Table 2 Policies, description and effect sizes of the SimSmoke model

Through price elasticity:

Tax Policy

Cigarette price index

−0.3 ages 15–24

−0.2 ages 25–34

−0.1 ages 35 and above

Clean Air Policies

Worksite total Ban

Ban in all areas

6% with variations by age and gender

Worksite ban except ventilated areas

Smoking restricted to ventilated areas in all indoor workplaces

4% with variations by age and gender

Worksite ban limited to common area

Smoking limited to non ventilated common area

2% with variations by age and gender

Restaurant total ban

Ban in all indoor restaurants in all areas

1% effect

Restaurant ban except separate areas

Ban in all restaurants except in designated areas

0.5% effect

Other places total ban

Ban in 3 of 4 (malls, retail stores, public transportation and elevators)

1% effect

Enforcement and publicity

Government agency is designated to enforce and publicize the laws

Effects reduced by as much as 50% if 0 enforcement

Mass Media Campaigns

Highly publicized campaign

Campaign publicized heavily on TV (at least two months of the year) and at least some other media

3.25% effect (doubled when accompanied by local programs)

Moderately publicized campaign

Campaign publicized sporadically on TV and in at least some other media, and a local program

1.8% effect (doubled when accompanied by local programs)

Low publicity campaign

Campaign publicized only sporadically in newspaper, billboard or some other media.

0.5% effect (doubled when accompanied by local programs)

Marketing Ban

Comprehensive marketing ban

Ban is applied television, radio, print, billboard, in-store displays, sponsorships and free samples

5% reduction in prevalence,

6% reduction in initiation,

3% increase in cessation rates

Total Advertising Ban

Ban is applied all media television, radio, print, billboard

3% reduction in prevalence,

4% reduction in initiation,

2% increase in cessation rates

Weak advertising ban

Ban is applied some of television, radio, print, billboard

1% reduction in prevalence and initiation only

Enforcement and publicity

Government agency is designated to enforce the laws

Effects reduced by as much as 50% if 0 enforcement

Warning Labels

Strong

Labels are large, bold and graphic

2% reduction in prevalence

2% reduction in initiation

4% increase in cessation rate

Weak

Laws cover less than 1/3 of package, not bold or graphic

1% reduction in prevalence & initiation rates, 2% increase in cessation rates

Publicity

Health information is well publicized

1% additional effect on prevalence and initiation rates

Cessation Treatment Policy

Complete availability and reimbursement of pharmaco- and behavioral treatments, quitlines, and brief interventions

4.75% reduction in prevalence, 39% increase in cessation rate

Youth Access Restrictions

Strongly enforced & publicized

Compliance checks are conducted regularly, penalties are heavy, and with publicity is strong, vending machine and self-service bans

30% reduction for age < 16 in prevalence and initiation only,

20 % reduction for ages 16–17 in prevalence and initiation only

Well enforced

Compliance checks are conducted sporadically, penalties are potent, and little publicity

15 % reduction for age < 16 in prevalence and initiation only,

10 % reduction for ages 16–17 in prevalence and initiation only

Low enforcement

Compliance checks are not conducted, penalties are weak, and no publicity

3 % reduction for age < 16 in prevalence and initiation only,

2 % reduction for ages 16–17 in prevalence and initiation only