Table 1 Prior distributions of the parameters in the non-informative scenario
From: Exploiting routinely collected severe case data to monitor and predict influenza outbreaks
Unknown parameters | Lower limit | Upper limit | |
|---|---|---|---|
Susceptibility | π | 0 | 1 |
Initial number of infectious | Itot(0)=(I1(0)+I2(0)) | 0 | 10000 |
Transmission rate | β | 0 | 1.12 |
Over-dispersion | η | 1 | 100 |
P of ICU admission given infection | p ICU | 0 | 1 |
Scaling factor for school closure | κ | 0 | 2 |
Parameters assumed known | Value | Â | |
Rate of becoming infectious | σ | 1 |  |
Rate of recovery | γ | 0.5797 |  |
Population of 2012/13 | N 2012/13 | 53,679,750 | Â |
Population of 2013/14 | N 2013/14 | 54,091,200 | Â |
Population of 2014/15 | N 2014/15 | 54,551,450 | Â |