Fig. 5
From: Spontaneous social distancing in response to a simulated epidemic: a virtual experiment
Best and worst examples of model fit. The player’s chosen infection radius ri,t + 1 is plotted against the corresponding infection load, Ii,t, at all time steps t for six games. (A “game” refers to a single round of the computer game, played by a distinct participant). The solid line shows the prediction based on Eq. (1) with α calculated as a geometric mean of the values of αi,t at each step in the given game; broken lines are based upon the 95 % confidence intervals for α. Games number 336, 808, 237 and 66 (panels (a)to (d), respectively) are examples of a very good fit (low MAPE scores), whereas games 619 (panel (e)) and 749 (panel (f)) are examples where the fit was bad