Table 3 Characteristics at baseline and ten years for age-standardised group, adjusted odds ratios (and 95% confidence intervals) for age standardised and age matched analysis

Age (years)

70–74

366

(7)

32

(1)

7.2

(4.9–10.6)

Matched

75–79

2883

(40)

1238

(43)

1.0

80–84

2256

(31)

1016

(35)

0.8

(0.7–0.9)

85+

1508

(21)

859

(21)

0.7

(0.6–0.8)

Centre

Cambridgeshire

1,385

(19)

645

(21)

0.8

(0.6–0.9)

Matched

Gwynedd

1,541

(21)

721

(23)

0.8

(0.7–0.9)

Newcastle

1,299

(19)

575

(18)

1.0

(0.8–1.1)

Nottingham

1,318

(18)

511

(16)

1.0

(0.9–1.2)

Oxford

1,470

(23)

693

(21)

1.0

Women

Women

4,540

(65)

1,907

(60)

Not included

Not included

Accomodation:

Own Home

5,737

(82)

2,693

(87)

1.0

Not included

Warden controlled

708

(10)

261

(8)

1.3

(1.1–1.6)

Residential home

537

(8)

184

(5)

1.0

(0.7–1.3)

Marital status

Married/cohabiting

2,614

(39)

1,237

(41)

1.0

1.0

Single

622

(9)

227

(7)

1.3

(1.0–1.6)

1.4

(1.1–1.8)

Widowed

3,458

(50)

1,547

(48)

1.2

(1.0–1.3)

1.2

(1.1–1.4)

Divorced/Separated

154

(2)

109

(4)

0.6

(0.5–0.9)

0.6

(0.4–0.9)

Manual social class

3,758

(57)

1,543

(50)

Not included

Not included

Years of education <=9

4,306

(64)

1,723

(55)

1.3

(1.2–1.5)

1.4

(1.2–1.6)

MMSE

Incomplete

218

(3)

41

(1)

5.6

(2.6–11.7)

6.8

(2.9–15.7)

<= 21

630

(9)

189

(5)

2.9

(2.0–4.1)

2.9

(2.1–4.0)

22–25

745

(10)

222

(7)

2.1

(1.7–2.6)

2.3

(1.8–2.8)

26–28

2004

(29)

682

(21)

1.8

(1.6–2.0)

1.9

(1.7–2.2)

29–30

3416

(49)

2011

(66)

1.0

1.0

Screening AGECAT O3+

699

(10)

242

(7)

0.8

(0.6–1.0)

Not included

Family history of dementia

687

(10)

505

(16)

0.6

(0.5–0.7)

0.6

(0.5–0.7)

Depression ever

443

(7)

447

(15)

0.4

(0.3–0.5)

0.4

(0.3–0.5)

Disability

No ADL-IADL disability

3,832

(56)

1,575

(54)

1.0

1.0

IADL disability only

1,192

(17)

762

(25)

0.6

(0.6–0.7)

0.6

(0.5–0.7)

ADL disability

1,843

(26)

700

(21)

0.8

(0.7–0.9)

0.8

(0.7–1.0)

Townsend ADL 11+

1,269

(19)

608

(19)

Not included

Not included

Stroke

595

(9)

309

(10)

Not included

Not included

More than one cardiovascular disease

2,836

(42)

2,000

(66)

0.5

(0.5–0.6)

0.5

(0.5–0.5)

Self perceived health

Poor

1,216

(18)

551

(18)

0.9

(0.8–1.1)

1.0

(0.9–1.2)

Fair

3,115

(47)

1557

(53)

1.0

1.0

Good

1,954

(29)

747

(25)

1.5

(1.3–1.7)

1.3

(1.1–1.5)

Excellent

382

(6)

117

(4)

1.9

(1.4–2.4)

1.7

(1.3–2.3)

Sight or hearing problem

2,773

(40)

1,020

(31)

1.6

(1.5–1.8)

1.6

(1.4–1.8)

Ever smoked

2,697

(60)

2,044

(66)

0.8

(0.7–0.9)

0.8

(0.7–0.9)

Alcohol

Don't drink

1,012

(17)

289

(10)

1.6

(1.3–1.8)

1.7

(1.4–2.1)

Drink not to excess

4,016

(67)

2028

(71)

1.0

1.0

Drink evidence of excess

968

(16)

532

(19)

0.9

(0.8–1.1)

0.9

(0.8–1.1)