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Table 4 Tobacco-Attributable Deaths by Smoking Status Projected by SimSmoke under Multiple Scenarios for Males and Females, 1993–2067

From: The US SimSmoke tobacco control policy model of smokeless tobacco and cigarette use

Policies Type 1993 2003 2017 2037 2067 Cumulative
1993–2017 1993–2067
Male
Tobacco-Attributable Deaths with Policies
 Actual/ status quo Cigarette 214,536 235,471 238,852 200,634 144,977 5,850,036 15,175,074
Dual 7072 6755 7085 8195 6859 172,098 550,611
SLT 5371 5898 5243 5368 5321 141,452 406,886
Total 226,979 248,123 251,180 214,196 157,158 6,163,585 16,132,572
Lives Saved Compared to the Counterfactual of No Policy Changea
 Actual/ status quo Cigarette 4167 33,407 71,464 128,514 257,655 4,350,888
Dual 126 1011 3141 5747 7520 186,594
SLT 68 381 949 1700 3453 57,979
Total 4362 34,800 75,553 135,961 268,628 4,595,461
 Price alone Cigarette 3058 20,160 45,179 96,264 162,609 2,959,865
Dual 92 600 1962 4278 4644 126,743
SLT 60 282 659 1288 2759 42,282
Total 3210 21,042 47,801 101,831 170,013 3,128,890
 Smoke-free air law alone Cigarette 48 2288 9212 18,973 12,291 549,538
Dual 0 0 0 0 0 0
SLT 1 74 412 843 386 24,265
Total 49 2362 9623 19,816 12,677 573,445
 Media campaign alone Cigarette 42 573 1182 2252 4033 75,506
Dual 1 18 52 98 118 3234
SLT 0 3 10 22 21 667
Total 43 594 1245 2373 4172 79,406
 Cessation treatment alone Cigarette 328 5801 13,195 16,515 38,207 693,120
Dual 9 174 596 773 1098 30,665
SLT 2 50 173 266 308 9589
Total 339 6025 13,963 17,554 39,613 733,373
 Health warning alone Cigarette 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dual 0 0 0 0 0 6
SLT 0 17 73 134 85 4166
Total 0 17 73 134 85 3596
 Advertising ban alone Cigarette 0 319 1069 2123 1205 62,167
Dual 0 11 47 93 42 2703
SLT 0 5 21 47 27 1296
Total 0 335 1137 2263 1274 66,165
 \Youth access alone Cigarette 0 17 1824 10,683 26 189,846
Dual 0 1 63 348 1 6343
SLT 0 0 1 1 0 44
Total 0 18 1887 11,032 27 196,232
Female
Tobacco-Attributable Deaths with Policies
 Actual/ status quo Cigarette 125,607 140,968 146,742 142,518 102,473 3,508,793 9,961,334
Dual 506 443 364 221 103 10,857 20,938
SLT 2078 1863 969 353 173 41,759 60,235
Total 128,191 143,275 148,076 143,093 102,749 3,561,410 10,042,508
Lives Saved Compared to the Counterfactual of No Policy Changea
 Actual/ status quo Cigarette 2617 21,559 48,462 90,074 165,934 2,932,063
Dual 10 48 63 91 436 3845
SLT 27 72 49 46 938 3484
Total 2653 21,679 48,574 90,212 167,308 2,939,392
 Price alone Cigarette 1936 13,098 29,304 67,050 106,278 1,954,695
Dual 7 28 36 68 275 2462
SLT 23 51 32 34 751 2504
Total 1967 13,178 29,372 67,152 107,304 1,959,661
 Smoke-free air law alone Cigarette 28 1393 6274 13,254 7360 369,202
Dual 0 0 0 0 0 0
SLT 0 3 8 13 18 451
Total 29 1396 6282 13,267 7378 369,639
 Media campaign alone Cigarette 24 353 798 1654 2434 51,313
Dual 0 1 1 2 6 65
SLT 0 1 1 1 5 33
Total 24 354 800 1656 2445 51,411
 Cessation treatment alone Cigarette 201 3676 9978 12,899 23,840 513,312
Dual 1 9 14 13 62 717
SLT 1 10 10 8 81 572
Total 202 3695 10,003 12,920 23,983 514,601
 Health warning alone Cigarette 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dual 0 0 0 0 0 0
SLT 0 4 4 4 23 218
Total 0 4 4 4 23 211
 Advertising ban alone Cigarette 0 195 735 1472 724 41,862
Dual 0 0 1 1 2 51
SLT 0 1 1 1 7 64
Total 0 197 738 1475 734 41,977
 Youth access alone Cigarette 0 7 822 6598 11 103,780
Dual 0 0 1 6 0 100
SLT 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 7 823 6604 11 103,880
  1. a Lives saved were calculated as the difference in projected deaths with the policy implemented and with no policy implemented