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Table 2 Estimated cumulative transition hazard ratios along with 95% confidence bands at elected time points for a set of covariates given by age, gender, race/ethnicity, CCI and dual eligibility. For age and CCI, the odds ratio is defined as the ratio of odds for a unit increment of the variable. For gender, race/ethnicity and dual eligibility the ratio is calculated relative to males, whites, and ineligibility, respectively

From: Progression of diabetes, ischemic heart disease, and chronic kidney disease in a three chronic conditions multistate model

States Days Age Gender (Females vs. Males) Race/Ethnicity CCI Dual Eligibility
From To Asian vs. White NHPI vs. white Others vs. White
DM DM + IHD 365 0.994 (0.990, 0.997) 0.863 (0.799, 0.932) 0.971 (0.875, 1.077) 1.009 (0.907, 1.122) 1.014 (0.908, 1.132) 0.940 (0.912, 0.968) 1.183 (1.061, 1.319)
730 0.996 (0.993, 0.999) 0.849 (0.793, 0.910) 1.010 (0.920, 1.108) 1.041 (0.947, 1.145) 1.073 (0.972, 1.185) 0.936 (0.912, 0.961) 1.138 (1.032, 1.254)
1095 0.997 (0.994, 1.000) 0.848 (0.793, 0.908) 1.055 (0.963, 1.155) 1.122 (1.022, 1.231) 1.111 (1.008, 1.224) 0.934 (0.910, 0.958) 1.082 (0.983, 1.190)
1460 0.999 (0.995, 1.002) 0.904 (0.842, 0.971) 1.029 (0.935, 1.132) 1.062 (0.963, 1.171) 1.074 (0.970, 1.189) 0.927 (0.902, 0.952) 1.088 (0.984, 1.203)
DM DM + CKD 365 0.989 (0.986, 0.992) 0.944 (0.879, 1.013) 1.258 (1.143, 1.384) 1.156 (1.049, 1.274) 1.275 (1.152, 1.411) 0.941 (0.916, 0.967) 0.974 (0.882, 1.076)
730 0.990 (0.987, 0.993) 0.978 (0.916, 1.043) 1.241 (1.138, 1.354) 1.143 (1.046, 1.249) 1.214 (1.107, 1.332) 0.938 (0.915, 0.961) 0.996 (0.909, 1.091)
1095 0.991 (0.988, 0.994) 0.972 (0.911, 1.037) 1.241 (1.137, 1.353) 1.160 (1.062, 1.268) 1.219 (1.111, 1.337) 0.942 (0.919, 0.965) 0.992 (0.905, 1.086)
1460 0.992 (0.989, 0.996) 0.951 (0.888, 1.018) 1.234 (1.125, 1.354) 1.161 (1.056, 1.276) 1.217 (1.103, 1.342) 0.947 (0.922, 0.972) 1.042 (0.946, 1.148)
IHD DM + IHD 365 0.996 (0.992, 1.000) 0.750 (0.694, 0.810) 1.021 (0.920, 1.134) 1.167 (1.049, 1.299) 1.102 (0.986, 1.232) 0.956 (0.928, 0.984) 1.064 (0.953, 1.187)
730 0.995 (0.992, 0.999) 0.802 (0.747, 0.862) 1.056 (0.959, 1.163) 1.140 (1.033, 1.258) 1.073 (0.968, 1.189) 0.960 (0.934, 0.987) 1.050 (0.949, 1.162)
1095 0.996 (0.993, 0.999) 0.805 (0.749, 0.864) 1.075 (0.977, 1.184) 1.142 (1.035, 1.259) 1.046 (0.945, 1.159) 0.956 (0.930, 0.982) 1.111 (1.005, 1.228)
1460 0.997 (0.994, 1.001) 0.789 (0.732, 0.850) 1.085 (0.982, 1.199) 1.150 (1.038, 1.274) 1.087 (0.977, 1.209) 0.949 (0.922, 0.976) 1.111 (1.000, 1.234)
IHD IHD + CKD 365 1.022 (1.018, 1.026) 0.797 (0.736, 0.863) 0.970 (0.871, 1.079) 0.908 (0.814, 1.013) 0.999 (0.891, 1.119) 1.056 (1.024, 1.088) 1.234 (1.103, 1.380)
730 1.022 (1.019, 1.026) 0.813 (0.755, 0.875) 0.924 (0.836, 1.020) 0.884 (0.799, 0.978) 0.964 (0.867, 1.071) 1.039 (1.010, 1.069) 1.239 (1.117, 1.374)
1095 1.022 (1.019, 1.026) 0.813 (0.757, 0.875) 0.951 (0.863, 1.049) 0.890 (0.805, 0.983) 1.004 (0.905, 1.114) 1.028 (1.000, 1.057) 1.166 (1.052, 1.291)
1460 1.022 (1.018, 1.025) 0.807 (0.748, 0.871) 0.922 (0.832, 1.022) 0.864 (0.778, 0.960) 1.012 (0.907, 1.129) 1.018 (0.988, 1.048) 1.131 (1.016, 1.260)
CKD DM + CKD 365 0.987 (0.982, 0.991) 0.876 (0.797, 0.963) 1.420 (1.251, 1.612) 1.217 (1.069, 1.385) 1.404 (1.227, 1.606) 0.993 (0.957, 1.029) 0.971 (0.850, 1.109)
730 0.989 (0.985, 0.993) 0.911 (0.835, 0.993) 1.415 (1.259, 1.591) 1.230 (1.092, 1.386) 1.425 (1.258, 1.613) 0.983 (0.951, 1.016) 0.942 (0.834, 1.064)
1095 0.989 (0.985, 0.993) 0.941 (0.862, 1.027) 1.402 (1.246, 1.576) 1.211 (1.074, 1.365) 1.389 (1.226, 1.574) 0.964 (0.932, 0.997) 0.911 (0.806, 1.031)
1460 0.990 (0.986, 0.994) 0.920 (0.841, 1.006) 1.390 (1.232, 1.567) 1.254 (1.109, 1.418) 1.404 (1.236, 1.596) 0.962 (0.929, 0.995) 0.916 (0.808, 1.038)
CKD IHD + CKD 365 1.014 (1.009, 1.018) 0.832 (0.755, 0.917) 0.972 (0.853, 1.109) 0.879 (0.768, 1.005) 0.954 (0.829, 1.096) 1.052 (1.014, 1.092) 1.131 (0.986, 1.298)
730 1.013 (1.009, 1.017) 0.880 (0.807, 0.959) 0.987 (0.879, 1.108) 0.893 (0.793, 1.005) 0.944 (0.835, 1.068) 1.039 (1.005, 1.074) 1.101 (0.975, 1.242)
1095 1.013 (1.009, 1.017) 0.938 (0.861, 1.021) 0.990 (0.883, 1.110) 0.860 (0.765, 0.966) 0.917 (0.813, 1.036) 1.037 (1.004, 1.071) 1.046 (0.928, 1.178)
1460 1.014 (1.010, 1.019) 0.960 (0.878, 1.050) 0.964 (0.855, 1.087) 0.900 (0.796, 1.018) 0.936 (0.823, 1.063) 1.023 (0.989, 1.059) 1.111 (0.980, 1.260)
DM + IHD DM + IHD + CKD 365 1.000 (0.993, 1.006) 0.674 (0.583, 0.779) 0.922 (0.758, 1.121) 0.974 (0.798, 1.190) 1.036 (0.841, 1.275) 0.970 (0.917, 1.025) 1.353 (1.103, 1.660)
730 0.998 (0.992, 1.003) 0.713 (0.634, 0.802) 1.002 (0.856, 1.173) 1.007 (0.857, 1.183) 1.129 (0.954, 1.335) 0.961 (0.919, 1.005) 1.354 (1.148, 1.597)
1095 0.996 (0.991, 1.001) 0.737 (0.663, 0.820) 1.078 (0.934, 1.244) 1.067 (0.922, 1.235) 1.136 (0.976, 1.323) 0.954 (0.916, 0.994) 1.241 (1.068, 1.441)
1460 0.999 (0.994, 1.004) 0.731 (0.660, 0.810) 1.089 (0.949, 1.250) 1.070 (0.930, 1.232) 1.154 (0.997, 1.336) 0.950 (0.913, 0.988) 1.256 (1.087, 1.451)
DM + CKD DM + IHD + CKD 365 0.980 (0.973, 0.987) 0.830 (0.715, 0.964) 1.570 (1.283, 1.920) 1.206 (0.982, 1.482) 1.236 (0.998, 1.531) 0.966 (0.912, 1.023) 1.017 (0.824, 1.255)
730 0.982 (0.977, 0.988) 0.800 (0.711, 0.900) 1.506 (1.285, 1.765) 1.161 (0.987, 1.365) 1.347 (1.138, 1.594) 0.962 (0.919, 1.006) 1.026 (0.869, 1.211)
1095 0.984 (0.979, 0.989) 0.813 (0.731, 0.904) 1.444 (1.252, 1.666) 1.158 (1.000, 1.340) 1.334 (1.146, 1.553) 0.947 (0.909, 0.986) 0.981 (0.845, 1.140)
1460 0.985 (0.980, 0.990) 0.835 (0.752, 0.927) 1.450 (1.260, 1.669) 1.218 (1.055, 1.406) 1.404 (1.209, 1.630) 0.941 (0.904, 0.979) 0.979 (0.845, 1.134)
IHD + CKD DM + IHD + CKD 365 1.005 (0.996, 1.014) 0.677 (0.558, 0.822) 1.367 (1.053, 1.775) 1.242 (0.951, 1.621) 1.296 (0.982, 1.711) 0.981 (0.911, 1.057) 1.307 (0.995, 1.717)
730 1.008 (1.000, 1.015) 0.635 (0.543, 0.742) 1.277 (1.034, 1.576) 1.080 (0.871, 1.340) 1.273 (1.017, 1.593) 0.983 (0.926, 1.044) 1.408 (1.130, 1.756)
1095 1.006 (0.999, 1.012) 0.678 (0.589, 0.780) 1.294 (1.071, 1.563) 1.049 (0.865, 1.272) 1.188 (0.972, 1.451) 0.980 (0.929, 1.034) 1.287 (1.057, 1.568)
1460 1.006 (0.999, 1.012) 0.691 (0.602, 0.792) 1.242 (1.033, 1.493) 1.066 (0.883, 1.286) 1.172 (0.963, 1.426) 0.976 (0.926, 1.029) 1.230 (1.014, 1.491)
DM Death 365 1.007 (1.003, 1.011) 0.879 (0.809, 0.956) 1.144 (1.022, 1.280) 1.074 (0.957, 1.204) 1.138 (1.010, 1.283) 1.131 (1.096, 1.168) 1.097 (0.975, 1.233)
730 1.009 (1.004, 1.014) 0.895 (0.811, 0.988) 1.200 (1.050, 1.371) 1.016 (0.886, 1.163) 1.094 (0.950, 1.261) 1.136 (1.094, 1.180) 1.266 (1.102, 1.455)
1095 1.011 (1.006, 1.017) 0.913 (0.819, 1.019) 1.209 (1.043, 1.401) 1.025 (0.881, 1.192) 1.120 (0.957, 1.310) 1.125 (1.079, 1.173) 1.319 (1.131, 1.540)
1460 1.014 (1.008, 1.021) 0.949 (0.835, 1.080) 1.145 (0.963, 1.361) 0.966 (0.810, 1.153) 1.039 (0.865, 1.249) 1.091 (1.039, 1.146) 1.305 (1.089, 1.565)
IHD Death 365 1.030 (1.026, 1.034) 0.880 (0.810, 0.957) 0.808 (0.722, 0.904) 0.745 (0.664, 0.835) 0.885 (0.786, 0.997) 1.204 (1.166, 1.243) 1.220 (1.085, 1.372)
730 1.029 (1.025, 1.033) 0.885 (0.818, 0.958) 0.797 (0.716, 0.887) 0.731 (0.655, 0.815) 0.830 (0.741, 0.929) 1.195 (1.159, 1.232) 1.300 (1.163, 1.453)
1095 1.030 (1.026, 1.034) 0.892 (0.825, 0.964) 0.819 (0.737, 0.910) 0.729 (0.655, 0.811) 0.807 (0.722, 0.902) 1.183 (1.148, 1.219) 1.381 (1.238, 1.541)
1460 1.031 (1.027, 1.035) 0.902 (0.827, 0.982) 0.864 (0.770, 0.970) 0.758 (0.674, 0.853) 0.825 (0.729, 0.932) 1.161 (1.123, 1.200) 1.362 (1.207, 1.537)
CKD Death 365 1.027 (1.024, 1.031) 0.866 (0.803, 0.933) 0.958 (0.866, 1.060) 0.916 (0.826, 1.015) 0.928 (0.833, 1.033) 1.341 (1.303, 1.380) 1.411 (1.269, 1.568)
730 1.028 (1.025, 1.031) 0.872 (0.812, 0.936) 0.934 (0.849, 1.028) 0.851 (0.772, 0.937) 0.899 (0.813, 0.995) 1.313 (1.278, 1.349) 1.461 (1.323, 1.614)
1095 1.030 (1.026, 1.034) 0.915 (0.852, 0.984) 0.931 (0.845, 1.026) 0.859 (0.778, 0.949) 0.920 (0.829, 1.020) 1.286 (1.251, 1.322) 1.473 (1.331, 1.631)
1460 1.032 (1.028, 1.036) 0.932 (0.858, 1.013) 0.910 (0.813, 1.017) 0.915 (0.816, 1.026) 0.882 (0.783, 0.994) 1.243 (1.204, 1.283) 1.508 (1.341, 1.695)
DM + IHD Death 365 1.018 (1.007, 1.030) 0.676 (0.530, 0.862) 1.107 (0.798, 1.536) 0.908 (0.650, 1.269) 1.015 (0.717, 1.438) 1.070 (0.974, 1.175) 1.053 (0.748, 1.484)
730 1.018 (1.009, 1.027) 0.712 (0.588, 0.862) 1.094 (0.846, 1.415) 1.051 (0.808, 1.366) 1.012 (0.770, 1.330) 1.071 (0.995, 1.153) 1.051 (0.803, 1.376)
1095 1.016 (1.008, 1.024) 0.742 (0.628, 0.877) 1.135 (0.907, 1.422) 1.048 (0.833, 1.319) 1.016 (0.800, 1.290) 1.065 (0.999, 1.135) 1.091 (0.863, 1.381)
1460 1.018 (1.011, 1.025) 0.715 (0.614, 0.832) 1.066 (0.869, 1.308) 0.984 (0.798, 1.212) 1.020 (0.820, 1.267) 1.032 (0.973, 1.093) 1.299 (1.049, 1.608)
DM + CKD Death 365 1.008 (0.999, 1.017) 0.814 (0.671, 0.986) 1.409 (1.087, 1.825) 1.209 (0.928, 1.575) 1.215 (0.922, 1.600) 1.110 (1.031, 1.195) 0.820 (0.626, 1.075)
730 1.010 (1.003, 1.018) 0.833 (0.711, 0.975) 1.311 (1.061, 1.621) 1.166 (0.939, 1.448) 1.202 (0.959, 1.505) 1.085 (1.022, 1.153) 0.970 (0.777, 1.210)
1095 1.009 (1.003, 1.016) 0.819 (0.713, 0.941) 1.293 (1.072, 1.559) 1.117 (0.922, 1.352) 1.165 (0.955, 1.422) 1.067 (1.012, 1.126) 0.970 (0.798, 1.180)
1460 1.009 (1.003, 1.015) 0.834 (0.729, 0.953) 1.253 (1.047, 1.501) 1.158 (0.964, 1.392) 1.195 (0.987, 1.447) 1.050 (0.998, 1.106) 0.970 (0.803, 1.171)
IHD + CKD Death 365 1.031 (1.026, 1.037) 0.862 (0.772, 0.962) 0.973 (0.839, 1.128) 0.837 (0.719, 0.973) 0.970 (0.829, 1.135) 1.166 (1.117, 1.216) 1.363 (1.167, 1.591)
730 1.031 (1.026, 1.035) 0.840 (0.766, 0.921) 0.987 (0.872, 1.117) 0.850 (0.749, 0.965) 0.978 (0.857, 1.116) 1.149 (1.109, 1.190) 1.347 (1.183, 1.534)
1095 1.031 (1.027, 1.035) 0.849 (0.782, 0.923) 0.977 (0.874, 1.093) 0.853 (0.761, 0.956) 0.973 (0.864, 1.096) 1.138 (1.102, 1.175) 1.328 (1.181, 1.492)
1460 1.031 (1.027, 1.035) 0.840 (0.775, 0.911) 0.970 (0.869, 1.082) 0.901 (0.806, 1.007) 0.997 (0.888, 1.120) 1.131 (1.097, 1.167) 1.350 (1.204, 1.513)
DM + IHD + CKD Death 365 1.015 (1.007, 1.023) 0.610 (0.515, 0.723) 1.474 (1.172, 1.853) 1.436 (1.136, 1.815) 1.544 (1.210, 1.970) 1.032 (0.968, 1.086) 1.196 (0.941, 1.520)
730 1.013 (1.006, 1.020) 0.642 (0.558, 0.738) 1.402 (1.161, 1.692) 1.256 (1.036, 1.522) 1.433 (1.173, 1.751) 1.024 (0.974, 1.078) 1.189 (0.976, 1.447)
1095 1.012 (1.006, 1.018) 0.688 (0.609, 0.777) 1.353 (1.148, 1.595) 1.202 (1.017, 1.422) 1.439 (1.209, 1.713) 1.027 (0.989, 1.067) 1.196 (1.007, 1.420)
1460 1.011 (1.005, 1.016) 0.704 (0.628, 0.788) 1.443 (1.238, 1.682) 1.309 (1.119, 1.530) 1.481 (1.259, 1.744) 1.041 (0.995, 1.087) 1.202 (1.024, 1.411)