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Table 2 Lay people's anticipations of fatalities and effect of Tamiflu® during a serious influenza epidemica

From: Influenza pandemic: perception of risk and individual precautions in a general population. Cross sectional study

Absolute (baseline) risk (number of fatalities in a population of 4.6 mill) Relative to the authorities' mortality predictionb Proportion of respondents (n = 1168)
0.0002% – 0.02% Below 48 %
0.04% – 1.1% Similar 22 %
2.2% – 22% Above 3 %
Uncertain   27 %
Relative risk reduction from Tamiflu ®  
< 50 % 24 %
50 – 100% 24 %
Inconsistent (ARRb > baseline risk) 3 %
Uncertain 48 %
Number needed to treat  
< 1000 9 %
> 1000 41 %
Inconsistent (ARRc>baseline risk) 3 %
Uncertain 47 %
  1. a) Estimated from the respondents' anticipated number of fatalities and number of fatalities averted by Tamiflu®, relative to a total population of 4.6 million.
  2. b) The Norwegian Institute of Public Health states that 0.05%–1% of the population might die during an influenza pandemic
  3. c) ARR = absolute risk reduction