Table 1 Model inputs

Inputs (Odds)

Notable assumptions and explanations

Lower range

Upper range

Source population

References

1.35

Fixed prevalence throughout childhood based on a point prevalence (4th–12th grade) of 57.5% basic academic achievement

0.7

2.0

National 4th grade black public school students

[33]

0.146

Assumed a cumulative incidence of 23.8% by age 10 (5th grade) based on a point prevalence of 23.8% (K-5th grade)

0.09

0.3

NYC public elementary school students

[34]

0.33

Fixed prevalence throughout childhood based on a period prevalence of 25%

0.15

0.4

High risk children followed infancy through grade 3

[5, 28]

0.275

Fixed prevalence throughout childhood based on a period prevalence of 21.6%

0.14

0.4

Kindergarten or first grade students given any early poverty

[29]

2.125

One-time event, estimated from incidence of 68%

1.59

2.66

Low-income New York state high school students

[35]

0.13

Fixed prevalence throughout childhood based on a point prevalence of 11.4%

0.11

0.15

Nationally representative face-to-face survey of adolescents aged 13 to 18 years in the continental United States.

[50]

0.001

Fixed prevalence throughout childhood based on a point prevalence of 1.05 per 1000

0

0.002

Black children aged 0–19 with type 2 diabetes

[37]

0.099

Fixed prevalence throughout childhood based on a point prevalence of 9%

0.074

0.124

Low-income urban Baltimore adolescents

[24]

1.520

1.000

2.430

ParentCorps

[23]

0.229

0.084

0.621

ParentCorps

[23]

3.846

1.36

4.50

ParentCorps

[4]

0.260

0.080

0.865

ParentCorps

[4]

1.000

0.82

1.0

ParentCorps

[4]

0.590

0.41

0.85

ParentCorps

[1, 3, 5]

3.800

2.0

5.5

Urban children from Arizona aged 55–97 months

[1, 3, 5, 20]

1.335

1.0

4.0

Children from Tennessee’s Project STAR evaluating graduation among children in K-3 grade (55.8% free lunch)hn

[22]

0.699

0.584

0.826

US national sample adults over 18 surveying back on their childhood

[19]

0.180

0.1

1.0

Adolescents ages 15–20 with serious emotional disturbance, 38.2% low income, 39.5% urban

[25]

3.800

1.0

5.0

New Zealand urban children

[51]

5.100

1.51

17.0

Children ages 4–19 in rural Canada

[26]

5.700

2.30

15.05

Study among urban New Zealand adolescents with alcohol misuse and juvenile offenses

[51]

2.925

1.300

6.375

Study among New Zealand males with childhood onset versus adolescent onset antisocial behavior

[31]

  Odds of developing obesity per yr. (BMI > 30)

Age 18–39

0.003

Constant incidence rate, based on a point prevalence of 30% for ages 20–39; 39.5% for ages 40–59; and 35.4% for age > 60; assumed to be cumulative incidence for each age range.

0

0.064

The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007–2008, a representative sample of the US population with measured heights and weights on 3281 children and adolescents (2 through 19 years of age) and 719 infants and toddlers (birth to 2 years of age).

[30]

Age 40–59

0.005

0.001

0.01

Age > 60

−0.002

0

0.005

0.007

Constant incidence rate estimated based on lifetime cumulative incidence of 26.6%

0.002

0.013

Survey of psychiatric disorders among persons aged 15 to 54 years in the US noninstitutionalized civilian population

[52]

0.0069

Constant incidence rate assumed based on cumulative incidence of 6.9 per 1000 (age 18–79)

0.006

0.008

CDC data on incidence of diagnosed diabetes among people aged 18–79

[53]

12.7

Fixed prevalence based on a point prevalence of 92.7%; assumed fixed effect throughout adulthood (i.e., if employed stay employed and if unemployed stay unemployed from yr. to yr)

9.52

15.87

National unemployment rate from August 2013

[54]

7.370

6.39

8.50

Random digit phone survey of US adults aged 18 yrs. or older participating in Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System in 2001

[32]

0.002

Constant incidence rate assumed, based on lifetime cumulative incidence of 4.5%

0

0.005

Bureau of Justice data on lifetime likelihood of going to prison

[55]

0.007

Constant incidence rate within age groups estimated based on lifetime prevalence of mood disorder starting at age 18.

0.005

0.009

Survey of US residents aged 18 yrs. and older in National Comorbidity Survey Replication 2001–2003

[56]

  Odds of cardiovascular disease as an adult, per yr

Age 18–44

0.004

Constant incidence rate within each decade based on annual incidence rate

0.002

0.006

NHLBI morbidity & mortality chart book on cardiovascular, lung and blood diseases

[16]

Age 45–54

0.007

0.006

0.008

Age 55–64

0.015

0.010

0.022

Age 65–74

0.028

0.020

0.035

Age 75–84

0.052

0.045

0.060

Age 85–94

0.075

0.07

0.08

2.300

Cardiovascular disease as the major health sequelae impacting life expectancy and quality of life calculated based on annual incidence rate of CVD in diabetes

1.5

3.5

Framingham study on cardiovascular disease and diabetes

[23]

2.300

Assume to be the same as risk of CVD in patients with diabetes

1.5

3.5

Framingham study on cardiovascular disease and diabetes

[23]

4.5

Any psychiatric disorder as the most significant health sequelae of drug abuse impacting life expectancy and quality of life; calculated based on lifetime co-occurrence of any mood disorder (depression, dysthymia mania) given alcohol abuse

3.36

7.38

NIMH interview of comorbid alcohol, other drug and mental health disorders; national survey of drug use and health

[57,58,59]

4.14

1.2

5.5

Prospective study of US criminal offenders substance use drug treatment and crime

[60]

227

Back calculated using the odds of interaction with judiciary within 3 years of release from prison

50

250

Prospective study of US criminal offenders’recidivism

[61]

1.88

1.5

3.0

Bureau of labors statistics report of college enrollment and work activity of 2015 US high school graduates

[62]

0.029

0.005

0.1

Study of employment among adults released from NYC jails

[63]

47.62

35

571

Study of recovery from alcohol dependence among US adults

[64]

331

Back-calculated using Odds of 0.007 of non-persistence of obesity in adults with obesity. Assumed constant incidence rate, based on cumulative incidence risk of 14% over 21 year follow up (from age 17 to 38) and fixed prevalence after age 38.

National longitudinal survey of US youths

[10, 65, 66]

Inputs ($)

Cost Unit

Lower range ($)

Upper range ($)

References

$1000

per person per year

500

1500

[67]

$21,483

per person per year

10,742

32,225

[42]

$9975

per person per year

4988

14,963

[41]

$1575

per person per year

788

2363

[40]

$0

per person per year

0

0

[68]

$732

per person per year

366

1098

[43]

$28,893

per person per year

14,447

43,340

[44]

$33,160

per person per year

16,580

49,740

[45]

$500

per child

N/A

N/A

$100,000

per school

N/A

N/A

Inputs (Utility)

References

0.690

[69]

0.350

[69]

0.670

[70]

0.600

[70]

0.710

[71]

0.500

[71]

0.725

[72]