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Table 4 Financial outcomes of all risk factors if feasible targets achieved, corrected for joint effects

From: The societal benefits of reducing six behavioural risk factors: an economic modelling study from Australia

All 6 risk factors   95% Uncertainty Interval
AUD millions Mean Lower Limit Upper Limit
Potential opportunity costs FCA    
   Production gains/(losses) 473 (2) 1,155
Recruitment/training costs 79 n/a n/a
   Leisure based production 110 (361) 602
   Home based production 248 (69) 568
Total production FCA 830 ( 109 ) 1,843
   Health sector offsets 1,504 1,504 1,504
Total Opportunity Cost Savings FCA 2,334 1,395 3,347
Sensitivity analysis using Human Capital Approach (HCA)
Financial Outcomes HCA
   Production gains/(losses) 1,196 (648) 3,070
   Leisure based production 110 (361) 602
   Home based production 248 (69) 568
Total production HCA 1,553 ( 435 ) 3,569
   Health sector offsets 1,504 1,504 1,504
Total Opportunity Cost Savings HCA 3,057 1,069 5,073
  1. No probabilistic uncertainty analysis was conducted for health sector offsets because we were unable to quantify uncertainty for these point estimates. Taxation is treated as a transfer payment and should not be added to production effects or health sector offsets. HCA: Human Capital Approach; FCA Friction Cost Approach (preferred conservative estimate). Leisure and home based production estimates are based on persons 15+ years. Production gains/(losses) and taxation effects are based on persons 15-64 years. Recruitment and training costs are included in production gains/losses using the FCA, but not counted using the HCA. Values are net present value using a 3% discount rate. Numbers in brackets ( ) indicate the possibility of losses resulting from achieving the target, rather than gains.