Table 1 List of interventions and coverage levels included in the optimisation routine
Intervention | Description | Coverage level | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
−2 | −1 | BL | +1 | +2 | +3 | FM (2018/19) | |||
Antiretroviral therapy (ART) under current guidelines | Increase ART coverage while maintaining current eligibility criteria (CD4 < 500 and PMTCT B+ (triple ART initiation for life in all pregnant women)) | ✓ | ✓ | - | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 95% |
Universal treatment | Changing guidelines to allow for universal treatment (regardless of CD4 count) in addition to increasing ART coverage | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 95% |
Adult medical male circumcision (MMC) | Only unmarried men are assumed to get circumcised as a result of programmes that promote MMC as an HIV prevention strategy | ✓ | ✓ | - | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 550,000 circumcisions (model maximum) |
Early infant male circumcision (EIMC)a | Circumcision of male infants in their first year of life | ✓ | ✓ | - | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 70% |
Condom availability | This refers to distributing sufficient condoms to ensure that a specified proportion of sex acts (~24%) will be protected | ✓ | ✓ | - | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 95% |
PrEP for female sex workers | Providing PrEP to sex workers only | - | - | - | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 70% |
PrEP for young women | Providing PrEP to young women aged 15–24 only | - | - | - | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 70% |
Prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) | ✓ | ✓ | - | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 95% | |
Infant testing at birth | ART uptake in pregnant women | - | - | - | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 70% |
Infant testing at 6 weeks | ✓ | ✓ | - | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 95% | |
HIV counselling and testing (HCT) of general population | ✓ | ✓ | - | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 18,153,000 tests (personal communication, NDoH) | |
HCT of sex workers | - | - | - | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 95% | |
HCT of adolescents | Dedicated HIV testing drives targeted at sex workers | - | - | - | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 95% |
Social and behaviour change (SBCC) mass media campaign 1b | Dedicated HIV testing drives targeted at adolescents | - | ✓ | - | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 95% |
SBCC mass media campaign 2 | Message of reducing multiple sexual partners and increasing testing in adolescents | ✓ | ✓ | - | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 95% |
SBCC mass media campaign 3 | Message of increasing condom usage and self-efficacy | ✓ | ✓ | - | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 95% |