COVID-19 deaths | Excess deaths | Difference: excess minus COVID-19 deaths | ||||||||||||||||
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OLS | Spatial error model | Spatial lag model | OLS | Spatial error model | Spatial lag model | OLS | Spatial error model | Spatial lag model | ||||||||||
coeff | SE | coeff | SE | coeff | SE | coeff | SE | coeff | SE | coeff | SE | coeff | SE | coeff | SE | coeff | SE | |
Pop. aged 50-69 (%) | 0.012 | (0.012) | 0.024** | (0.011) | 0.008 | (0.009) | − 0.022 | (0.018) | − 0.009 | (0.019) | − 0.010 | (0.016) | − 0.034** | (0.014) | − 0.034** | (0.015) | − 0.026* | (0.014) |
Pop. aged 70-84 (%) | −0.017 | (0.021) | −0.004 | (0.021) | 0.001 | (0.015) | 0.030 | (0.031) | 0.049 | (0.036) | 0.025 | (0.027) | 0.047** | (0.023) | 0.050* | (0.027) | 0.037 | (0.022) |
Pop aged 85+ (%) | 0.302*** | (0.086) | 0.207** | (0.081) | 0.150** | (0.064) | 0.300** | (0.126) | 0.141 | (0.137) | 0.172 | (0.111) | −0.002 | (0.095) | −0.044 | (0.105) | −0.008 | (0.092) |
Employed in agricul. (%) | −0.030* | (0.016) | −0.021 | (0.013) | −0.014 | (0.012) | 0.014 | (0.023) | 0.015 | (0.023) | 0.008 | (0.020) | 0.045** | (0.018) | 0.039** | (0.018) | 0.035** | (0.017) |
Hospital beds (per 1 K) | −0.005 | (0.006) | − 0.002 | (0.004) | − 0.004 | (0.004) | − 0.035*** | (0.009) | − 0.028*** | (0.008) | − 0.034*** | (0.008) | − 0.030*** | (0.007) | − 0.027*** | (0.007) | − 0.030*** | (0.006) |
Pop. density (p/1000 sqm) | 0.020 | (0.039) | 0.060* | (0.033) | 0.029 | (0.029) | −0.052 | (0.057) | −0.055 | (0.057) | −0.047 | (0.050) | −0.072* | (0.043) | −0.100** | (0.046) | −0.073* | (0.042) |
Constant | −0.321 | (0.293) | −0.626** | (0.291) | −0.526** | (0.216) | 0.217 | (0.430) | 0.029 | (0.481) | −0.057 | (0.378) | 0.538* | (0.326) | 0.617* | (0.364) | 0.477 | (0.315) |
[depvar] | 0.803*** | (0.042) | 0.619*** | (0.061) | 0.326*** | (0.079) | ||||||||||||
e.[depvar] | 0.821*** | (0.040) | 0.643*** | (0.060) | 0.358*** | (0.083) | ||||||||||||
var(e.[depvar]) | 0.075 | (0.005) | 0.077 | (0.006) | 0.233 | (0.017) | 0.236 | (0.017) | 0.163 | (0.012) | 0.164 | (0.012) | ||||||
Diagnostics: | ||||||||||||||||||
Measures of fit: | ||||||||||||||||||
AIC | 364.044 | 161.350 | 168.395 | 670.503 | 593.035 | 596.511 | 447.569 | 434.763 | 435.959 | |||||||||
BIC | 392.002 | 197.296 | 204.341 | 698.460 | 628.981 | 632.457 | 475.527 | 470.708 | 471.905 | |||||||||
Tests for spatial error dependence: | ||||||||||||||||||
Lagrange multiplier stat. | 417.418 | 148.799 | 25.007 | |||||||||||||||
Lagrange multiplier p-value | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |||||||||||||||
Moran’s I z-value | 21.534 | 12.978 | 5.498 | |||||||||||||||
Moran’s I p-value | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |||||||||||||||
Tests for spatial lag dependence: | ||||||||||||||||||
Lagrange multiplier stat. | 382.926 | 138.228 | 23.996 | |||||||||||||||
Lagrange multiplier p-value | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |||||||||||||||
Wald test of spatial terms: | ||||||||||||||||||
chi2 | 414.614 | 373.045 | 113.218 | 104.213 | 18.728 | 16.862 | ||||||||||||
Prob > chi2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |