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Table 3 Prevalence by Smoking Status (Exclusive Cigarette, Dual and Smokeless Tobacco Use) Projected by SimSmoke under Multiple Scenarios for Males and Females, 1993–2067

From: The US SimSmoke tobacco control policy model of smokeless tobacco and cigarette use

Prevalence Type 1993 2003 2017 2037 2067 Relative Differencea
2017 2067
Male
 No policy change Cigarette 25.6% 22.9% 20.9% 19.1% 18.6%
Dual 1.05% 1.02% 1.02% 0.96% 0.93%
SLT 3.19% 3.00% 2.86% 2.68% 2.60%
 Actual/ status quo Cigarette 25.6% 19.6% 13.6% 10.5% 9.6% −34.8% −48.3%
Dual 1.05% 0.88% 0.68% 0.57% 0.52% −32.5% −43.6%
SLT 3.19% 2.71% 2.38% 2.14% 2.03% −16.5% −21.9%
 Price alone Cigarette 25.6% 20.3% 15.8% 12.7% 11.7% −24.5% −37.1%
Dual 1.05% 0.91% 0.78% 0.67% 0.62% −23.1% −33.3%
SLT 3.19% 2.74% 2.49% 2.26% 2.15% −12.8% −17.4%
 Smoke-free air law alone Cigarette 25.6% 22.8% 20.0% 17.9% 17.3% −4.0% −7.1%
Dual 1.05% 1.02% 0.98% 0.90% 0.87% −3.9% −6.4%
SLT 3.19% 3.00% 2.86% 2.70% 2.62% 0.3% 0.8%
 Media campaigns alone Cigarette 25.6% 22.8% 20.8% 18.9% 18.4% −0.6% − 0.8%
Dual 1.05% 1.02% 1.01% 0.95% 0.92% −0.5% − 0.7%
SLT 3.19% 2.99% 2.85% 2.68% 2.59% −0.2% − 0.3%
 Cessation treatment alone Cigarette 25.6% 22.6% 20.2% 18.3% 17.8% −3.4% −4.2%
Dual 1.05% 1.01% 0.98% 0.92% 0.89% −3.0% −3.8%
SLT 3.19% 2.98% 2.81% 2.62% 2.54% −1.6% −2.3%
 Health warning alone Cigarette 25.6% 22.9% 20.9% 19.1% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Dual 1.05% 1.02% 1.02% 0.96% 0.93% 0.0% 0.0%
SLT 3.19% 3.00% 2.82% 2.64% 2.55% −1.1% −1.7%
 Advertising ban alone Cigarette 25.6% 22.9% 20.8% 18.9% 18.4% −0.5% −0.9%
Dual 1.05% 1.02% 1.01% 0.95% 0.92% −0.5% −0.8%
SLT 3.19% 3.00% 2.84% 2.67% 2.58% −0.4% −0.8%
 Youth access alone Cigarette 25.6% 22.8% 20.5% 18.3% 17.7% −2.0% −4.9%
Dual 1.05% 1.02% 1.00% 0.93% 0.90% −1.2% −3.0%
SLT 3.19% 3.00% 2.86% 2.69% 2.60% 0.0% 0.0%
Female
 No policy change Cigarette 22.1% 19.7% 18.4% 17.1% 16.8%
Dual 0.05% 0.03% 0.03% 0.02% 0.02%
SLT 0.38% 0.22% 0.12% 0.08% 0.07%
 Actual/ status quo Cigarette 22.1% 16.9% 11.9% 9.3% 8.4% −35.2% −49.9%
Dual 0.05% 0.03% 0.02% 0.01% 0.01% −32.5% −47.0%
SLT 0.38% 0.20% 0.10% 0.07% 0.06% −16.4% −20.7%
 Price alone Cigarette 22.1% 17.5% 13.9% 11.3% 10.4% −24.6% −38.0%
Dual 0.05% 0.03% 0.02% 0.01% 0.01% −21.8% − 35.9%
SLT 0.38% 0.21% 0.11% 0.07% 0.06% −11.7% −15.8%
 Smoke-free air law alone Cigarette 22.1% 19.6% 17.7% 16.0% 15.6% −4.1% −7.4%
Dual 0.05% 0.03% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% −3.9% −6.8%
SLT 0.38% 0.22% 0.12% 0.08% 0.07% 0.2% 1.1%
 Media campaign alone Cigarette 22.1% 19.6% 18.3% 17.0% 16.7% −0.6% −0.8%
Dual 0.05% 0.03% 0.03% 0.02% 0.02% −0.5% −0.7%
SLT 0.38% 0.22% 0.12% 0.08% 0.07% −0.2% −0.3%
 Cessation treatment alone Cigarette 22.1% 19.5% 17.7% 16.3% 16.0% −3.8% −5.2%
Dual 0.05% 0.03% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% −4.3% −4.6%
SLT 0.38% 0.22% 0.12% 0.08% 0.07% −2.5% −2.8%
 Health warning alone Cigarette 22.1% 19.7% 18.4% 17.1% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Dual 0.05% 0.03% 0.03% 0.02% 0.02% 0.0% 0.0%
SLT 0.38% 0.22% 0.12% 0.08% 0.07% −1.2% −1.9%
 Advertising ban alone Cigarette 22.1% 19.7% 18.3% 17.0% 16.7% −0.5% −0.9%
Dual 0.05% 0.03% 0.03% 0.02% 0.02% −0.5% −0.8%
SLT 0.38% 0.22% 0.12% 0.08% 0.07% −0.4% −0.8%
 Youth access alone Cigarette 22.1% 19.7% 18.1% 16.5% 16.0% −1.9% −4.7%
Dual 0.05% 0.03% 0.03% 0.02% 0.02% −1.1% −3.8%
SLT 0.38% 0.22% 0.12% 0.08% 0.07% 0.0% 0.3%
  1. aRelative differences measured as the absolute difference between current prevalence and no-policy-change scenario prevalence from the same year divided by the no-policy-change prevalence for the same year