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Fig. 3 | BMC Public Health

Fig. 3

From: How severe would prioritization-induced bottlenecks need to be offset the benefits from prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination to those most at risk in New York City?

Fig. 3

Percent of COVID-19 deaths averted over the period Dec 15th, 2020 to July 1st, 2021 by achieving different vaccination speeds by January 15th, 2021, compared to no vaccination beyond January 15th, 2021. Results are computed using model scenarios without (a) and with (b) the emergence of a more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant, assumed to gradually increase in prevalence over the period of January 1st through February 28th, 2021 with a 56% increase in average SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility by the end of this period. Red lines show deaths averted by vaccination with prioritization of individuals age 65+ and essential workers. Blue lines show deaths averted by vaccination without prioritization. Gray arrows demonstrate the prioritization bottleneck above which prioritization would no longer be favorable in terms of averting the most deaths. Dots show results of model runs, while lines show the cubic interpolation that was used to estimate the impact of vaccination speeds in-between the values directly evaluated in the model

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