Skip to main content

Table 2 Validation: Exclusive Cigarette, Dual and Exclusive SLT Use, SimSmoke Projections vs.Tobacco Use Supplement, by Age and Gender, 1993–2015

From: The US SimSmoke tobacco control policy model of smokeless tobacco and cigarette use

EXCLUSIVE CIGARETTE USE
Ages Source 1993 2002 Relative changea1993–2002 2011 Relative changea2002–2011 2015 Relative changea2011–2015 Relative changea1993–2015
Male
 18+ SimSmoke 25.6% 20.2% −21.3% 15.4% −23.5% 14.2% −8.2% −44.7%
CPS-TUS 25.7% 22.0% −14.1% 17.1% −22.5% 14.9% −12.6% −41.8%
95% CI   (21.7, 22.4%)   (16.8, 17.4%)   (14.7, 15.2%)   
 18–24 SimSmoke 25.1% 20.4% −18.7% 17.0% −16.4% 16.9% −1.0% −32.8%
CPS-TUS 25.5% 26.8% 5.4% 18.7% −30.2% 15.6% −16.7% −38.7%
95% CI   (25.7, 28.0%)   (17.8, 19.7%)   (14.6, 16.6%)   
 25–34 SimSmoke 29.0% 23.9% −17.6% 20.2% −15.4% 19.3% −4.4% −33.3%
CPS-TUS 29.0% 24.2% −16.6% 21.2% −12.5% 18.0% −15.2% −38.1%
95% CI   (23.4, 25.0%)   (20.5, 21.9%)   (17.3, 18.7%)   
 35–54 SimSmoke 29.5% 22.0% −25.2% 15.7% −28.8% 14.1% −10.1% −52.1%
CPS-TUS 29.6% 25.5% −13.8% 19.2% −24.9% 16.7% −12.9% −43.6%
95% CI   (24.9, 26.1%)   (18.7, 19.6%)   (16.2, 17.2%)   
 55+ SimSmoke 17.4% 14.9% −14.4% 11.7% −21.0% 10.4% −11.5% −40.1%
CPS-TUS 17.5% 14.5% −17.0% 12.7% −12.4% 12.2% −4.2% −30.3%
95% CI   (14.0, 15.0%)   (12.3, 13.1%)   (11.8, 12.6%)   
Female
 18+ SimSmoke 22.1% 17.3% −21.4% 13.4% −22.5% 12.4% −7.7% − 43.8%
CPS-TUS 22.3% 18.1% −18.6% 14.3% −21.1% 12.8% −10.9% −42.7%
95% CI   (17.9, 18.4%)   (14.1, 14.5%)   (12.5, 13.0%)   
 18–24 SimSmoke 23.6% 19.5% −17.5% 16.3% −16.3% 16.1% −1.1% −31.7%
CPS-TUS 23.8% 23.3% −2.2% 15.5% −33.5% 12.1% −22.0% −49.2%
95% CI   (22.3, 24.3%)   (14.7, 16.4%)   (11.3, 13.0%)   
 25–34 SimSmoke 27.3% 20.9% −23.5% 17.6% −15.8% 16.8% −4.6% −38.6%
CPS-TUS 27.6% 20.1% −27.1% 17.2% −14.7% 15.0% −12.9% −45.9%
95% CI   (19.5, 20.8%)   (16.6, 17.8%)   (14.4, 15.6%)   
 35–54 SimSmoke 25.1% 19.5% −22.2% 14.2% − 27.1% 12.7% −10.7% −49.4%
CPS-TUS 25.1% 21.8% −13.1% 17.2% −20.9% 15.6% −9.6% −37.9%
95% CI   (21.3, 22.2%)   (16.8, 17.6%)   (15.2, 16.0%)   
 55+ SimSmoke 14.4% 12.1% −15.6% 9.8% −18.9% 9.1% −7.8% − 36.9%
CPS-TUS 14.8% 11.4% −22.5% 10.1% −12.2% 9.8% −2.2% −33.4%
95% CI   (11.0, 11.8%)   (9.7, 10.4%)   (9.5, 10.1%)   
Dual use
Male
 18+ SimSmoke 1.0% 0.9% −14.6% 0.7% −16.4% 0.7% −5.7% −32.6%
CPS-TUS 1.0% 0.5% −47.0% 0.5% −11.4% 0.5% 0.0% −53.0%
95% CI   (0.5, 0.6%)   (0.4, 0.5%)   (0.4, 0.5%)   
 18–24 SimSmoke 2.2% 1.5% −33.5% 1.3% −8.8% 1.3% −0.3% −39.5%
CPS-TUS 2.3% 1.1% −52.0% 1.1% 0.5% 1.1% 0.0% −51.7%
95% CI   (0.8, 1.4%)   (0.9, 1.4%)   (0.8, 1.4%)   
 25–34 SimSmoke 1.4% 1.4% 0.7% 1.0% −31.9% 0.9% −1.7% −32.6%
CPS-TUS 1.4% 1.0% −31.0% 0.8% −17.8% 0.9% 7.6% −39.0%
95% CI   (0.8, 1.1%)   (0.7, 1.0%)   (0.7, 1.0%)   
 35–54 SimSmoke 0.8% 0.8% 5.8% 0.8% −1.9% 0.7% −8.8% −5.4%
CPS-TUS 0.8% 0.5% −40.5% 0.5% 6.7% 0.5% 10.4% −30.0%
95% CI   (0.4, 0.5%)   (0.4, 0.6%)   (0.4, 0.6%)   
 55+ SimSmoke 0.5% 0.4% −23.9% 0.3% −14.8% 0.3% −0.2% −35.3%
CPS-TUS 0.5% 0.2% −64.3% 0.2% −11.1% 0.1% −6.7% −70.4%
95% CI   (0.1, 0.2%)   (0.1, 0.2%)   (0.1, 0.2%)   
Female
 18+ SimSmoke 0.05% 0.03% −33.3% 0.02% −32.4% 0.02% −13.2% −60.9%
CPS-TUS 0.05% 0.02% −62.5% 0.01% −44.3% 0.02% 100.0% −58.2%
95% CI   (0.01, 0.03%)   (0.01, 0.02%)   (0.01, 0.03%)   
 18–24 SimSmoke 0.05% 0.03% −32.2% 0.03% −9.1% 0.03% −0.48% −38.7%
CPS-TUS 0.05% 0.01% −77.1% 0.08% 555.7% 0.02% −75.0% −62.5%
95% CI   (0.00, 0.03%)   (0.04, 0.18%)   (0.00, 0.10%)   
 25–34 SimSmoke 0.03% 0.03% −2.6% 0.02% −33.4% 0.02% −2.8% − 36.9%
CPS-TUS 0.02% 0.02% −6.3% 0.02% −9.9% 0.01% −50.0% −57.8%
95% CI   (0.00, 0.04%)   (0.01, 0.06%)   (0.00, 0.05%)   
 35–54 SimSmoke 0.06% 0.03% −49.1% 0.02% −42.7% 0.01% −18.6% −76.3%
CPS-TUS 0.06% 0.02% −69.0% 0.01% −43.2% 0.03% 200.0% −47.2%
95% CI   (0.00, 0.03%)   (0.00, 0.03%)   (0.01, 0.05%)   
 55+ SimSmoke 0.05% 0.04% −26.3% 0.02% −34.0% 0.02% −19.5% −60.8%
CPS-TUS 0.05% 0.02% −66.6% 0.00% −100.0% 0.01% −81.0%
95% CI   (0.00, 0.03%)   (0.00, 0.02%)   (0.00, 0.03%)   
Exclusive smokeless tobacco use
Male
 18+ SimSmoke 3.2% 2.8% −13.6% 2.5% −9.3% 2.4% −3.3% −24.2%
CPS-TUS 3.1% 2.3% −27.1% 2.5% 8.0% 2.6% 6.5% −16.1%
95% CI   (2.1, 2.4%)   (2.3, 2.6%)   (2.5, 2.7%)   
 18–24 SimSmoke 4.9% 3.6% −26.9% 3.8% 5.9% 3.8% 0.5% −22.2%
CPS-TUS 5.0% 1.8% −63.5% 2.3% 28.2% 2.9% 24.0% −42.0%
95% CI   (1.5, 2.2%)   (2.0, 2.8%)   (2.5, 3.4%)   
 25–34 SimSmoke 4.1% 3.9% −4.5% 3.2% −16.9% 3.3% 3.2% −18.1%
CPS-TUS 4.2% 3.6% −14.2% 3.0% −17.4% 3.0% 3.1% −27.0%
95% CI   (3.2, 3.9%)   (2.7, 3.3%)   (2.8, 3.4%)   
 35–54 SimSmoke 2.3% 2.5% 4.8% 2.6% 4.2% 2.4% −5.0% 3.7%
CPS-TUS 2.3% 2.2% −4.1% 3.1% 42.1% 3.4% 9.4% 49.0%
95% CI   (2.0, 2.4%)   (2.9, 3.3%)   (3.2, 3.6%)   
 55+ SimSmoke 2.7% 2.0% −25.6% 1.4% −27.2% 1.4% −6.0% −49.0%
CPS-TUS 2.7% 1.8% −36.0% 1.6% −9.9% 1.7% 9.5% −36.8%
95% CI   (1.6, 1.9%)   (1.4, 1.7%)   (1.6, 1.9%)   
Female
 18+ SimSmoke 0.4% 0.2% −42.7% 0.1% −39.3% 0.1% −16.4% −70.9%
CPS-TUS 0.4% 0.2% −60.4% 0.1% −42.4% 0.1% 0.0% −77.2%
95% CI   (0.1, 0.2%)   (0.1, 0.1%)   (0.1, 0.1%)   
 18–24 SimSmoke 0.1% 0.1% −24.5% 0.1% 5.5% 0.1% 0.6% −19.8%
CPS-TUS 0.1% 0.0% −62.4% 0.1% 86.9% 0.1% −12.5% −38.5%
95% CI   (0.0, 0.1%)   (0.0, 0.2%)   (0.0, 0.2%)   
 25–34 SimSmoke 0.1% 0.1% −24.1% 0.1% −10.4% 0.1% 2.9% −30.0%
CPS-TUS 0.1% 0.1% −20.0% 0.1% −48.8% 0.1% 66.7% −31.7%
95% CI   (0.1, 0.2%)   (0.0, 0.1%)   (0.1, 0.2%)   
 35–54 SimSmoke 0.2% 0.1% −44.9% 0.1% −23.1% 0.1% −9.7% −61.8%
CPS-TUS 0.2% 0.1% −54.0% 0.1% −8.0% 0.1% 0.0% −57.7%
95% CI   (0.1, 0.1%)   (0.1, 0.1%)   (0.1, 0.1%)   
 55+ SimSmoke 0.9% 0.4% −47.4% 0.2% −54.1% 0.1% −28.0% −82.6%
CPS-TUS 0.9% 0.3% −67.9% 0.1% −58.4% 0.1% −16.7% −88.8%
95% CI   (0.2, 0.4%)   (0.1, 0.2%)   (0.1, 0.1%)   
  1. aRelative change measured as the absolute difference in prevalence between the end and the initial year of the specified period divided by the prevalence of the initial year