No screening | One-time screening at age | Interval screening at age 55–59, with interval | Interval screening at age 55–64, with interval | Interval screening at age 55–69, with interval | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
55y | 59y | 64y | 69y | 4y (2 x) | 2y (3 x) | 1y (5 x) | 4y (3 x) | 2y (5 x) | 1y (10 x) | 4y (4 x) | 2y (8 x) | 1y (15 x) | ||
Predictions for men with average PCa risk | ||||||||||||||
Lifetime risk of PCa diagnosis (%) | 9.00 | 10.18 | 11.05 | 12.76 | 15.19 | 11.57 | 11.96 | 12.30 | 13.54 | 14.18 | 15.39 | 16.32 | 19.27 | 20.13 |
Lifetime risk of PCa diagnosis by screening (%) | - | 1.46 | 2.53 | 4.55 | 7.37 | 3.24 | 3.76 | 4.22 | 5.78 | 6.67 | 8.32 | 9.35 | 13.33 | 14.56 |
Lifetime risk of overdiagnosis (%) | - | 1.18 | 2.05 | 3.76 | 6.19 | 2.57 | 2.96 | 3.30 | 4.54 | 5.18 | 6.39 | 7.32 | 10.27 | 11.13 |
Overdiagnosis in screen-detected PCa (%) | - | 80.82 | 81.03 | 82.64 | 83.99 | 79.32 | 78.72 | 78.20 | 78.55 | 77.66 | 76.80 | 78.29 | 77.04 | 76.44 |
Lifetime prob. of curative local treatment (%) | 4.86 | 5.87 | 6.59 | 7.96 | 9.85 | 7.13 | 7.58 | 8.01 | 8.92 | 9.76 | 11.28 | 11.42 | 14.70 | 16.22 |
Lifetime prob. of curative regional treatment (%) | 1.62 | 1.87 | 2.06 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 2.10 | 2.07 | 2.01 | 2.41 | 2.27 | 2.06 | 2.86 | 2.74 | 2.15 |
Lifetime prob. of curative loco/regional treatment (%) | 6.48 | 7.74 | 8.65 | 10.40 | 12.85 | 9.23 | 9.65 | 10.02 | 11.33 | 12.03 | 13.34 | 14.28 | 17.44 | 18.37 |
Lifetime risk of curative overtreatment (%) | - | 1.26 | 2.17 | 3.92 | 6.37 | 2.75 | 3.17 | 3.54 | 4.85 | 5.55 | 6.86 | 7.80 | 10.96 | 11.89 |
Curative overtreatment in screen-detected PCa (%) | - | 86.30 | 85.77 | 86.15 | 86.43 | 84.88 | 84.31 | 83.89 | 83.91 | 83.21 | 82.45 | 83.42 | 82.22 | 81.66 |
Lifetime risk of dying of PCa (%) | 1.72 | 1.69 | 1.67 | 1.64 | 1.63 | 1.64 | 1.62 | 1.60 | 1.58 | 1.54 | 1.47 | 1.51 | 1.39 | 1.30 |
Lifetime gained v. no screening (days) | - | 0.9 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 12.3 |
QALDs gained v. no screening | - | −1.3 | −2.3 | −3.9 | −7.2 | −2.8 | −3.5 | −4.4 | −4.9 | −5.8 | −6.7 | −7.3 | −10.6 | −11.2 |
RP-related deaths per 10,000 men (n) | 0.70 | 0.87 | 0.99 | 1.20 | 1.46 | 1.09 | 1.15 | 1.18 | 1.34 | 1.46 | 1.65 | 1.66 | 2.23 | 2.39 |
RP- and RT-related AEs per man (n) | 0.029 | 0.034 | 0.038 | 0.046 | 0.057 | 0.041 | 0.044 | 0.046 | 0.051 | 0.056 | 0.063 | 0.065 | 0.083 | 0.090 |
PSA screening tests per man (n) | - | 0.93 | 0.89 | 0.84 | 0.75 | 1.81 | 2.69 | 4.45 | 2.63 | 4.34 | 8.51 | 3.37 | 6.50 | 12.02 |
False-positive PSA tests per man (n) | - | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.26 | 0.39 | 0.66 | 0.38 | 0.63 | 1.25 | 0.48 | 0.94 | 1.76 |
PSA tests needed to avoid 1 death (n) | - | 2994 | 1721 | 1135 | 848 | 2369 | 2774 | 3893 | 1964 | 2460 | 3382 | 1660 | 1964 | 2854 |
Men needed to be screened to avoid one death (n) | - | 2994 | 1721 | 1135 | 848 | 1214 | 954 | 809 | 692 | 525 | 368 | 455 | 280 | 220 |
Predictions for men with elevated familial PCa risk | ||||||||||||||
Lifetime risk of PCa diagnosis (%) | 18.00 | 19.28 | 20.23 | 22.08 | 24.64 | 20.79 | 21.22 | 21.58 | 22.93 | 23.62 | 24.94 | 25.92 | 29.07 | 30.03 |
Lifetime risk of PCa diagnosis by screening (%) | - | 1.97 | 3.36 | 5.92 | 9.28 | 4.37 | 5.07 | 5.70 | 7.79 | 9.05 | 11.34 | 12.53 | 17.93 | 19.67 |
Lifetime risk of overdiagnosis (%) | - | 1.28 | 2.23 | 4.08 | 6.64 | 2.79 | 3.22 | 3.58 | 4.93 | 5.62 | 6.94 | 7.92 | 11.07 | 12.03 |
Overdiagnosis in screen-detected PCa (%) | - | 64.97 | 66.37 | 68.92 | 71.55 | 63.84 | 63.51 | 62.81 | 63.29 | 62.10 | 61.20 | 63.21 | 61.74 | 61.16 |
Lifetime prob. of curative local treatment (%) | 8.61 | 9.73 | 10.53 | 11.98 | 13.88 | 11.18 | 11.75 | 12.31 | 13.23 | 14.37 | 16.39 | 16.04 | 20.15 | 22.37 |
Lifetime prob. of curative regional treatment (%) | 3.69 | 4.07 | 4.35 | 4.92 | 5.73 | 4.40 | 4.34 | 4.22 | 4.88 | 4.60 | 4.16 | 5.55 | 5.22 | 4.13 |
Lifetime prob. of curative loco/regional treatment (%) | 12.29 | 13.80 | 14.88 | 16.90 | 19.61 | 15.58 | 16.09 | 16.53 | 18.11 | 18.97 | 20.55 | 21.59 | 25.37 | 26.50 |
Lifetime risk of curative overtreatment (%) | - | 1.51 | 2.59 | 4.61 | 7.32 | 3.29 | 3.80 | 4.24 | 5.82 | 6.68 | 8.26 | 9.30 | 13.08 | 14.21 |
Curative overtreatment in screen-detected PCa (%) | - | 76.65 | 77.08 | 77.87 | 78.88 | 75.29 | 74.95 | 74.39 | 74.71 | 73.81 | 72.84 | 74.22 | 72.95 | 72.24 |
Lifetime risk of dying of PCa (%) | 4.35 | 4.26 | 4.21 | 4.15 | 4.12 | 4.14 | 4.09 | 4.03 | 3.99 | 3.87 | 3.66 | 3.80 | 3.46 | 3.21 |
Lifetime gained v. no screening (days) | - | 4.7 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 9.7 | 12.0 | 14.4 | 15.2 | 20.1 | 28.6 | 21.3 | 32.5 | 42.7 |
QALDs gained v. no screening | - | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.3 | −3.9 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 13.0 |
RP-related deaths per 10,000 men (n) | 1.32 | 1.49 | 1.64 | 1.79 | 2.12 | 1.73 | 1.82 | 1.84 | 2.01 | 2.18 | 2.38 | 2.39 | 3.07 | 3.28 |
RP- and RT-related AEs per man (n) | 0.052 | 0.059 | 0.064 | 0.073 | 0.084 | 0.068 | 0.071 | 0.073 | 0.080 | 0.085 | 0.095 | 0.096 | 0.118 | 0.128 |
PSA screening tests per man (n) | - | 0.92 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.73 | 1.79 | 2.67 | 4.40 | 2.60 | 4.28 | 8.34 | 3.32 | 6.34 | 11.66 |
False-positive PSA tests per man (n) | - | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.26 | 0.39 | 0.65 | 0.37 | 0.62 | 1.22 | 0.46 | 0.90 | 1.70 |
PSA tests needed to avoid 1 death (n) | - | 1059 | 630 | 415 | 312 | 859 | 1021 | 1368 | 714 | 888 | 1205 | 605 | 712 | 1023 |
Men needed to be screened to avoid one death (n) | - | 1059 | 630 | 415 | 312 | 442 | 353 | 287 | 254 | 192 | 133 | 168 | 104 | 81 |