Table 2 Prediction of age-standardized rate (per 100,000) of all six measures for neonatal disorders for the next 5 years according to ARIMA models with 95% confidence interval in China
Measures | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Deaths | |||||
 Both | 5.7 (4.9, 6.5) | 5.3 (3.5, 7.0) | 4.8 (1.9, 7.7) | 4.3 (0.1, 8.5) | 3.9 (-1.7, 9.6) |
 Male | 6.2 (5.4, 7.1) | 5.7 (3.9, 7.6) | 5.2 (2.2, 8.3) | 4.7 (0.2, 9.2) | 4.2 (-1.8, 10.3) |
 Female | 5.1 (4.4, 5.8) | 4.7 (3.1, 6.3) | 4.3 (1.6, 6.9) | 3.9 (0, 7.7) | 3.5 (-1.6, 8.7) |
Incidence | |||||
 Both | 295.1 (289.3, 301.0) | 296.4 (283.7, 309.1) | 297.6 (280.4, 314.8) | 298.9 (277.9, 319.9) | 300.1 (275.8, 324.5) |
 Male | 290.6 (284.2, 297.1) | 292.1 (282.6, 301.7) | 293.6 (281.3, 306.0) | 295.1 (280.3, 310.0) | 296.6 (279.3, 314.0) |
 Female | 297.7 (291.8, 303.6) | 299.7 (286.9, 312.5) | 301.7 (284.1, 319.3) | 303.7 (282.0, 325.3) | 305.6 (280.2, 331.1) |
Prevalence | |||||
 Both | 1088.5 (1082.0, 1094.9) | 1118.0 (1094.0, 1142.0) | 1151.0 (1095.4, 1206.6) | 1187.6 (1084.0, 1291.2) | 1227.7 (1057.5, 1397.8) |
 Male | 1057.1 (1050.5, 1063.8) | 1084.9 (1061.2, 1108.5) | 1116.0 (1062.4, 1169.5) | 1150.5 (1051.9, 1249.0) | 1188.4 (1027.8, 1348.9) |
 Female | 1123.0 (1115.9, 1130.1) | 1158.3 (1132.0, 1184.6) | 1199.2 (1138.5, 1259.8) | 1245.6 (1132.8, 1358.4) | 1297.7 (1112.5, 1482.8) |
DALYs | |||||
 Both | 744.5 (675.9, 813.1) | 706.5 (553.0, 859.9) | 668.4 (411.7, 925.2) | 630.4 (254.6, 1006.2) | 592.4 (83.5, 1101.2) |
 Male | 785.4 (711.8, 859.1) | 743.5 (578.9, 908.2) | 701.6 (426.1, 977.1) | 659.7 (256.5, 1063.0) | 617.8 (71.8, 1163.9) |
 Female | 695.7 (632.9, 758.4) | 662.1 (521.7, 802.5) | 628.5 (393.6, 863.4) | 595.0 (251.1, 938.8) | 561.4 (95.8, 1027.0) |
YLDs | |||||
 Both | 232.7 (230.9, 234.5) | 235.2 (229.1, 241.3) | 238.3 (226.8, 249.9) | 241.9 (225.1, 258.7) | 245.7 (224.0, 267.4) |
 Male | 226.3 (224.3, 228.3) | 228.1 (221.6, 234.7) | 230.8 (218.5, 243.1) | 233.9 (216.1, 251.8) | 237.4 (214.3, 260.4) |
 Female | 239.9 (238.1, 241.8) | 244.0 (238.3, 249.6) | 248.5 (238.0, 259.0) | 253.4 (237.7, 269.0) | 258.3 (237.9, 278.7) |
YLLs | |||||
 Both | 511.3 (443.2, 579.4) | 470.7 (318.4, 623.0) | 430.1 (175.3, 685.0) | 389.6 (16.5, 762.6) | 349.0 (-156.1, 854.1) |
 Male | 558.3 (485.3, 631.3) | 513.9 (350.7, 677.2) | 469.5 (196.4, 742.7) | 425.2 (25.3, 825.0) | 380.8 (-160.5, 922.2) |
 Female | 456.4 (394.0, 518.9) | 420.3 (280.7, 559.9) | 384.1 (150.6, 617.7) | 348.0 (6.1, 689.8) | 311.8 (-151.0, 774.7) |