The impact of mass gatherings and holiday traveling on the course of an influenza pandemic: a computational model

BMC Public Health

Table 2 Results from Different Mass Gathering Scenarios (Initial R0 = 1.5)

% population traveling (p)	Traveling Period Start Duration		Resulting R₀	Peak Prevalence	Peak Day	Total Attack Rate
p = 1%	Day 30	0.5	1.50	2.73%	70	51.0%
	Day 30	1	1.50	2.76%	70	51.0%
	Day 30	2	1.50	2.78%	71	51.0%
	Day 30	3	1.50	2.79%	70	51.0%
	Day 60	0.5	1.50	2.74%	70	51.0%
	Day 60	1	1.50	2.76%	70	51.0%
	Day 60	2	1.50	2.74%	70	51.0%
	Day 60	3	1.50	2.75%	71	51.0%
p = 5%	Day 30	0.5	1.50	2.74%	69	51.0%
	Day 30	1	1.50	2.77%	70	51.0%
	Day 30	2	1.50	2.77%	70	51.0%
	Day 30	3	1.50	2.80%	70	51.0%
	Day 60	0.5	1.50	2.74%	69	51.0%
	Day 60	1	1.50	2.81%	70	51.2%
	Day 60	2	1.51	2.83%	70	51.2%
	Day 60	3	1.50	2.78%	70	51.1%
p = 10%	Day 30	0.5	1.50	2.74%	69	51.0%
	Day 30	1	1.50	2.78%	69	51.0%
	Day 30	2	1.50	2.80%	69	51.0%
	Day 30	3	1.50	2.82%	68	51.1%
	Day60	0.5	1.50	2.80%	69	51.0%
	Day 60	1	1.51	2.85%	70	51.3%
	Day 60	2	1.51	2.89%	69	51.4%
	Day 60	3	1.50	2.80%	70	51.1%
p = 25%	Day 30	0.5	1.50	2.79%	69	51.0%
	Day 30	1	1.50	2.80%	68	51.1%
	Day 30	2	1.50	2.80%	68	51.1%
	Day 30	3	1.50	2.83%	70	51.0%
	Day 60	0.5	1.51	2.90%	69	51.4%
	Day 60	1	1.52	3.04%	69	51.7%
	Day 60	2	1.53	3.12%	69	52.0%
	Day 60	3	1.51	2.96%	71	51.4%
Baseline			1.50	2.73%	70	51.0%

The table shows the total attack rate (i.e., proportion of population that has ever been infected), the peak prevalence day and value in the non-Holiday scenarios, with several combinations of values for l (duration of the traveling/mass traveling period) and p (the proportion of the population traveling/gathering) when the initial R₀ equals to 1.5. The resulting R₀ values (after adding the traveling/mass gathering period) are obtained from the baseline scenarios (without traveling/gathering) to match the peak prevalence and the total attack rate showed in this table. The standard deviation is 0.04-0.09% for the peak prevalence and is 0.17-0.30% for the total attack rate.

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