From: Trends in respiratory diseases before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in China from 2010 to 2021
Disease | Optimal model | Goodness of fit | Ljung-Box test | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | RMSE | MAPE (%) | AIC | BIC | χ2 value | P-value | |
Measles | (0,1,1) x (1,0,0)12 | 1019.25 | 31.44 | 1999.4 | 2007.74 | < 0.001 | 0.99 |
Tuberculosis | (3,0,0) x (0,1,1)12 | 5636.78 | 3.90 | 2204.21 | 2220.3 | 0.013 | 0.91 |
Pertussis | (0,1,0) x (0,1,0)12 | 213.21 | 14.87 | 1465.45 | 1468.12 | 0.804 | 0.37 |
Scarlet fever | (1,0,1) x (0,1,2)12 | 814.56 | 15.09 | 1789.4 | 1805.5 | 0.096 | 0.76 |
Seasonal influenza | (0,1,0) x (0,0,2)12 | 102,523.5 | 39.97 | 3097.5 | 3105.84 | 0.076 | 0.78 |
Mumps | (2,1,1) x (0,1,2)12 | 3355.88 | 11.55 | 2073.05 | 2089.09 | 0.180 | 0.67 |
Rubella | (3,1,1) x (2,1,0)12 | 883.19 | 64.38 | 1788.69 | 1807.4 | 0.032 | 0.86 |