Projections of the effects of global warming on the disease burden of ischemic heart disease in the elderly in Tianjin, China

Table 1 Averaged projections of annual heat-related, cold-related and total temperature-related years of life lost from ischemic heart disease and percentage changes in the 2050s, 2070s for 19 global-scale climate change models under 3 representative concentration pathways compared with baseline 2006–2011, Tianjin, China

Periods	Projection and Change (%)	RCP2.6			RCP4.5			RCP8.5
Periods	Projection and Change (%)	Heat^a	Cold^b	Total^c	Heat^a	Cold^b	Total^c	Heat^a	Cold^b	Total^c
2050s	Projection	4702	4556	9258	4964	4410	9374	5995	4058	10,053
2050s	Change (%)	46.9%	−17.3%	6.3%	55.1%	−20.0%	7.6%	87.3%	−26.3%	15.4%
2070s	Projection	4567	4526	9102	5931	4072	10,003	8773	3271	12,044
2070s	Change (%)	43.0%	−17.8%	4.5%	85.3%	−26.1%	14.9%	174.2%	−40.6%	38.3%

^{a, b, c}Percentage change relative to annual baseline heat-related and cold-related, and total temperature-related years of life lost from ischemic heart disease is 3200 years, 5508 years, and 8708 years, respectively. The unit of years of life lost projection is year

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