A Markov chain model for studying suicide dynamics: an illustration of the Rose theorem

BMC Public Health

Table 1 Sensitivity analyses of number of suicides respective to the parameters of p ₄₁ and p ₄₂

p ₄₁	p ₄₂	p ₄₂/p ₄₁	z	Δz ^a	Δz/z ^a	Δp ₄₂ ^b
						(×10^-5)
Reference conditions
0.0000834	0.0025	30	1152	67	5.8%	29
p ₄₂ fixed at 0.0025
0.00001	0.0025	250	659	67	10.2%	29
0.0001	0.0025	25	1264	67	5.3%	29
0.0005	0.0025	5	3950	67	1.7%	29
p ₄₁ fixed at 0.0000834
0.0000834	0.0001	1	584	67	11.5%	28
0.0000834	0.001	12	801	67	8.4%	28
0.0000834	0.005	60	1710	67	3.9%	31
0.0000834	0.01	120	2734	67	2.5%	35
p ₄₂ /p ₄₁ fixed at 30
0.00001	0.0003	30	140	67	47.9%	28
0.0001	0.003	30	1378	67	4.9%	30
0.0005	0.015	30	6460	67	1.0%	39

Note: results for p ₄₂/p ₄₁, z, Δz, Δz/z, and Δp ₄₂ are rounded numbers.
^aIf reduce p ₄₁ by Δp ₄₁=1×10^-5.
^bReduction in p ₄₂ to obtain equivalent Δz under reduction of p ₄₁ by Δp ₄₁=1 × 10^-5.

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