Table 3 Regression coefficients and variance partition coefficients for school and neighbourhood for models - reception year
| Â | Girls | Boys | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Null model | Model 1 a | Model 2 b | Null model | Model 1 a | Model 2 b | |
FIXED EFFECTS | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] |
White British (reference) | 0.34 [0.31,0.37] | 0.41 [0.38,0.45] | 0.29 [0.21,0.38] | 0.36 [0.32,0.39] | 0.43 [0.39,0.46] | 0.38 [0.30,0.47] |
Ethnicity | Â | Coefficients | Coefficients | Â | Coefficients | Coefficients |
 White other |  | −0.16 [−0.23,-0.08] P < 0.001 | −0.15 [−0.23,-0.07] P < 0.001 |  | −0.14 [−0.21,-0.06] P < 0.001 | − 0.13 [− 0.21,-0.05] P < 0.001 |
 Mixed ethnicity |  | −0.11 [− 0.18,-0.03] P = 0.002 | −0.11 [− 0.18,-0.04] P = 0.001 |  | −0.07 [− 0.15,0.00] P = 0.034 | − 0.08 [− 0.15,-0.00] P = 0.019 |
 Indian |  | − 0.47 [− 0.54,-0.41] P < 0.001 | − 0.47 [− 0.54,-0.41] P < 0.001 |  | − 0.53 [− 0.60,-0.46] P < 0.001 | −0.53 [− 0.60,-0.46] P < 0.001 |
 Pakistani |  | −0.30 [− 0.39,-0.21] P < 0.001 | −0.32 [− 0.40,-0.23] P < 0.001 |  | − 0.43 [− 0.52,-0.35] P < 0.001 | −0.45 [− 0.53,-0.36] P < 0.001 |
 Bangladeshi |  | −0.14 [− 0.28,0.01] P = 0.031 | −0.16 [− 0.30,-0.01] P = 0.016 |  | − 0.15 [− 0.30,0.00] P = 0.025 | −0.17 [− 0.33,-0.02] P = 0.014 |
 Other Asian backgrounds |  | −0.28 [− 0.38,-0.19] P < 0.001 | −0.29 [− 0.38,-0.20] P < 0.001 |  | − 0.22 [− 0.32,-0.13] P < 0.001 | −0.23 [− 0.32,-0.13] P < 0.001 |
 Black Caribbean |  | 0.08 [−0.12,0.28] P = 0.216 | 0.07 [− 0.13,0.26] P = 0.257 |  | 0.01 [− 0.18,0.20] P = 0.486 | − 0.01 [− 0.20,0.18] P = 0.465 |
 Black African |  | 0.12 [0.06,0.19] P < 0.001 | 0.11 [0.04,0.17] P < 0.001 |  | 0.18 [0.11,0.25] P < 0.001 | 0.17 [0.10,0.24] P < 0.001 |
 Other Black Backgrounds |  | 0.14 [− 0.03,0.30] P = 0.053 | 0.12 [− 0.04,0.29] P = 0.07 |  | −0.02 [− 0.20,0.15] P = 0.408 | − 0.02 [− 0.20,0.15] P = 0.392 |
 Chinese |  | −0.34 [− 0.60,-0.09] P = 0.002 | −0.33 [− 0.58,-0.08] P = 0.005 |  | −0.48 [− 0.77,-0.20] P < 0.001 | −0.46 [− 0.75,-0.18] P = 0.002 |
 Any other ethnic group |  | −0.14 [− 0.29,0.01] P = 0.033 | −0.15 [− 0.30,− 0.01] P = 0.022 |  | 0.07 [− 0.10,0.23] P = 0.214 | 0.06 [− 0.10,0.22] P = 0.231 |
Child covariates | Â | Â | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Â | Â | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] |
 Year of measurement |  |  | -0.01 [−0.02,-0.01] P = 0.001 |  |  | −0.02 [− 0.03,-0.01] P < 0.001 |
School and neighbourhood covariates | Â | Â | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Â | Â | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] |
 Neighbourhood IMD decile |  |  | 0.03 [0.02,0.04] P < 0.001 |  |  | 0.02 [0.01,0.03] P < 0.001 |
RANDOM EFFECTS | ||||||
Decomposition of variance | % variance | % variance | % variance | % variance | % variance | % variance |
 School level VPC | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
Neighbourhood level VPC | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
 Child level VPC | 98.0% | 98.5% | 99.0% | 98.2% | 98.9% | 99.0% |
MODEL FIT | DIC | DIC | DIC | DIC | DIC | DIC |
 Bayesian DIC | 40,438 | 40,179 | 40,161 | 44,696 | 44,379 | 44,357 |
Observations | 13,828 | 13,828 | 13,828 | 14,579 | 14,579 | 14,579 |