Table 2 Validation: Exclusive Cigarette, Dual and Exclusive SLT Use, SimSmoke Projections vs.Tobacco Use Supplement, by Age and Gender, 1993–2015
From: The US SimSmoke tobacco control policy model of smokeless tobacco and cigarette use
EXCLUSIVE CIGARETTE USE | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ages | Source | 1993 | 2002 | Relative changea1993–2002 | 2011 | Relative changea2002–2011 | 2015 | Relative changea2011–2015 | Relative changea1993–2015 |
Male | |||||||||
 18+ | SimSmoke | 25.6% | 20.2% | −21.3% | 15.4% | −23.5% | 14.2% | −8.2% | −44.7% |
CPS-TUS | 25.7% | 22.0% | −14.1% | 17.1% | −22.5% | 14.9% | −12.6% | −41.8% | |
95% CI | Â | (21.7, 22.4%) | Â | (16.8, 17.4%) | Â | (14.7, 15.2%) | Â | Â | |
 18–24 | SimSmoke | 25.1% | 20.4% | −18.7% | 17.0% | −16.4% | 16.9% | −1.0% | −32.8% |
CPS-TUS | 25.5% | 26.8% | 5.4% | 18.7% | −30.2% | 15.6% | −16.7% | −38.7% | |
95% CI | Â | (25.7, 28.0%) | Â | (17.8, 19.7%) | Â | (14.6, 16.6%) | Â | Â | |
 25–34 | SimSmoke | 29.0% | 23.9% | −17.6% | 20.2% | −15.4% | 19.3% | −4.4% | −33.3% |
CPS-TUS | 29.0% | 24.2% | −16.6% | 21.2% | −12.5% | 18.0% | −15.2% | −38.1% | |
95% CI | Â | (23.4, 25.0%) | Â | (20.5, 21.9%) | Â | (17.3, 18.7%) | Â | Â | |
 35–54 | SimSmoke | 29.5% | 22.0% | −25.2% | 15.7% | −28.8% | 14.1% | −10.1% | −52.1% |
CPS-TUS | 29.6% | 25.5% | −13.8% | 19.2% | −24.9% | 16.7% | −12.9% | −43.6% | |
95% CI | Â | (24.9, 26.1%) | Â | (18.7, 19.6%) | Â | (16.2, 17.2%) | Â | Â | |
 55+ | SimSmoke | 17.4% | 14.9% | −14.4% | 11.7% | −21.0% | 10.4% | −11.5% | −40.1% |
CPS-TUS | 17.5% | 14.5% | −17.0% | 12.7% | −12.4% | 12.2% | −4.2% | −30.3% | |
95% CI | Â | (14.0, 15.0%) | Â | (12.3, 13.1%) | Â | (11.8, 12.6%) | Â | Â | |
Female | |||||||||
 18+ | SimSmoke | 22.1% | 17.3% | −21.4% | 13.4% | −22.5% | 12.4% | −7.7% | − 43.8% |
CPS-TUS | 22.3% | 18.1% | −18.6% | 14.3% | −21.1% | 12.8% | −10.9% | −42.7% | |
95% CI | Â | (17.9, 18.4%) | Â | (14.1, 14.5%) | Â | (12.5, 13.0%) | Â | Â | |
 18–24 | SimSmoke | 23.6% | 19.5% | −17.5% | 16.3% | −16.3% | 16.1% | −1.1% | −31.7% |
CPS-TUS | 23.8% | 23.3% | −2.2% | 15.5% | −33.5% | 12.1% | −22.0% | −49.2% | |
95% CI | Â | (22.3, 24.3%) | Â | (14.7, 16.4%) | Â | (11.3, 13.0%) | Â | Â | |
 25–34 | SimSmoke | 27.3% | 20.9% | −23.5% | 17.6% | −15.8% | 16.8% | −4.6% | −38.6% |
CPS-TUS | 27.6% | 20.1% | −27.1% | 17.2% | −14.7% | 15.0% | −12.9% | −45.9% | |
95% CI | Â | (19.5, 20.8%) | Â | (16.6, 17.8%) | Â | (14.4, 15.6%) | Â | Â | |
 35–54 | SimSmoke | 25.1% | 19.5% | −22.2% | 14.2% | − 27.1% | 12.7% | −10.7% | −49.4% |
CPS-TUS | 25.1% | 21.8% | −13.1% | 17.2% | −20.9% | 15.6% | −9.6% | −37.9% | |
95% CI | Â | (21.3, 22.2%) | Â | (16.8, 17.6%) | Â | (15.2, 16.0%) | Â | Â | |
 55+ | SimSmoke | 14.4% | 12.1% | −15.6% | 9.8% | −18.9% | 9.1% | −7.8% | − 36.9% |
CPS-TUS | 14.8% | 11.4% | −22.5% | 10.1% | −12.2% | 9.8% | −2.2% | −33.4% | |
95% CI | Â | (11.0, 11.8%) | Â | (9.7, 10.4%) | Â | (9.5, 10.1%) | Â | Â | |
Dual use | |||||||||
Male | |||||||||
 18+ | SimSmoke | 1.0% | 0.9% | −14.6% | 0.7% | −16.4% | 0.7% | −5.7% | −32.6% |
CPS-TUS | 1.0% | 0.5% | −47.0% | 0.5% | −11.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | −53.0% | |
95% CI | Â | (0.5, 0.6%) | Â | (0.4, 0.5%) | Â | (0.4, 0.5%) | Â | Â | |
 18–24 | SimSmoke | 2.2% | 1.5% | −33.5% | 1.3% | −8.8% | 1.3% | −0.3% | −39.5% |
CPS-TUS | 2.3% | 1.1% | −52.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% | −51.7% | |
95% CI | Â | (0.8, 1.4%) | Â | (0.9, 1.4%) | Â | (0.8, 1.4%) | Â | Â | |
 25–34 | SimSmoke | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | −31.9% | 0.9% | −1.7% | −32.6% |
CPS-TUS | 1.4% | 1.0% | −31.0% | 0.8% | −17.8% | 0.9% | 7.6% | −39.0% | |
95% CI | Â | (0.8, 1.1%) | Â | (0.7, 1.0%) | Â | (0.7, 1.0%) | Â | Â | |
 35–54 | SimSmoke | 0.8% | 0.8% | 5.8% | 0.8% | −1.9% | 0.7% | −8.8% | −5.4% |
CPS-TUS | 0.8% | 0.5% | −40.5% | 0.5% | 6.7% | 0.5% | 10.4% | −30.0% | |
95% CI | Â | (0.4, 0.5%) | Â | (0.4, 0.6%) | Â | (0.4, 0.6%) | Â | Â | |
 55+ | SimSmoke | 0.5% | 0.4% | −23.9% | 0.3% | −14.8% | 0.3% | −0.2% | −35.3% |
CPS-TUS | 0.5% | 0.2% | −64.3% | 0.2% | −11.1% | 0.1% | −6.7% | −70.4% | |
95% CI | Â | (0.1, 0.2%) | Â | (0.1, 0.2%) | Â | (0.1, 0.2%) | Â | Â | |
Female | |||||||||
 18+ | SimSmoke | 0.05% | 0.03% | −33.3% | 0.02% | −32.4% | 0.02% | −13.2% | −60.9% |
CPS-TUS | 0.05% | 0.02% | −62.5% | 0.01% | −44.3% | 0.02% | 100.0% | −58.2% | |
95% CI | Â | (0.01, 0.03%) | Â | (0.01, 0.02%) | Â | (0.01, 0.03%) | Â | Â | |
 18–24 | SimSmoke | 0.05% | 0.03% | −32.2% | 0.03% | −9.1% | 0.03% | −0.48% | −38.7% |
CPS-TUS | 0.05% | 0.01% | −77.1% | 0.08% | 555.7% | 0.02% | −75.0% | −62.5% | |
95% CI | Â | (0.00, 0.03%) | Â | (0.04, 0.18%) | Â | (0.00, 0.10%) | Â | Â | |
 25–34 | SimSmoke | 0.03% | 0.03% | −2.6% | 0.02% | −33.4% | 0.02% | −2.8% | − 36.9% |
CPS-TUS | 0.02% | 0.02% | −6.3% | 0.02% | −9.9% | 0.01% | −50.0% | −57.8% | |
95% CI | Â | (0.00, 0.04%) | Â | (0.01, 0.06%) | Â | (0.00, 0.05%) | Â | Â | |
 35–54 | SimSmoke | 0.06% | 0.03% | −49.1% | 0.02% | −42.7% | 0.01% | −18.6% | −76.3% |
CPS-TUS | 0.06% | 0.02% | −69.0% | 0.01% | −43.2% | 0.03% | 200.0% | −47.2% | |
95% CI | Â | (0.00, 0.03%) | Â | (0.00, 0.03%) | Â | (0.01, 0.05%) | Â | Â | |
 55+ | SimSmoke | 0.05% | 0.04% | −26.3% | 0.02% | −34.0% | 0.02% | −19.5% | −60.8% |
CPS-TUS | 0.05% | 0.02% | −66.6% | 0.00% | −100.0% | 0.01% | … | −81.0% | |
95% CI | Â | (0.00, 0.03%) | Â | (0.00, 0.02%) | Â | (0.00, 0.03%) | Â | Â | |
Exclusive smokeless tobacco use | |||||||||
Male | |||||||||
 18+ | SimSmoke | 3.2% | 2.8% | −13.6% | 2.5% | −9.3% | 2.4% | −3.3% | −24.2% |
CPS-TUS | 3.1% | 2.3% | −27.1% | 2.5% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 6.5% | −16.1% | |
95% CI | Â | (2.1, 2.4%) | Â | (2.3, 2.6%) | Â | (2.5, 2.7%) | Â | Â | |
 18–24 | SimSmoke | 4.9% | 3.6% | −26.9% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 0.5% | −22.2% |
CPS-TUS | 5.0% | 1.8% | −63.5% | 2.3% | 28.2% | 2.9% | 24.0% | −42.0% | |
95% CI | Â | (1.5, 2.2%) | Â | (2.0, 2.8%) | Â | (2.5, 3.4%) | Â | Â | |
 25–34 | SimSmoke | 4.1% | 3.9% | −4.5% | 3.2% | −16.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | −18.1% |
CPS-TUS | 4.2% | 3.6% | −14.2% | 3.0% | −17.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | −27.0% | |
95% CI | Â | (3.2, 3.9%) | Â | (2.7, 3.3%) | Â | (2.8, 3.4%) | Â | Â | |
 35–54 | SimSmoke | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 2.4% | −5.0% | 3.7% |
CPS-TUS | 2.3% | 2.2% | −4.1% | 3.1% | 42.1% | 3.4% | 9.4% | 49.0% | |
95% CI | Â | (2.0, 2.4%) | Â | (2.9, 3.3%) | Â | (3.2, 3.6%) | Â | Â | |
 55+ | SimSmoke | 2.7% | 2.0% | −25.6% | 1.4% | −27.2% | 1.4% | −6.0% | −49.0% |
CPS-TUS | 2.7% | 1.8% | −36.0% | 1.6% | −9.9% | 1.7% | 9.5% | −36.8% | |
95% CI | Â | (1.6, 1.9%) | Â | (1.4, 1.7%) | Â | (1.6, 1.9%) | Â | Â | |
Female | |||||||||
 18+ | SimSmoke | 0.4% | 0.2% | −42.7% | 0.1% | −39.3% | 0.1% | −16.4% | −70.9% |
CPS-TUS | 0.4% | 0.2% | −60.4% | 0.1% | −42.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | −77.2% | |
95% CI | Â | (0.1, 0.2%) | Â | (0.1, 0.1%) | Â | (0.1, 0.1%) | Â | Â | |
 18–24 | SimSmoke | 0.1% | 0.1% | −24.5% | 0.1% | 5.5% | 0.1% | 0.6% | −19.8% |
CPS-TUS | 0.1% | 0.0% | −62.4% | 0.1% | 86.9% | 0.1% | −12.5% | −38.5% | |
95% CI | Â | (0.0, 0.1%) | Â | (0.0, 0.2%) | Â | (0.0, 0.2%) | Â | Â | |
 25–34 | SimSmoke | 0.1% | 0.1% | −24.1% | 0.1% | −10.4% | 0.1% | 2.9% | −30.0% |
CPS-TUS | 0.1% | 0.1% | −20.0% | 0.1% | −48.8% | 0.1% | 66.7% | −31.7% | |
95% CI | Â | (0.1, 0.2%) | Â | (0.0, 0.1%) | Â | (0.1, 0.2%) | Â | Â | |
 35–54 | SimSmoke | 0.2% | 0.1% | −44.9% | 0.1% | −23.1% | 0.1% | −9.7% | −61.8% |
CPS-TUS | 0.2% | 0.1% | −54.0% | 0.1% | −8.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | −57.7% | |
95% CI | Â | (0.1, 0.1%) | Â | (0.1, 0.1%) | Â | (0.1, 0.1%) | Â | Â | |
 55+ | SimSmoke | 0.9% | 0.4% | −47.4% | 0.2% | −54.1% | 0.1% | −28.0% | −82.6% |
CPS-TUS | 0.9% | 0.3% | −67.9% | 0.1% | −58.4% | 0.1% | −16.7% | −88.8% | |
95% CI | Â | (0.2, 0.4%) | Â | (0.1, 0.2%) | Â | (0.1, 0.1%) | Â | Â | |