Table 2 Deaths from coronary heart disease prevented or postponed as a result of changes in population risk factors in Turkey, 1995-2008
From: Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Turkey between 1995 and 2008
Risk factor | Number of eligible patients | Absolute level of risk factors | Change in risk factors | Beta regression coefficient for change in mortality rate | Relative risk | Deaths prevented or posponed | Â | Â | Â | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Â | Â | 1995 | 2008 | Absolute change | Relative change (%) | Â | Â | Number of deaths | Percent of total reduction | ||||
| Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Best estimate | Minimum estimate | Maximum estimate | Best estimate | Minimum estimate | Maximum estimate |
Smoking prevalence, % | 27186380 | 27.0 | 16.0 | -11.0 | -36.1 | Â | Â | 9724 | 7779 | 11669 | 27.2 | 21.8 | 32.7 |
Men | 13497080 | 44.4 | 24.6 | -19.8 | -45.5 | Â | 2.52 | 8377 | 6702 | 10053 | 48.8 | 39.0 | 58.6 |
Women | 13689300 | 9.4 | 7.2 | -2.2 | -27.2 | Â | 2.14 | 1347 | 1077 | 1616 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 8.7 |
Systolic BP, mmHg | 27186380 | 127.3 | 124.6 | -2.8 | -2.0 | Â | Â | 13549 | 8889 | 18937 | 37.9 | 24.9 | 53.0 |
Men | 13497080 | 124.1 | 123.3 | -0.7 | -0.0 | -0.033 | Â | 3579 | 2318 | 5081 | 15.8 | 10.3 | 22.5 |
Women | 13689300 | 130.2 | 125.8 | -4.4 | -3.5 | -0.041 | Â | 9970 | 6572 | 13855 | 55.9 | 36.8 | 77.6 |
Population BP after adjustment for hypertension treatments | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | 10363 | 8263 | 12990 | 29.0 | 23.1 | 36.4 |
Total cholesterol, mmol/L | 27186380 | 4.96 | 4.97 | 0.01 | 0.01 | Â | Â | -354 | -226 | -510 | -1.0 | -0.6 | -1.4 |
Men | 13497080 | 4.91 | 4.92 | 0.01 | 0.01 | -0.627 | Â | -200 | -128 | -288 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Women | 13689300 | 5.02 | 5.03 | 0.01 | 0.01 | -0.619 | Â | -154 | -99 | -222 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Population TC after adjustment for antilipidemic treatments | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | -395 | -237 | -715 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 2.0 |
BMI, kg/m2 | 27186380 | 27.4 | 29.0 | 1.59 | 6.0 | Â | Â | -3790 | -2149 | -5784 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 16.2 |
Men | 13497080 | 26.1 | 27.9 | 1.80 | 7.0 | 0.028 | Â | -2117 | -1202 | -3227 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 18.8 |
Women | 13689300 | 28.7 | 30.1 | 1.37 | 5.0 | 0.028 | Â | -1673 | -947 | -2557 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 13.8 |
Diabetes prevalence, % | 27186380 | 15.5 | 18.7 | 3.2 | 18.7 | Â | Â | -5086 | -4069 | -6103 | -14.2 | 11.4 | 17.1 |
Men | 13497080 | 14.5 | 17.5 | 3.0 | 20.4 | Â | 1.93 | -1866 | -1493 | -2240 | -10.9 | 8.7 | 13.0 |
Women | 13689300 | 16.4 | 19.9 | 3.4 | 17.2 | Â | 2.59 | -3220 | -2576 | -3864 | -17.4 | 13.9 | 20.8 |
Physical inactivity | 27186380 | 70.0 | 65.0 | -5.0 | -7.0 | Â | Â | 1919 | 1535 | 2303 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 6.4 |
Mean Fruit&Vegetable consumption in portions | 27186380 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 32.0 | 10.0 | 0.041 | Â | 2377 | 475 | 4974 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 13.9 |
Total risk factors | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | 15112 | 11597 | 19333 | 42.3 | 32.5 | 57.3 |