Table 3 Observed and predicted HIV incidence, mortality rates, and case fatality rates in China in 2020, 2021, and 2022

Variables

Observed

Predicted

Changes 1 (%)

95% CI

p-value

Incidence Rate

(/100,000)

0.3768

0.4516

−16.5500

−16.5888, − 16.5378

<  0.001

Mortality Rate

(/100,000)

0.1133

0.1383

−18.1052

−18.1329, − 18.0204

<  0.001

Case Fatality Rate

(/100)

30.0519

31.1409

−3.4968

−3.5316, 3.4624

<  0.001

Observed

Predicted

Changes 2 (%)

95% CI

p-value

Incidence Rate

(/100,000)

0.3623

0.4839

−25.1274

−25.1529, − 25.1055

<  0.001

Mortality Rate

(/100,000)

0.1203

0.1507

−20.2136

−20.2256, − 20.1195

<  0.001

Case Fatality Rate

(/100)

33.1941

32.1872

3.1280

3.0942, 3.1624

< 0.001

Observed

Predicted

Changes 3 (%)

95% CI

p-value

Incidence Rate

(/100,000)

0.3070

0.5098

−39.7921

−39.8023, − 39.7583

< 0.001

Mortality Rate

(/100,000)

0.1108

0.1624

−31.7535

− 31.8226, − 31.7242

< 0.001

Case Fatality Rate

(/100)

36.1085

33.3384

8.3091

8.2758, 8.3424

< 0.001