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Table 4 SimSmoke Projections: Female smoking prevalence for ages 15 and above, Italy, 2010-2040

From: Italy SimSmoke: the effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths in Italy

POLICIES

2010

2011

2020

2030

2040

Status Quo Policies

14.9%

14.8%

14.1%

13.2%

12.0%

Independent Policy Effects

Rolling Price Changes**

14.9%

14.4%

12.8%

11.7%

10.5%

Complete Smoke Free Air Laws

14.9%

14.8%

14.1%

13.2%

12.0%

Comprehensive Marketing Ban

14.9%

14.7%

14.0%

13.1%

11.9%

High Intensity Tobacco Control Campaign

14.9%

13.9%

13.1%

12.1%

11.0%

Strong Health Warnings

14.9%

14.8%

14.0%

13.1%

11.9%

Strong Youth Access Enforcement

14.9%

14.8%

13.8%

12.6%

11.3%

Cessation Treatment Policies

14.9%

14.5%

13.5%

12.4%

11.3%

Combined Policy Effects

All above

14.9%

13.0%

10.8%

9.4%

8.0%

Relative Change in Smoking Prevalence from Status Quo*

Independent Policy Effects

Rolling Price Changes**

 

−2.7%

−9.2%

−10.9%

−12.6%

Complete Smoke Free Air Laws

 

−0.2%

−0.2%

−0.2%

−0.1%

Comprehensive Marketing Ban

 

−0.7%

−0.8%

−0.9%

−0.9%

High Intensity Tobacco Control Campaign

 

−6.2%

−7.2%

−7.9%

−8.5%

Strong Health Warnings

 

−0.2%

−0.7%

−0.9%

−1.1%

Strong Youth Access Enforcement

 

−0.3%

−2.2%

−4.1%

−6.1%

Cessation Treatment Policies

 

−1.9%

−4.4%

−5.7%

−6.4%

Combined Policy Effects

All above

 

−12.0%

−23.5%

−28.9%

−33.2%

  1. * Measured relative to the status quo in the same year, i.e., (SRp,t-SRStatus quo,t)/ SRStatus quo,t, where SRp,t is the smoking rate in year t with policy p and SRStatus quo,t is the smoking rate in year t under the status quo.
  2. ** 25% change 2010–2011, 20% change 2011–2012, 15% change 2012–2013, 10 % change 2013–2014, 5% change 2014–2015. Prices kept at 2015 level throughout the remaining projection period.