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Table 2 Deaths from coronary heart disease prevented or postponed as a result of changes in population risk factors in Turkey, 1995-2008

From: Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Turkey between 1995 and 2008

Risk factor Number of eligible patients Absolute level of risk factors Change in risk factors Beta regression coefficient for change in mortality rate Relative risk Deaths prevented or posponed    
   1995 2008 Absolute change Relative change (%)    Number of deaths Percent of total reduction
         Best estimate Minimum estimate Maximum estimate Best estimate Minimum estimate Maximum estimate
Smoking prevalence, % 27186380 27.0 16.0 -11.0 -36.1    9724 7779 11669 27.2 21.8 32.7
Men 13497080 44.4 24.6 -19.8 -45.5   2.52 8377 6702 10053 48.8 39.0 58.6
Women 13689300 9.4 7.2 -2.2 -27.2   2.14 1347 1077 1616 7.3 5.8 8.7
Systolic BP, mmHg 27186380 127.3 124.6 -2.8 -2.0    13549 8889 18937 37.9 24.9 53.0
Men 13497080 124.1 123.3 -0.7 -0.0 -0.033   3579 2318 5081 15.8 10.3 22.5
Women 13689300 130.2 125.8 -4.4 -3.5 -0.041   9970 6572 13855 55.9 36.8 77.6
Population BP after adjustment for hypertension treatments         10363 8263 12990 29.0 23.1 36.4
Total cholesterol, mmol/L 27186380 4.96 4.97 0.01 0.01    -354 -226 -510 -1.0 -0.6 -1.4
Men 13497080 4.91 4.92 0.01 0.01 -0.627   -200 -128 -288 -0.0 0.0 0.1
Women 13689300 5.02 5.03 0.01 0.01 -0.619   -154 -99 -222 -0.0 0.0 0.1
Population TC after adjustment for antilipidemic treatments         -395 -237 -715 1.1 0.7 2.0
BMI, kg/m2 27186380 27.4 29.0 1.59 6.0    -3790 -2149 -5784 10.6 6.0 16.2
Men 13497080 26.1 27.9 1.80 7.0 0.028   -2117 -1202 -3227 12.3 7.0 18.8
Women 13689300 28.7 30.1 1.37 5.0 0.028   -1673 -947 -2557 9.0 5.1 13.8
Diabetes prevalence, % 27186380 15.5 18.7 3.2 18.7    -5086 -4069 -6103 -14.2 11.4 17.1
Men 13497080 14.5 17.5 3.0 20.4   1.93 -1866 -1493 -2240 -10.9 8.7 13.0
Women 13689300 16.4 19.9 3.4 17.2   2.59 -3220 -2576 -3864 -17.4 13.9 20.8
Physical inactivity 27186380 70.0 65.0 -5.0 -7.0    1919 1535 2303 5.4 4.3 6.4
Mean Fruit&Vegetable consumption in portions 27186380 3.2 3.5 32.0 10.0 0.041   2377 475 4974 6.7 1.3 13.9
Total risk factors         15112 11597 19333 42.3 32.5 57.3
  1. BMI = weight [kg]/height [m]2.