The US SimSmoke tobacco control policy model of smokeless tobacco and cigarette use

Levy, David T.; Yuan, Zhe; Li, Yameng

doi:10.1186/s12889-018-5597-0

BMC Public Health

Table 4 Tobacco-Attributable Deaths by Smoking Status Projected by SimSmoke under Multiple Scenarios for Males and Females, 1993–2067

From: The US SimSmoke tobacco control policy model of smokeless tobacco and cigarette use

Policies	Type	1993	2003	2017	2037	2067	Cumulative
Policies	Type	1993	2003	2017	2037	2067	1993–2017	1993–2067
Male
Tobacco-Attributable Deaths with Policies
Actual/ status quo	Cigarette	214,536	235,471	238,852	200,634	144,977	5,850,036	15,175,074
	Dual	7072	6755	7085	8195	6859	172,098	550,611
	SLT	5371	5898	5243	5368	5321	141,452	406,886
	Total	226,979	248,123	251,180	214,196	157,158	6,163,585	16,132,572
Lives Saved Compared to the Counterfactual of No Policy Change^a
Actual/ status quo	Cigarette	–	4167	33,407	71,464	128,514	257,655	4,350,888
	Dual	–	126	1011	3141	5747	7520	186,594
	SLT	–	68	381	949	1700	3453	57,979
	Total	–	4362	34,800	75,553	135,961	268,628	4,595,461
Price alone	Cigarette	–	3058	20,160	45,179	96,264	162,609	2,959,865
	Dual	–	92	600	1962	4278	4644	126,743
	SLT	–	60	282	659	1288	2759	42,282
	Total	–	3210	21,042	47,801	101,831	170,013	3,128,890
Smoke-free air law alone	Cigarette	–	48	2288	9212	18,973	12,291	549,538
	Dual	–	0	0	0	0	0	0
	SLT	–	1	74	412	843	386	24,265
	Total	–	49	2362	9623	19,816	12,677	573,445
Media campaign alone	Cigarette	–	42	573	1182	2252	4033	75,506
	Dual	–	1	18	52	98	118	3234
	SLT	–	0	3	10	22	21	667
	Total	–	43	594	1245	2373	4172	79,406
Cessation treatment alone	Cigarette	–	328	5801	13,195	16,515	38,207	693,120
	Dual	–	9	174	596	773	1098	30,665
	SLT	–	2	50	173	266	308	9589
	Total	–	339	6025	13,963	17,554	39,613	733,373
Health warning alone	Cigarette	–	0	0	0	0	0	0
	Dual	–	0	0	0	0	0	6
	SLT	–	0	17	73	134	85	4166
	Total	–	0	17	73	134	85	3596
Advertising ban alone	Cigarette	–	0	319	1069	2123	1205	62,167
	Dual	–	0	11	47	93	42	2703
	SLT	–	0	5	21	47	27	1296
	Total	–	0	335	1137	2263	1274	66,165
\Youth access alone	Cigarette	–	0	17	1824	10,683	26	189,846
	Dual	–	0	1	63	348	1	6343
	SLT	–	0	0	1	1	0	44
	Total	–	0	18	1887	11,032	27	196,232
Female
Tobacco-Attributable Deaths with Policies
Actual/ status quo	Cigarette	125,607	140,968	146,742	142,518	102,473	3,508,793	9,961,334
	Dual	506	443	364	221	103	10,857	20,938
	SLT	2078	1863	969	353	173	41,759	60,235
	Total	128,191	143,275	148,076	143,093	102,749	3,561,410	10,042,508
Lives Saved Compared to the Counterfactual of No Policy Change^a
Actual/ status quo	Cigarette	–	2617	21,559	48,462	90,074	165,934	2,932,063
	Dual	–	10	48	63	91	436	3845
	SLT	–	27	72	49	46	938	3484
	Total	–	2653	21,679	48,574	90,212	167,308	2,939,392
Price alone	Cigarette	–	1936	13,098	29,304	67,050	106,278	1,954,695
	Dual	–	7	28	36	68	275	2462
	SLT	–	23	51	32	34	751	2504
	Total	–	1967	13,178	29,372	67,152	107,304	1,959,661
Smoke-free air law alone	Cigarette	–	28	1393	6274	13,254	7360	369,202
	Dual	–	0	0	0	0	0	0
	SLT	–	0	3	8	13	18	451
	Total	–	29	1396	6282	13,267	7378	369,639
Media campaign alone	Cigarette	–	24	353	798	1654	2434	51,313
	Dual	–	0	1	1	2	6	65
	SLT	–	0	1	1	1	5	33
	Total	–	24	354	800	1656	2445	51,411
Cessation treatment alone	Cigarette	–	201	3676	9978	12,899	23,840	513,312
	Dual	–	1	9	14	13	62	717
	SLT	–	1	10	10	8	81	572
	Total	–	202	3695	10,003	12,920	23,983	514,601
Health warning alone	Cigarette	–	0	0	0	0	0	0
	Dual	–	0	0	0	0	0	0
	SLT	–	0	4	4	4	23	218
	Total	–	0	4	4	4	23	211
Advertising ban alone	Cigarette	–	0	195	735	1472	724	41,862
	Dual	–	0	0	1	1	2	51
	SLT	–	0	1	1	1	7	64
	Total	–	0	197	738	1475	734	41,977
Youth access alone	Cigarette	–	0	7	822	6598	11	103,780
	Dual	–	0	0	1	6	0	100
	SLT	–	0	0	0	0	0	0
	Total	–	0	7	823	6604	11	103,880

^a Lives saved were calculated as the difference in projected deaths with the policy implemented and with no policy implemented

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ISSN: 1471-2458

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