Table 1 Input data, base case

11-years old women cohort (2012)

123,581 [18]

Screening characteristics[19]

Regular screening coverage

57.0% [20]

Interval between regular screening

3 years [10]

Irregular screening coverage

0.0%

Population without screening

43.0% [20]

Age of initiation of screening

25 years [10]

Sensitivity to detect CIN1

58.0% [10]

Sensitivity to detect CIN2 and CIN3

61.0% [10]

Estimated positive Pap smear

1.7% [10]

Treatment performance[21]

CIN1 detected by the screening and undergoing treatment ^a

40.0% [22]

Efficacy of CIN1 treatment ^a

100.0% [10]

CIN1 treatment effectiveness ^b

40.0%

CIN2 and CIN3 detected by the screening and undergoing treatment ^a

100.0% [10]

Efficacy of CIN 2 and 3 treatment ^a

90.0% [10]

CIN2 and CIN3 treatment effectiveness ^b

90.0%

Five-year cancer cure rate

64.0% [1]

Parameters to estimate vaccine effectiveness

Prevalence of HPV types 16 and 18 in cervical cancer

80.0% [23]

Prevalence of other oncogenic HPV in cervical cancer

20.0% [23]

Prevalence of HPV types 16 and 18 in CIN23

46.5% [19]

Prevalence of other oncogenic HPV in CIN23

29.8% [19]

Prevalence of HPV types 16 and 18 in CIN1

36.5% [19]

Prevalence of other oncogenic HPV in CIN1

42.9% [19]

Prevalence of HPV types 6 and 11 in CIN1

15.8% [19]

Prevalence of HPV types 6 and 11 in GW

76.2% [24]

Vaccine efficacy to HPV types16 and 18 CC (HPV-16/18 & HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccines)

98.0%/98.0% [25–27]

Vaccine efficacy to HPV types16 and 18 CIN23 (HPV-16/18 & HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccines)

98.0%/98.0% [25–27]

Vaccine efficacy to HPV types16 and 18 CIN1 (HPV-16/18 & HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccines)

98.0%/98.0% [25–27]

Vaccine efficacy to other oncogenic HPV CC (HPV-16/18 & HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccines)

68.4%/32.5% [28–31]

Vaccine efficacy to other oncogenic HPV CIN23 (HPV-16/18 & HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccines)

68.4%/32.5% [28–31]

Vaccine efficacy to other oncogenic HPV CIN1 (HPV-16/18 & HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccines)

47.7%/23.4% [28, 29, 32]

Vaccine efficacy to HPV types 6 and 11 for HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine

98.0% [33, 34]

Costs[35]

US dollars

Pap smear cost (including false positive tests)

26.19

GW treatment

62.00

CIN1 treatment & follow-up cost

1,636.00

CIN2 and CIN3 treatment & follow-up cost

1,636.00

Cervical cancer treatment

13,218.00

Cost per vaccinated woman (price parity between vaccines) ^c

60.00