Skip to main content

Table 5 Estimated impacts of each privatisation scenario on alcohol-related harm based on ARIMA analyses of Swedish time series data

From: Estimating the public health impact of disbanding a government alcohol monopoly: application of new methods to the case of Sweden

Harm measure

Total Sweden 2014

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

N, % (95% CIs)

N, % (95% CIs)

Alcoholic cirrhosis deaths

429

160 (111–211)

273 (186–371)

+ 37.2% (25.9–45.2%)

+ 63.7% (43.3–86.5%)

Injury deaths

1833

399 (61–797)

660 (96–1384)

+ 21.8% (3.3–45.5%)

+ 36.0% (5.3–75.5%)

Suicide deaths

1142

291 (161–436)

485 (261–750)

+ 25.5%)

+ 42.4% (22.9–65.6%)

Total deaths

3404

850 (334–1444)

1418 (543–2505)

+ 25.0% (9.8–42.4%))

+ 41.7% (16.0–73.6%)

Assault crimes

83,324

17,407 (13,549-21,225)

28,680 (22,063-35,369)

+ 20.9% (16.3–25.5)

+ 34.4% (26.5–42.4%)

Drink-driving

13,769

4669 (2388-7273)

7940 (3900-12,903)

+ 33.9% (17.3–52.8%)

+ 57.7% (28.3%93.7%)