Figure 6

speed of detection in the early weeks of pandemics. Cumulative probability of detection as a function of times taken in pandemic detection (i.e., weeks within pandemic starting). These plots are for different specificity (Sp) and pandemic case reporting rate (α): (a) Sp = 99%, α = 0.5%; (b) Sp = 95%, α = 0.5%; (c) Sp = 99%, α = 1%; (d) Sp = 95%, α = 1%, (e) Sp = 99%, α = 5%; and (f) Sp = 95%, α = 5%. The dashed line represents the 50%-level of pandemic detections. (For each method in all subplots, the detection data were pooled together from a set of 1800 overlaid time series times 33 weeks.)