31, 10.17)−0.14(−0.30, 0.02)0.99(0.97, 1.00)  
  High MDS4.60(4.29, 4.90)5.51(5.16, 5.86)9.85(9.42, 10.29)−0.02(− 0.19, 0.14)1.00(0.98, 1.01)  
  High PA & MDS4.58(4.23, 4.92)5.36(5.00, 5.73)9.70(9.22, 10.17)−0.18(−0.46, 0.10)0.98(0.95, 1.01)  
Repeated interventions (T1 and T2)
  High PA4.54(4.25, 4.83)5.29(4.95, 5.64)9.59(9.17, 10.02)−0.28(−0.45, − 0.12)0.97(0.95, 0.99)  
  High MDS4.60(4.28, 4.91)5.39(5.04, 5.75)9.74(9.30, 10.18)−0.14(−0.33, 0.06)0.99(0.97, 1.01)  
  High PA & MDS4.58(4.23, 4.93)5.15(4.78, 5.52)9.49(9.01, 9.97)−0.38(−0.67, − 0.10)0.96(0.93, 0.99)  
  1. PA Physical activity, MDS Mediterranean Diet Score, PAF population attributable fraction, CI confidence interval. T1 is study baseline is (1995–1999), T0 is initial cohort (MCCS) recruitment (1990–1994), T2 is follow-up (2003–2007). a Estimated as: Pr (Dead) = Pr (Dead pre-T2) + Pr (Dead post-T2|Alive at T2) x Pr (Alive at T2); b Compared with natural course; c 95% normal-based bootstrap confidence intervals using 100 bootstrap samples per imputed dataset; d Death post-T2 estimated using participants followed-up at T2 – the estimator we would obtain if outcome data were available only on followed-up participants, as is often the case. eMDS groups: low (scores 0–3), medium (4–5) and high (6–9); Physical activity groups: low (e.g. walking twice a week or less), medium (e.g. jogging twice a week), high (e.g. running three or more times a week)