Table 1 Distributions used in the simulations to estimate the average costs per measles case.
Complication | Consequence | Distribution | Mean | Minimum | Maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Uncomplicated measles case | |||||
% cases not seeking medical attention | Triangular | 22.5 | 0.0 | 45.0 | |
Cases not seeing a GP | Number of antipyretics bought | Exponential | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.5 |
Number of antitussives bought | Tirangular | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.0 | |
Number of working hours missed | Uniform | 12 | 6.0 | 18.0 | |
Cases seeing a GP | Number of visits to GP | Triangular | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
Number of antibiotics bought | Uniform | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | |
Number of antipyretics bought | Triangular | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | |
Number of antitussives bought | Triangular | 1.3 | 0.0 | 4.0 | |
Number of working hours missed | Uniform | 16.0 | 8.0 | 24.0 | |
Complicated measles cases | |||||
% complicated cases | Triangular | 7.5 | 4.0 | 12.5 | |
Hospitalised | LoS hospital – all wards | Triangular | 4.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 |
LoS Intensive care Unit | Uniform | 5.7 | 1 | 10.4 | |
% of hospital time spent in intensive care | Triangular | 6.5 | 4.0 | 8.0 | |
Specific costs for hospitalised complicated cases | |||||
Otitis media | Frequency (per 100) | Triangular | 3.5 | 2.0 | 6.0 |
% hospitalised | Triangular | 0.2 | 0.05 | 0.3 | |
LoS hospital | Triangular | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | |
Pneumonia and other severe RTI | Frequency (per 100) | Uniform | 4.3 | 1.0 | 8.0 |
% hospitalised | Uniform | 15.0 | 10.0 | 20.0 | |
LoS hospital | Triangular | 7.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | |
Encephalitis | Frequency (per 100) | Triangular | 0.13 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
% hospitalised | Fixed | 100.0 | |||
LoS hospital | Triangular | 6.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | |
Thrombocytopenia | Frequency (per 100) | Uniform | 2.1 | 0.4 | 5.0 |
% hospitalised | Fixed | 100.0 | |||
LoS hospital | Uniform | 3.8 | 2.0 | 5.6 | |
Convulsions | Frequency (per 100) | Triangular | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
% hospitalised | Triangular | 20.0 | 10.0 | 40.0 | |
LoS hospital | Uniform | 2.6 | 1.0 | 4.2 | |
SSPE | Frequency (per 100,000) | Triangular | 3.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 |
Long term sequelae following acute encephalitis | |||||
Proportion of cases with extra hospitalisation | Uniform | 35.0 | 20.0 | 50.0 | |
Proportion of cases with extra consultations with a physician | Uniform | 15.0 | 10.0 | 20.0 | |
Proportion of cases with chronic treatment for epilepsy | Uniform | 20.0 | 10.0 | 30.0 | |
Proportion of cases missing school from = week to < 1 month | Uniform | 12.5 | 5.0 | 20.0 | |
Proportion of cases missing school = 1 month | Uniform | 6.0 | 1.0 | 11.0 | |
Number of school days missed between 1 week and 1 month | Triangular | 11.7 | 5.0 | 20.0 | |
Number of school days missed during = 1 month | Triangular | 37.0 | 21.0 | 60.0 | |
Proportion of cases needing residential care | Uniform | 5.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | |
Long term sequelae following acute febrile convulsions | |||||
Proportion of cases with extra hospitalisation | Uniform | 35.0 | 25.0 | 45.0 | |
Proportion of cases with extra consultations with a physician | Uniform | 20.0 | 10.0 | 30.0 | |
Proportion of cases with chronic treatment for epilepsy | Uniform | 12.5 | 8.0 | 17.0 | |
Variables common to long term sequelae | |||||
Average number of extra hospitalisation per year | Triangular | 0.33 | 0.1 | 0.6 | |
Average number of extra physician visits per year | Triangular | 3.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | |