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Table 2 Total projected TB related outcomes per 1,000 general population, in Indonesia over 20 years

From: Modeling the impact of tuberculosis interventions on epidemiologic outcomes and health system costs

Intervention

Specific parameter changed1

Primary active cases arising in cohort over 20 years3

Total projected outcomes related to the primary cases

 

Parameter

Pre-intervention

Post-intervention

Death during diagnosis/treatment phase

Cure due to treatment

Secondary cases generated from primary cases

Health system costs

Baseline

-

-

-

19 · 27

12 · 52

0 · 97

28 · 87

$2,641 · 47

Community Education

Patient delay2

11%

6%

19 · 27

12 · 39

0 · 99

28 · 54

$2,696 · 70

DOTS expansion for diagnosis

Incorrect Diagnostic Test (in public sector)

60%

35%

19 · 27

11 · 90

1 · 24

27 · 38

$3,302 · 55

Diagnostic Delay2 (in public sector)

8%

0 · 5%

19 · 27

12 · 48

0 · 98

28 · 71

$2,670 · 63

Loss to follow up during Diagnosis (in public sector)

25%

14%

19 · 27

12 · 37

1 · 03

28 · 51

$2,800 · 83

DOTS Expansion for Treatment

Incorrect Treatment (in public sector)

79%

13%

19 · 27

12 · 02

2 · 33

27 · 89

$2,646 · 61

Non specific DOTS Expansion (NTP Strengthening)

Access Government Facility

43%

73%

19 · 27

12 · 42

0 · 99

28 · 62

$2,764 · 86

Private Sector interventions

Incorrect Diagnostic test (in private sector)

62%

36%

19 · 27

11 · 75

1 · 33

27 · 04

$3,455 · 53

Diagnostic Delay2 (in private sector)

11%

0 · 7%

19 · 27

12 · 46

0 · 98

28 · 63

$2,685 · 49

Loss to follow up during Diagnosis (in private sector)

25%

14%

19 · 27

12 · 35

1 · 05

28 · 46

$2,823 · 16

Incorrect Treatment (in private sector)

77%

13%

19 · 27

11 · 97

2 · 48

27 · 79

$2,647 · 19

HIV/ ART therapy programmes

HIV (+) Death

12%

10%

19 · 27

12 · 52

0 · 97

28 · 87

$2,641 · 47

HIV (+) Relapse

16%

1%

19 · 27

12 · 52

0 · 97

28 · 87

$2,641 · 47

HIV (+) Reactivation

3 · 4%

2%

19 · 26

12 · 52

0 · 96

28 · 86

$2,640 · 66

MDR-TB related interventions

DST performed

20%

50%

19 · 27

12 · 52

0 · 97

28 · 87

$2,693 · 77

Loss to follow up during MDR Treatment

22%

11%

19 · 27

12 · 52

0 · 97

28 · 87

$2,642 · 53

  1. Notes: 1See Table 1 for more detail; 2Delay = % with 1 year delay; 3Primary cases are those which would arise from reactivation of pre-existing latent TB infection, or progression from newly acquired infection, but do NOT include cases arising from transmission from the primary cases.
  2. (Change in estimate shown represents change relative to baseline for a change in only one parameter and all others remain at pre-intervention values).