Table 3 Bias in indirect estimates in 4480 simulated populations
Outcome variable | statistic | 15–19 | 20–24 | 25–29 | 30–34 | 35–39 | 40–44 | 45–49 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Absolute bias | mean | −0.001 | − 0.001 | − 0.005 | −0.011 | − 0.017 | −0.017 | − 0.013 |
std dev | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.005 | 0.012 | 0.017 | 0.015 | 0.011 | |
median | −0.000 | −0.001 | −0.002 | − 0.004 | −0.013 | − 0.016 | −0.011 | |
Min | −0.009 | −0.006 | − 0.023 | −0.049 | − 0.069 | −0.058 | − 0.042 | |
max | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Relative bias | mean | −0.6% | −1.5% | −4.4% | −7.7% | −9.7% | −8.8% | −5.6% |
std dev | 1.0% | 1.9% | 5.6% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 5.5% | |
median | −0.1% | −0.8% | −2.5% | −4.4% | −6.3% | −6.2% | − 4.4% | |
Min | −5.0% | −9.5% | −23.7% | −36.8% | −40.5% | −31.6% | −22.6% | |
max | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Yrs before survey that estimates pertain to | mean | 1.2 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 13.7 |
Surviving women | mean | 71,427 | 61,184 | 49,658 | 37,532 | 27,968 | 22,047 | 18,238 |
Women who died from HIV/AIDS | mean | 72,539 | 62,697 | 53,827 | 45,099 | 37,243 | 30,994 | 25,212 |
Children ever born, surv women | mean | 0.27 | 1.16 | 2.37 | 3.63 | 4.62 | 5.14 | 5.40 |
Children ever born, surv women + HIV deaths | mean | 0.26 | 1.15 | 2.30 | 3.41 | 4.20 | 4.64 | 5.03 |
Dead children, surviving women | mean | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 0.22 |
Dead children, surv women + HIV deaths | mean | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.23 |
Ratio of HIV deaths to surviving women | mean | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.27 | 0.51 | 0.59 | 0.51 |