The potential for measles transmission in England

BMC Public Health

Table 3 The potential measles outbreak size (000s) by age group, under four scenarios of under-estimation of vaccine coverage.

Age group	Assumed level of under-estimation in vaccine coverage*
	20%	30%	40%	50%
0–4 years	22.7	13.0	5.9	1.3
5–10 years	49.9	26.8	11.3	2.2
11–17 years	39.3	22.3	9.5	1.8
18–24 years	3.3	2.0	0.9	0.2
25 years+	9.9	5.8	2.7	0.6
Overall	125.2	70.1	30.6	6.3
In London	105.8	61.8	29.6	6.3

* The proportion of children recorded as unvaccinated who had received one dose and the proportion of children recorded as having received a single dose who had received two doses was assumed to be 20%, 30%, 40% or 50%.

ISSN: 1471-2458