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Table 1 Policy Inputs for Cigarette and Smokeless Tobacco in SimSmoke Simulation Model

From: The US SimSmoke tobacco control policy model of smokeless tobacco and cigarette use

Policy Description Cigarette Effect Sizea Smokeless Tobacco Effect Sizeb
Tax Policies [56, 67, 98, 99]
 Cigarette price/tax   Elasticitiesc  
  The effect of taxed is directly incorporated through average US price (including generics), with separate prices for cigarette and SLT. The price elasticity is used to convert the % price changes into effect sizes. The dual price is computed as 4/5 of the cigarette price + 1/5 SLT price −0.4 ages 10–17 Same
− 0.3 ages 18–24 Same
− 0.2 ages 25–34 Same
− 0.1 ages 35–64 Double
− 0.2 ages 65 Same
Smoke-Free Air Policies [62]
 Worksite smoking ban Ban in all indoor worksites, with strong public acceptance and enforcement of laws (reduced by 1/3 if allowed in ventilated areas and by 2/3 if allowed in common areas) −6% One-fourth
 Restaurant smoking ban Ban in all indoor restaurants (reduced by half if partial) −2% One-fourth
 Bars smoking ban Ban in all indoor (reduced by half if partial) −1% One-fourth
 Other place bans Ban in 3 out of 4 government buildings, retail stores, public transportation, and elevators −1% One-fourth
 Enforcement Government agency enforces the laws Effects reduced 50% absent enforcement Same
Mass Media Campaigns [65]
 High publicity media campaign Campaign publicized heavily on TV and at least some other media, with a social marketing approach −6.5% Half
 Moderate publicity media campaign Campaign publicized sporadically on TV and at least some other media −3.25% Half
 Low publicity media campaign Campaign publicized only sporadically in newspaper, billboard, or some other media −1.625% Half
Marketing Restrictions [67, 68]
 Comprehensive marketing ban Ban is applied to television, radio, print, billboard, in-store displays, sponsorships and free samples (all indirect marketing) −5% prevalence,-8% initiation,+ 4% cessation Same
 Moderate advertising ban Ban is applied to all media (television, radio, print, billboard) plus one indirect marketing medium −3% prevalence,-4% initiation,+ 2% cessation Same
 Weak advertising ban Ban is applied to some television, radio, print, and billboard −1% prevalence and initiation only Same
 Enforcement Government agency enforces the laws Effects reduced 50% absent enforcement Same
Health Warnings [69]
 Strong Labels are large, bold and graphic, and cover at least 30% of pack −4% prevalence, −2% initiation, + 10% cessation Same
 Moderate Laws cover 1/3 of package, not bold or graphic −2% prevalence & initiation, + 2% cessation Same
 Weak Laws cover less than 1/3 of package, not bold or graphic − 1% prevalence & initiation, + 2% cessation Same
Cessation Treatment Policies [70]
 Availability of pharmacotherapies Legality of nicotine replacement therapy, Wellbutrin and varenecline −1% prevalence, + 6% cessationd Half
 Proactive quitline A proactive quitline with publicity throughout the media campaign with no cost nicotine replacement therapy −1% prevalence, + 8% cessationd Half
 Subsidization pharmacotherapy Payments to cover pharmacotherapy and behavioral cessation treatment −2.25% prevalence, + 12% cessationd Half
 Brief health care provider interventions Advice by health care provider to quit and methods provided −1% prevalence, + 8% cessationd Half
 All of the above Complete availability and reimbursement of pharmaco- and behavioral treatments, quitlines, and brief interventions −5.2% prevalence, + 43% cessationd Half
Youth Access Restrictions [75]
 Strongly enforced Compliance checks are conducted 4 times per year per outlet, penalties are potent and enforced with heavy publicity −16% initiation and prevalence for ages 16–17 and − 24% ages < 16d Half
 Well enforced Compliance checks are conducted regularly, penalties are potent, and publicity and merchant training are included − 8% initiation and prevalence for ages 16–17 and − 12% ages < 16d Half
 Low enforcement Compliance checks are conducted sporadically, penalties are weak −2% initiation and prevalence for ages 16–17 and − 3% ages < 16d Half
 Vending machine restrictions Total ban Enforcement effects increase by 8%d Half
 Self-service restrictions Total ban Enforcement effects increase by 4%d Half
 Publicity Media campaigns directed at youth use Enforcement effects increase by 10%d Half
  1. a Unless otherwise indicated, the effects are in terms of the reduction in prevalence during the first year, the reduction in initiation, and increase in first year quit rates during the years that the policy is in effect
  2. b Effect sizes are relative to cigarette effect sizes and applied to exclusive cigarette use only unless otherwise indicated
  3. c Elasticities translate into effect sizes through percentage change in price
  4. d Effect size differs for exclusive SLT and for dual use