Complication | Consequence | Distribution | Mean | Minimum | Maximum |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Uncomplicated measles case | |||||

% cases not seeking medical attention | Triangular | 22.5 | 0.0 | 45.0 | |

Cases not seeing a GP
| Number of antipyretics bought | Exponential | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.5 |

Number of antitussives bought | Tirangular | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.0 | |

Number of working hours missed | Uniform | 12 | 6.0 | 18.0 | |

Cases seeing a GP
| Number of visits to GP | Triangular | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 |

Number of antibiotics bought | Uniform | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | |

Number of antipyretics bought | Triangular | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | |

Number of antitussives bought | Triangular | 1.3 | 0.0 | 4.0 | |

Number of working hours missed | Uniform | 16.0 | 8.0 | 24.0 | |

Complicated measles cases
| |||||

% complicated cases | Triangular | 7.5 | 4.0 | 12.5 | |

Hospitalised
| LoS hospital – all wards | Triangular | 4.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 |

LoS Intensive care Unit | Uniform | 5.7 | 1 | 10.4 | |

% of hospital time spent in intensive care | Triangular | 6.5 | 4.0 | 8.0 | |

Specific costs for hospitalised complicated cases
| |||||

Otitis media | Frequency (per 100) | Triangular | 3.5 | 2.0 | 6.0 |

% hospitalised | Triangular | 0.2 | 0.05 | 0.3 | |

LoS hospital | Triangular | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | |

Pneumonia and other severe RTI | Frequency (per 100) | Uniform | 4.3 | 1.0 | 8.0 |

% hospitalised | Uniform | 15.0 | 10.0 | 20.0 | |

LoS hospital | Triangular | 7.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | |

Encephalitis | Frequency (per 100) | Triangular | 0.13 | 0.1 | 0.2 |

% hospitalised | Fixed | 100.0 | |||

LoS hospital | Triangular | 6.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | |

Thrombocytopenia | Frequency (per 100) | Uniform | 2.1 | 0.4 | 5.0 |

% hospitalised | Fixed | 100.0 | |||

LoS hospital | Uniform | 3.8 | 2.0 | 5.6 | |

Convulsions | Frequency (per 100) | Triangular | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 |

% hospitalised | Triangular | 20.0 | 10.0 | 40.0 | |

LoS hospital | Uniform | 2.6 | 1.0 | 4.2 | |

SSPE | Frequency (per 100,000) | Triangular | 3.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 |

Long term sequelae following acute encephalitis
| |||||

Proportion of cases with extra hospitalisation | Uniform | 35.0 | 20.0 | 50.0 | |

Proportion of cases with extra consultations with a physician | Uniform | 15.0 | 10.0 | 20.0 | |

Proportion of cases with chronic treatment for epilepsy | Uniform | 20.0 | 10.0 | 30.0 | |

Proportion of cases missing school from = week to < 1 month | Uniform | 12.5 | 5.0 | 20.0 | |

Proportion of cases missing school = 1 month | Uniform | 6.0 | 1.0 | 11.0 | |

Number of school days missed between 1 week and 1 month | Triangular | 11.7 | 5.0 | 20.0 | |

Number of school days missed during = 1 month | Triangular | 37.0 | 21.0 | 60.0 | |

Proportion of cases needing residential care | Uniform | 5.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | |

Long term sequelae following acute febrile convulsions
| |||||

Proportion of cases with extra hospitalisation | Uniform | 35.0 | 25.0 | 45.0 | |

Proportion of cases with extra consultations with a physician | Uniform | 20.0 | 10.0 | 30.0 | |

Proportion of cases with chronic treatment for epilepsy | Uniform | 12.5 | 8.0 | 17.0 | |

Variables common to long term sequelae
| |||||

Average number of extra hospitalisation per year | Triangular | 0.33 | 0.1 | 0.6 | |

Average number of extra physician visits per year | Triangular | 3.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 |