Table 3 Prevalence by Smoking Status (Exclusive Cigarette, Dual and Smokeless Tobacco Use) Projected by SimSmoke under Multiple Scenarios for Males and Females, 1993–2067
From: The US SimSmoke tobacco control policy model of smokeless tobacco and cigarette use
Prevalence | Type | 1993 | 2003 | 2017 | 2037 | 2067 | Relative Differencea | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 2067 | |||||||
Male | ||||||||
 No policy change | Cigarette | 25.6% | 22.9% | 20.9% | 19.1% | 18.6% | – | – |
Dual | 1.05% | 1.02% | 1.02% | 0.96% | 0.93% | – | – | |
SLT | 3.19% | 3.00% | 2.86% | 2.68% | 2.60% | – | – | |
 Actual/ status quo | Cigarette | 25.6% | 19.6% | 13.6% | 10.5% | 9.6% | −34.8% | −48.3% |
Dual | 1.05% | 0.88% | 0.68% | 0.57% | 0.52% | −32.5% | −43.6% | |
SLT | 3.19% | 2.71% | 2.38% | 2.14% | 2.03% | −16.5% | −21.9% | |
 Price alone | Cigarette | 25.6% | 20.3% | 15.8% | 12.7% | 11.7% | −24.5% | −37.1% |
Dual | 1.05% | 0.91% | 0.78% | 0.67% | 0.62% | −23.1% | −33.3% | |
SLT | 3.19% | 2.74% | 2.49% | 2.26% | 2.15% | −12.8% | −17.4% | |
 Smoke-free air law alone | Cigarette | 25.6% | 22.8% | 20.0% | 17.9% | 17.3% | −4.0% | −7.1% |
Dual | 1.05% | 1.02% | 0.98% | 0.90% | 0.87% | −3.9% | −6.4% | |
SLT | 3.19% | 3.00% | 2.86% | 2.70% | 2.62% | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
 Media campaigns alone | Cigarette | 25.6% | 22.8% | 20.8% | 18.9% | 18.4% | −0.6% | − 0.8% |
Dual | 1.05% | 1.02% | 1.01% | 0.95% | 0.92% | −0.5% | − 0.7% | |
SLT | 3.19% | 2.99% | 2.85% | 2.68% | 2.59% | −0.2% | − 0.3% | |
 Cessation treatment alone | Cigarette | 25.6% | 22.6% | 20.2% | 18.3% | 17.8% | −3.4% | −4.2% |
Dual | 1.05% | 1.01% | 0.98% | 0.92% | 0.89% | −3.0% | −3.8% | |
SLT | 3.19% | 2.98% | 2.81% | 2.62% | 2.54% | −1.6% | −2.3% | |
 Health warning alone | Cigarette | 25.6% | 22.9% | 20.9% | 19.1% | 18.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Dual | 1.05% | 1.02% | 1.02% | 0.96% | 0.93% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
SLT | 3.19% | 3.00% | 2.82% | 2.64% | 2.55% | −1.1% | −1.7% | |
 Advertising ban alone | Cigarette | 25.6% | 22.9% | 20.8% | 18.9% | 18.4% | −0.5% | −0.9% |
Dual | 1.05% | 1.02% | 1.01% | 0.95% | 0.92% | −0.5% | −0.8% | |
SLT | 3.19% | 3.00% | 2.84% | 2.67% | 2.58% | −0.4% | −0.8% | |
 Youth access alone | Cigarette | 25.6% | 22.8% | 20.5% | 18.3% | 17.7% | −2.0% | −4.9% |
Dual | 1.05% | 1.02% | 1.00% | 0.93% | 0.90% | −1.2% | −3.0% | |
SLT | 3.19% | 3.00% | 2.86% | 2.69% | 2.60% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Female | ||||||||
 No policy change | Cigarette | 22.1% | 19.7% | 18.4% | 17.1% | 16.8% | – | – |
Dual | 0.05% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.02% | – | – | |
SLT | 0.38% | 0.22% | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.07% | – | – | |
 Actual/ status quo | Cigarette | 22.1% | 16.9% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 8.4% | −35.2% | −49.9% |
Dual | 0.05% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.01% | −32.5% | −47.0% | |
SLT | 0.38% | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.07% | 0.06% | −16.4% | −20.7% | |
 Price alone | Cigarette | 22.1% | 17.5% | 13.9% | 11.3% | 10.4% | −24.6% | −38.0% |
Dual | 0.05% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.01% | −21.8% | − 35.9% | |
SLT | 0.38% | 0.21% | 0.11% | 0.07% | 0.06% | −11.7% | −15.8% | |
 Smoke-free air law alone | Cigarette | 22.1% | 19.6% | 17.7% | 16.0% | 15.6% | −4.1% | −7.4% |
Dual | 0.05% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.02% | −3.9% | −6.8% | |
SLT | 0.38% | 0.22% | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.07% | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
 Media campaign alone | Cigarette | 22.1% | 19.6% | 18.3% | 17.0% | 16.7% | −0.6% | −0.8% |
Dual | 0.05% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.02% | −0.5% | −0.7% | |
SLT | 0.38% | 0.22% | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.07% | −0.2% | −0.3% | |
 Cessation treatment alone | Cigarette | 22.1% | 19.5% | 17.7% | 16.3% | 16.0% | −3.8% | −5.2% |
Dual | 0.05% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.02% | −4.3% | −4.6% | |
SLT | 0.38% | 0.22% | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.07% | −2.5% | −2.8% | |
 Health warning alone | Cigarette | 22.1% | 19.7% | 18.4% | 17.1% | 16.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Dual | 0.05% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
SLT | 0.38% | 0.22% | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.07% | −1.2% | −1.9% | |
 Advertising ban alone | Cigarette | 22.1% | 19.7% | 18.3% | 17.0% | 16.7% | −0.5% | −0.9% |
Dual | 0.05% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.02% | −0.5% | −0.8% | |
SLT | 0.38% | 0.22% | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.07% | −0.4% | −0.8% | |
 Youth access alone | Cigarette | 22.1% | 19.7% | 18.1% | 16.5% | 16.0% | −1.9% | −4.7% |
Dual | 0.05% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.02% | −1.1% | −3.8% | |
SLT | 0.38% | 0.22% | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.07% | 0.0% | 0.3% | |