Table 5 Posterior estimates of interventions’ effects at national and sub-national scale on U5MR adjusted for confounders
Geographical scale | Malaria | WASH | Reproductive health | |||||
%P_ITNA | %P_ITNU | Improved water | Improved sanitation | Family planning | IPT | Skilled delivery | Postnatal care | |
HRR (95% BCI) | HRR (95% BCI) | HRR (95% BCI) | HRR (95% BCI) | HRR (95% BCI) | HRR (95% BCI) | HRR (95% BCI) | HRR (95% BCI) | |
National | a0.75 (0.63, 0.84)* | 0.88 (0.83, 0.94)* | 0.76 (0.70, 0.81)* | 0.86 (0.74, 0.91)* | 1.04 (0.92, 1.10) | 0.74 (0.67, 0.97)* | 0.84 (0.78, 0.90)* | 0.80 (0.74, 0.89)* |
Region | ||||||||
Central 1 | 0.54 (0.35, 0.81)* | 0.56 (0.51, 0.63)* | 0.99 (0.91, 1.14) | 1.13 (0.89, 1.36) | 1.29 (0.82, 2.08) | 0.73 (0.51, 0.98)* | 1.09 (0.84, 2.26) | 0.82 (0.61, 0.96)* |
Central 2 | 0.63 (0.51, 0.85)* | 0.94 (0.85, 1.07) | 0.87 (0.67, 0.98)* | 0.99 (0.79, 1.23) | 0.70 (0.46, 0.85)* | 0.82 (0.57, 1.72) | 1.06 (0.80, 1.22) | 0.73 (0.63, 0.97)* |
East-Central | 0.98 (0.73, 1.33) | 1.02 (0.90, 1.13) | 0.82 (0.70, 0.91)* | 1.25 (0.76, 1.90) | 1.20 (0.85, 1.98) | 0.83 (0.58, 1.12) | 1.25 (0.94, 1.62) | 0.76 (0.65, 0.95)* |
Kampala | 0.70 (0.51, 0.87)* | 0.81 (0.73, 0.97)* | 0.77 (0.69, 0.92)* | 0.89 (0.66, 1.17) | 0.85 (0.73, 0.97)* | 0.25 (0.14, 0.44)* | 0.81 (0.72,0.92)* | 0.58 (0.50, 0.78)* |
Mid-Eastern | 1.04 (0.45, 2.36) | 0.87 (0.67, 1.31) | 0.71 (0.59, 0.77)* | 0.84 (0.65, 1.11) | 1.29 (0.93, 1.88) | 0.35 (0.23, 0.73)* | 1.15 (0.72, 1.58) | 0.92 (0.68, 1.17) |
Mid-North | 0.82 (0.54, 1.15) | 0.77 (0.62, 0.87)* | 0.50 (0.38, 0.57)* | 1.02 (0.76, 1.29) | 1.03 (0.79, 1.28) | 1.12 (0.64, 1.50) | 0.81 (0.61, 0.95)* | 1.05 (0.58, 1.29) |
Mid-Western | 0.46 (0.21, 0.84)* | 1.02 (0.91, 1.35) | 1.04 (0.81, 1.41) | 1.01 (0.77, 1.17) | 1.00 (0.48, 1.56) | 0.60 (0.46, 0.85)* | 0.49 (0.40, 0.68)* | 0.70 (0.45, 0.84)* |
North-East | 1.49 (0.96, 2.14) | 1.23 (0.99, 1.39) | 1.09 (0.92, 1.42) | 0.50 (0.39, 0.66)* | 0.77 (0.62, 0.89)* | 0.83 (0.56, 1.28) | 0.77 (0.68, 0.86)* | 1.06 (0.87, 1.35) |
South-West | 0.34 (0.22, 0.63)* | 0.75 (0.64, 0.87)* | 0.89 (0.80, 1.02) | 0.51 (0.28, 0.67)* | 1.38 (0.83, 2.08) | 0.82 (0.46, 1.32) | 0.68 (0.52, 0.82)* | 0.71 (0.56, 1.21) |
West-Nile | 1.24 (0.93, 1.87) | 0.95 (0.83, 1.05) | 0.30 (0.23, 0.48)* | 0.69 (0.53, 0.87)* | 0.81 (0.65, 0.96)* | 0.68 (0.45, 0.93)* | 0.69 (0.23, 0.98)* | 0.82 (0.60, 1.24) |
Spatial parameters | Median (95% BCI) | Median (95% BCI) | Median (95% BCI) | Median (95% BCI) | Median (95% BCI) | Median (95% BCI) | Median (95% BCI) | Median (95% BCI) |
Spatially varyingb | 0.65 (0.43, 0.90) | 0.49 (0.43, 0.54) | 0.59 (0.45, 0.64) | 0.63 (0.57, 1.11) | 0.59 (0.38, 0.84) | 0.58 (0.48, 1.03) | 0.54 (0.35, 0.84) | 0.51 (0.37, 0.47) |
Spatial process | 0.29 (0.16, 0.34) | 0.30 (0.21, 0.36) | 0.21 (0.15, 0.25) | 0.23 (0.19, 0.27) | 0.27 (0.19, 0.31) | 0.15 (0.11, 0.20) | 0.31 (0.19, 0.41) | 0.29 (0.16, 0.34) |
Range (km)c | 3.33 (0.55, 5.83) | 1.06 (0.32, 4.21) | 0.46 (0.35, 3.83) | 0.56 (0.36, 1.84) | 0.81 (0.31, 1.38) | 0.37 (0.32, 3.49) | 0.71 (0.32, 3.18) | 3.33 (0.53, 5.83) |
Other parameters | ||||||||
Shape parameterd | 0.44 (0.41, 0.48) | 0.41 (0.36, 0.49) | 0.35 (0.32, 0.38) | 0.38 (0.28, 0.42) | 0.30 (0.27, 0.36) | 0.37 (0.31, 0.43) | 0.44 (0.39, 0.47) | 0.46 (0.42, 0.53) |
Confounders; socio-demographic and environmental/climatic factors, *significant and protective, HRR; Hazard rate ratio, %P_ITNA; Percentage of population with access to an ITN within their household, %P_ITNU; Percentage of existing ITNs used by the population in a household the previous night of the survey, a Intervention coverage was modeled on a standardized scale; therefore results are interpreted as associations. The coverage of P_ITNA was associated with a reduction in the mortality rate of 0.25; (HR = 0.75; 95% BCI: 0.63, 0.84), bIndicates the degree of variation in associations between interventions and mortality in the country, cMeasures distance after which spatial correlation between mortality at clusters becomes negligible and dDescribes the trend in the baseline mortality hazard over time | ||||||||
Geographical scale | Breastfeeding | Vaccinations | Micronutrients | Treatments | ||||
Within 1 h | DPT | Measles | VitaminA_sup | Deworming | ORS or RHF | ACT | ||
HRR (95% BCI) | HRR (95% BCI) | HRR (95% BCI) | HRR (95% BCI) | HRR (95% BCI) | HRR (95% BCI) | HRR (95% BCI) | ||
National | 0.70 (0.51, 0.86)* | 0.85 (0.72, 0.97)* | 0.82 (0.69, 0.89)* | 0.88 (0.78, 0.97)* | 0.89 (0.84, 0.94)* | 0.86 (0.78, 0.92)* | 0.60 (0.11, 0.79)* | |
Region | ||||||||
Central 1 | 0.55 (0.51, 0.92)* | 0.60 (0.44, 0.81)* | 0.63 (0.39, 0.88)* | 0.74 (0.58, 0.97)* | 0.76 (0.37, 1.69) | 0.30 (0.21, 0.74)* | 0.41 (0.11, 0.94)* | |
Central 2 | 0.63 (0.54, 1.43) | 0.95 (0.75, 1,23) | 0.79 (0.48, 1.47) | 0.86 (0.64, 1.15) | 1.25 (0.78, 1.89) | 1.27 (0.79, 1.42) | 0.56 (0.31, 1.10) | |
East-Central | 0.88 (0.73, 1.72) | 0.74 (0.55, 1.07) | 0.97 (0.61, 1.36) | 1.09 (0.81, 1.53) | 1.08 (0.93, 1.24) | 1.35 (0.89, 2.72) | 0.84 (0.54, 1.52) | |
Kampala | 0.53 (0.39, 0.91)* | 0.82 (0.70, 1.25) | 0.63 (0.29, 0.94)* | 0.77 (0.56, 1.17) | 0.72 (0.60, 0.89)* | 0.34 (0.18, 0.72)* | 0.32 (0.09, 0.80)* | |
Mid-Eastern | 0.93 (0.83, 1.90) | 0.67 (0.47, 0.93)* | 1.38 (0.85, 2.01) | 1.12 (0.64, 2.20) | 0.50 (0.23, 1.42) | 2.30 (0.79, 2.72) | 1.33 (0.78, 1.78) | |
Mid-North | 0.91 (0.83, 1.46) | 0.69 (0.38, 0.85)* | 0.71 (0.47, 1.31) | 1.05 (0.73, 1.63) | 1.16 (0.79, 1.88) | 1.05 (0.46, 1.34) | 0.77 (0.40, 1.66) | |
Mid-Western | 0.71 (0.68, 1.27) | 1.12 (0.76, 1.42) | 0.88 (0.55, 1.21) | 1.12 (0.78, 1.63) | 0.93 (0.73, 1.14) | 0.92 (0.68, 1.21) | 0.49 (0.22, 0.79)* | |
North-East | 0.98 (0.91, 1.69) | 0.96 (0.73, 1.32) | 1.29 (0.93, 1.60) | 1.31 (0.93, 1.65) | 1.18 (0.99, 1.30) | 1.10 (0.86, 1.42) | 0.89 (0.72, 1.44) | |
South-West | 0.56 (0.42, 0.82)* | 1.61 (0.63, 2.25) | 0.64 (0.38, 0.92)* | 0.63 (0.43, 0.81)* | 0.74 (0.62, 0.92)* | 0.75 (0.54, 0.85)* | 0.40 (0.23, 0.61)* | |
West-Nile | 0.63 (0.55, 0.98)* | 0.86 (0.62, 0.98)* | 0.65 (0.29, 1.23) | 0.49 (0.34, 0.67)* | 0.85 (0.73, 0.98)* | 0.75 (0.28, 1.75) | 0.66 (0.29, 3.81) | |
Spatial parameters | Median (95% BCI) | Median (95% BCI) | Median (95% BCI) | Median (95% BCI) | Median (95% BCI) | Median (95% BCI) | Median (95% BCI) | |
Spatially varyingb (Ωd) | 0.50 (0.33, 0.72) | 0.62 (0.43. 0.80) | 0.52 (0.34, 1.12) | 0.56 (0.36, 0.75) | 0.58 (0.36, 0.98) | 0.79 (0.52, 0.92) | 0.66 (0.42, 1.56) | |
Spatial process (σ2) | 0.13 (0.09, 0.22) | 0.27 (0.19, 0.36) | 0.23 (0.18, 0.30) | 0.15 (0.12, 0.22) | 0.27 (0.22, 0.34) | 0.20 (0.18, 0.24) | 0.36 (0.27, 0.51) | |
Range (km)c (R) | 0.71 (0.31, 3.78) | 0.45 (0.31, 0.48) | 0.70 (0.33, 1.51) | 0.48 (0.31, 1.82) | 0.57 (0.35, 1.56) | 0.44 (0.35, 1.68) | 0.60 (0.32, 2.01) | |
Other parameters | ||||||||
Shape parameterd (r) | 0.37 (0.34, 0.41) | 0.41 (0.33, 0.45) | 0.40 (0.38, 0.44) | 0.42 (0.38, 0.46) | 0.35 (0.31, 0.42) | 0.37 (0.32, 0.43) | 0.44 (0.40, 0.53) | |
Confounders; socio-economic, demographic and environmental/climatic factors,*significant and protective, HRR; Hazard rate ratio, ORS or RHF; Percentage of children with diarrhoea given fluid from ORS sachets or recommended home fluids, ACT; Percentage of children with fever during the 2 weeks prior to the survey and took artemisinin-combination therapy, bIndicates the degree of variation in associations between interventions and mortality in the country, cMeasures distance after which spatial correlation between mortality at clusters becomes negligible and dDescribes the trend in the baseline mortality hazard rate over time | ||||||||