Figure 3

Suboptimal efficacy and immunogenicity. Suboptimal values of the efficacy or the immunogenicity lead to qualitative changes in the outcome. A. There is a critical vaccine efficacy (77% in this example), such that no amount of vaccination can eradicate targeted types of the disease if the efficacy falls below this critical value. In this case, eradication of targeted types could only occur if more than 100% of children were vaccinated, which is not possible. B. If the vaccine efficacy allows for eradication of targeted types, there is a critical vaccine immunogenicity (80% in this example), such that even 100% of childhood vaccination will not eradicate targeted types of the disease. In this case, there is a minimum level of adult vaccination coverage that is required for eradication of targeted types (18% if the immunogenicity falls to 75%), even if 100% childhood coverage levels can be achieved. Adult immunogenicity was assumed to be equal to childhood immunogenicity. All other parameters as in the Table.