Table 2 Results from bivariate regression analysis of demographic, meteorological, health and economic determinants of COVID-19 incidence tested across 3 time points. Columns 1 and 2 show the variable names and an associated brief description, respectively. Columns 3–5, 6–8, and 9–11 show results for the coefficients(+ standard error), adjusted r-squared and p-values from the regression fits of each variable to total COVID-19 cases in April, May and June 2020, respectively

D_Age_15_64y_2018

% total population aged 15–64 yrs. in 2018

0.094 (0.010)

0.076 (0.009)

0.064 (0.009)

0.325

0.278

0.236

8.99E-17

3.51E-14

4.69E-12

D_Pop_over65_2018

% total population over 65 yrs. in 2018

0.116 (0.009)

0.085 (0.009)

0.059 (0.009)

0.496

0.349

0.201

6.47E-28

3.47E-18

2.74E-10

D_Popden2018

Population density in 2018

0.380 (0.124)

0.368 (0.109)

0.255 (0.100)

0.043

0.053

0.029

0.002542

0.000919

0.011711

E_Employ2018 agri_pct_tot_emp

% total male employment in agriculture in 2018

−0.037 (0.002)

− 0.029 (0.002)

− 0.023 (0.002)

0.613

0.486

0.360

4.55E-37

1.39E-26

1.99E-18

E_Employ2018 ind_pct_tot_emp

% total male employment in industry in 2018

0.064 (0.009)

0.052 (0.008)

0.041 (0.007)

0.234

0.195

0.149

1.09E-11

7.69E-10

1.02E-07

E_Employ2018 serv_pct_tot_emp

% total male employment in service in 2018

0.044 (0.003)

0.035 (0.003)

0.027 (0.003)

0.566

0.442

0.324

6.86E-33

1.53E-23

2.2E-16

E_Urban_pct2018

% total population in urban areas in 2018

0.029 (0.003)

0.024 (0.002)

0.021 (0.002)

0.372

0.355

0.343

3.66E-21

4.73E-20

2.74E-19

G_Land_area_sqkm

land area in square kilometers

−0.358 (0.049)

−0.255 (0.044)

−0.166 (0.041)

0.207

0.139

0.071

6.12E-12

2.68E-08

7.8E-05

G_Rain_mm_Apr2016

avg. rainfall in mm in April 2016

0.128 (0.161)

0.036 (0.142)

−0.075 (0.128)

−0.002

− 0.005

−0.004

0.427862

0.801857

0.554773

G_Rain_mm_Feb2016

avg. rainfall in mm in Feb 2016

0.608 (0.120)

0.372 (0.109)

0.225 (0.100)

0.125

0.057

0.023

9.73E-07

0.000823

0.025551

G_Rain_mm_Jan2016

avg. rainfall in mm in Jan 2016

0.519 (0.120)

0.227 (0.110)

0.047 (0.100)

0.092

0.019

−0.005

2.56E-05

0.039809

0.640364

G_Rain_mm_Mar2016

avg. rainfall in mm in Mar 2016

0.343 (0.155)

0.143 (0.137)

0.008 (0.124)

0.022

0.000

−0.006

0.027904

0.300263

0.950179

G_Temp_C_Apr2016

avg. temp in ^oC in April 2016

−0.064 (0.007)

−0.048 (0.006)

− 0.038 (0.006)

0.315

0.235

0.174

1.73E-16

3.71E-12

3.58E-09

G_Temp_C_Feb2016

avg. temp in ^oC in Feb 2016

−0.047 (0.006)

−0.036 (0.005)

− 0.029 (0.005)

0.263

0.211

0.163

1.25E-13

6.03E-11

1.31E-08

G_Temp_C_Jan2016

avg. temp in ^oC in Jan 2016

−0.040 (0.005)

−0.031 (0.005)

− 0.025 (0.004)

0.236

0.195

0.150

3.48E-12

3.79E-10

4.98E-08

G_Temp_C_Mar2016

avg. temp in ^oC in Mar 2016

−0.054 (0.006)

−0.041 (0.005)

− 0.033 (0.005)

0.316

0.242

0.181

1.58E-16

1.55E-12

1.76E-09

H_covid_duration

duration (days) of COVID-19 from first reported date

1.707 (0.367)

2.574 (0.591)

2.964 (0.765)

0.093

0.082

0.065

6E-06

2.13E-05

0.000145

H_DALY_CVD_70yrs

DALY estimates by cardiovascular disease for > 70 yrs

−0.004 (0.101)

0.051 (0.090)

0.071 (0.082)

−0.006

−0.004

− 0.001

0.966794

0.570639

0.38638

H_DALY_CVD_all

DALY estimates by cardiovascular disease for all ages

−0.183 (0.102)

−0.078 (0.091)

− 0.018 (0.083)

0.013

− 0.002

−0.006

0.073734

0.389982

0.833299

H_DALY_resp_70yrs

DALY estimates by respiratory disease for > 70 yrs

−0.014 (0.103)

0.032 (0.091)

0.049 (0.083)

−0.006

−0.005

− 0.004

0.890447

0.727317

0.554885

H_DALY_resp_all

DALY estimates by respiratory disease for all ages

−0.241 (0.101)

− 0.134 (0.091)

− 0.068 (0.083)

0.027

0.007

−0.002

0.018512

0.139592

0.411349

H_Diabetes2019

% population between 20 and 79 yrs. with Type 1/Type 2 diabetes in 2019

0.028 (0.019)

0.016 (0.016)

0.013 (0.015)

0.007

0.000

−0.001

0.135637

0.330341

0.364124

E_TotVisitor2018 permillion

Total registered visitors per million population in 2018

0.911 (0.074)

0.693 (0.073)

0.527 (0.075)

0.489

0.363

0.237

1.42E-24

4.13E-17

6.06E-11