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Fig. 2 | BMC Public Health

Fig. 2

From: Model-informed COVID-19 exit strategy with projections of SARS-CoV-2 infections generated by variants in the Republic of Korea

Fig. 2

Projected waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the Republic of Korea. A–C Projected waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection under the current vaccine roll-out plan with the social distancing countermeasures downgraded from Level 4 to Level 1 from 1 November 2021: A the number of newly infected cases, B the prevalence of severe cases, and C the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths from the start day of simulation (13 June 2021). In each figure, blue, red, and green lines and shaded areas indicate projected outcomes and their 95% confidence intervals given the reduction in SARS-CoV-2 transmissions by 30, 35, and 40%, respectively, due to the implementation of Level 4 social distancing. The pink shaded area shows the period during which Level 4 social distancing countermeasures were implemented. D–G Comparison of epidemiological outcomes by different timings of downgrading the social distancing countermeasures to Level 1 (4 October–1 November 2021 with a 7-days interval*) and different levels of increase in the vaccine roll-out from week 40 in 2021 (5–20%). The impacts of possible COVID-19 response stratifications were compared using four outcomes: D Presence of resurgence after lifting interventions, E cumulative incidence after lifting interventions, F peak prevalence of severe cases after lifting interventions, and G cumulative number of deaths. *Scenario 1: October 4; Scenario 2: October 11; Scenario 3: October 18; Scenario 4: October 25; and Scenario 5: November 1

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