Skip to main content

Table 4 Relative under-5 malaria mortality levels after simultaneous scale-up of CMU and ITNs

From: Impact of malaria interventions on child mortality in endemic African settings: comparison and alignment between LiST and Spectrum-Malaria model

Scale-up scenario

LiST

Spectrum-Malaria

DRC

Zambia

DRC

Zambia

ITN 77% ownership or 51% usage; Uncomplicated Case Management 10% (i.e. constant coverage scenario of Figs. 1, 2 and 3)

100%

100%

100%

100%

ITN 98% ownership or 70% usage (single intervention)

80%

80%

90%

88%

Uncomplicated Case Management 40% (single intervention)

67%

67%

59%

49%

ITN 98% ownership or 70% usage & Uncomplicated Case Management 40% (two interventions concurrently)

53.8%

53.8%

54.7%

43.8%

Product of Relative mortality levels after ITN scale-up (to 98% ownership or 70% usage) alone, and after scale-up of Uncomplicated Case Management (to 40%) alone

53.9%

53.8%

53.2%

42.8%

  1. The results percentages reflect the mortality level at 2020 in the scale-up scenario, relative to the mortality level at 2020 in the scenario with coverages held constant at 2015 levels. Each coverage scale-up was implemented as an immediate coverage increased from 2015 to 2016, and maintained over 2016–2030. ITN ownership indicates coverage level projected in LiST; ITN usage indicates coverage level projected in Spectrum-Malaria