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Table 2 Parameters and goodness-of-fit of the seven respiratory diseases’ optimal ARIMA models

From: Trends in respiratory diseases before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in China from 2010 to 2021

Disease

Optimal model

Goodness of fit

Ljung-Box test

 

RMSE

MAPE (%)

AIC

BIC

χ2 value

P-value

Measles

(0,1,1) x (1,0,0)12

1019.25

31.44

1999.4

2007.74

< 0.001

0.99

Tuberculosis

(3,0,0) x (0,1,1)12

5636.78

3.90

2204.21

2220.3

0.013

0.91

Pertussis

(0,1,0) x (0,1,0)12

213.21

14.87

1465.45

1468.12

0.804

0.37

Scarlet fever

(1,0,1) x (0,1,2)12

814.56

15.09

1789.4

1805.5

0.096

0.76

Seasonal influenza

(0,1,0) x (0,0,2)12

102,523.5

39.97

3097.5

3105.84

0.076

0.78

Mumps

(2,1,1) x (0,1,2)12

3355.88

11.55

2073.05

2089.09

0.180

0.67

Rubella

(3,1,1) x (2,1,0)12

883.19

64.38

1788.69

1807.4

0.032

0.86

  1. RMSE root mean square error, MAPE mean absolute percentage error, AIC Akaike’s information criterion, BIC Bayesian information criterion