The potential impact on obesity of a 10% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in Ireland, an effect assessment modelling study

Table 3 Estimated reduction in obesity from a 10% tax by age (CI = credible interval)

Age	Percentage reduction in obesity (number of people shown in brackets)
Age	Female	Male	Overall
18-24	2.4% (410)	3.3% (350)	2.9% (790)
25-34	2.2% (850)	2.0% (940)	2.1% (1,790)
35-44	1.6% (730)	1.3% (780)	1.4% (1,510)
45-54	0.8% (440)	0.9% (540)	0.8% (980)
55-64	0.7% (290)	0.8% (360)	0.7% (660)
65-74	0.5% (90)	0.7% (200)	0.6% (290)
75+	0.5% (60)	0.7% (50)	0.6% (110)
Overall	1.3% (2,920)	1.2% (3,250)	1.3% (6,170)
Overall	(95% CI: 1,920 to 3,860)	(95% CI: 2,310 to 4,200)	(95% CI: 4,240 to 8,060)
Overall (adjusted)	1.3% (5,310)	1.2% (4,600)	1.3% (9,900)
Overall (adjusted)	(95% CI: 3,490 to 7,020)	(95% CI: 3,260 to 5,920)	(95% CI: 6,750 to 12,940)

Estimates are of the reduction in adults with a BMI ≥ 30 kg/m² and are based on a tax pass on rate of 90%, price elasticity of −0.9. Numbers may not sum due to rounding. Adjusted results are scaled up for under-reporting of obesity; they are derived assuming a baseline prevalence of male obesity of 22% and female obesity of 24% (compared to 16% and 13% respectively in the unadjusted results). Estimates for each age group are weighted for sex; and the overall estimate is weighted for age and sex of the Irish population.

ISSN: 1471-2458