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Table 1 Mean annual change during 1990–2020 and 2030 estimates for Somalia’s population indicators

From: Population health trends and disease profile in Somalia 1990–2019, and projection to 2030: will the country achieve sustainable development goals 2 and 3?

Indicator

2019 value

Mean/median annual change 1990–2020

Estimated value in 2030

Total population

15,893,000

2.62

19,196,000

Life expectancy, females (years)

61.29

0.37

65.42 (95% UI 62.30–68.54)

Life expectancy, males (years)

55.73

0.35

58.54 (95% UI 54.89–62.19)

Birth rate (per 1000 population)

41.59

−0.38

42.30 (95% UI 40.97–43.64)

Crude death rate (per 1000 population)

19.6

−0.27

10.00 (95% UI 8.97–11.04)

Fertility rate (births per woman)

5.98

−0.08

5.48 (95% UI 5.28–5.68)

Adolescent fertility rate (births per 1000 women aged 15–19 years)

95.20

−0.05

94.22 (95% UI 70.80–117.66)

Females HALE (years)

53.14

0.28

56.19 (95% UI 51.66–60.16)

Male HALE (years)

49.88

0.27

52.83 (95% UI 48.57–56.93)

Female age-standardized death rate (per 100,000 population)

1415.10

−18.96

1206.55 (95% UI 949.65–1629.94)

Male age-standardised death rate (per 100,000 population)

1893.98

−23.55

1634.95 (95% UI 1313.74–2079.52)

Stillbirth rate (per 1000 total births)

28.38

−0.45

23.42 (95% UI 13.75–38.00

Maternal mortality ratio (per 100,000 live births)

829

−22.41

696.42 (95% UI 590.09–802.75)

Neonatal mortality (per 1000 live births)

36.86

−0.27

33.8 (95% UI 9.37–89.95)

Infant mortality, females (per 1000 live births)

67.9

−1

56 (90% UI 20.84–129.72)

Infant mortality, males (per 1000 live births)

79.4

−1

66.13 (90% UI 25.10–227.60)

Under-5 mortality, females (per 1000 live births)

110.6

−2.9

85.9 (95% UI 22–228.1)

Under-5 mortality, males (per 1000 live births)

122.6

−2.2

96.4 (95% UI 24.8–255.3)

Child mortality rate (per 1000 children aged 5–14 years)

25.3

−0.19

23.3 (95% UI 18.15–29.92)

Stunting in children under 5 (%)

27.4

−0.2

25.2 (95% UI 13.9–39.5)

Overweight in children under 5 (%)

2.9

−0.08

2.1 (95% UI 1.04–6.05)

  1. UI: uncertainty interval; HALE: health-adjusted life expectancy
  2. Note: maternal mortality ratio latest data is for 2017