A hybrid of long short-term memory neural network and autoregressive integrated moving average model in forecasting HIV incidence and morality of post-neonatal population in East Asia: global burden of diseases 2000–2019

Chen, Ying; He, Jiawen; Wang, Meihua

doi:10.1186/s12889-022-14321-3

Table 1 The incidence and mortality of HIV in post-neonatal population from East Asia during 2000–2019

From: A hybrid of long short-term memory neural network and autoregressive integrated moving average model in forecasting HIV incidence and morality of post-neonatal population in East Asia: global burden of diseases 2000–2019

	Lower Endpoint	Upper Endpoint	APC	Lower CI	Upper CI	Test Statistic (t)	Prob > \|t\|
North Korea incidence
HIV	2000	2002	14.7*	11.8	17.6	12.3	< 0.001
	2002	2006	9.8*	8.4	11.2	16.8	< 0.001
	2006	2010	4.4*	3.1	5.8	7.8	< 0.001
	2010	2019	−0.7*	−0.9	− 0.5	−7.1	< 0.001
XDR-TB	2000	2004	20.3*	18.9	21.8	33.8	< 0.001
	2004	2011	3.2*	2.5	3.9	10.8	< 0.001
	2011	2019	7.0*	6.6	7.4	35.8	< 0.001
Combined with other diseases	2000	2002	14.7*	11.8	17.6	12.3	< 0.001
	2002	2006	9.8*	8.4	11.2	16.8	< 0.001
	2006	2010	4.4*	3.1	5.8	7.8	< 0.001
	2010	2019	−0.7*	−0.9	−0.5	−7.1	< 0.001
MDR-TB	2000	2005	6.3*	5.5	7.1	19	< 0.001
	2005	2010	−4.6*	−5.6	−3.6	−10.4	< 0.001
	2010	2015	0.6	−0.5	1.6	1.2	0.245
	2015	2019	3.5*	2.4	4.6	7.6	< 0.001
DS-TB	2000	2004	4.2*	3.9	4.5	30.6	< 0.001
	2004	2011	−0.8*	−1	−0.7	− 11.8	< 0.001
	2011	2017	2.0*	1.8	2.2	21.1	< 0.001
	2017	2019	−1.5*	− 2.4	−0.5	−3.5	< 0.001
North Korea mortality
HIV	2000	2003	15.4*	14.1	16.8	28.2	< 0.001
	2003	2007	8.7*	7.5	10	16.5	< 0.001
	2007	2012	5.5*	4.8	6.3	16.7	< 0.001
	2012	2019	0.2	−0.1	0.5	1.3	0.213
XDR-TB	2000	2003	28.8*	24.5	33.3	16.9	< 0.001
	2003	2007	16.2*	12.3	20.2	10	< 0.001
	2007	2013	6.9*	5.3	8.5	9.9	< 0.001
	2013	2019	1.5*	0.4	2.7	3	< 0.001
Combined with other diseases	2000	2004	14.8*	13.8	15.8	34.7	< 0.001
	2004	2011	7.2*	6.7	7.7	32.8	< 0.001
	2011	2019	1.2*	0.9	1.5	8.4	< 0.001
MDR-TB	2000	2003	15.5*	11.6	19.6	9.4	< 0.001
	2003	2007	7.3*	3.7	11.1	4.6	< 0.001
	2007	2013	0.6	−0.9	2.2	0.9	0.392
	2013	2019	−2.9*	−4.1	−1.8	−5.7	< 0.001
DS-TB	2000	2004	12.2*	11	13.3	24.1	< 0.001
	2004	2012	5.1*	4.7	5.6	24.9	< 0.001
	2012	2019	−4.2*	−4.6	−3.8	−21.2	< 0.001
South Korea incidence
HIV	2000	2003	82.6*	70.5	95.5	19.2	< 0.001
	2003	2011	10.3*	8.3	12.4	11.7	< 0.001
	2011	2019	− 3.6*	−5.1	−2.2	−5.4	< 0.001
XDR-TB	2000	2004	17.1*	15.9	18.2	35.4	< 0.001
	2004	2014	−0.1	−0.4	0.2	−1	0.344
	2014	2017	5.1*	1.8	8.5	3.6	0.006
	2017	2019	−3.1*	−6.2	0	−2.3	0.049
Combined with other diseases	2000	2003	82.6*	70.5	95.5	19.2	< 0.001
	2003	2011	10.3*	8.3	12.4	11.7	< 0.001
	2011	2019	−3.6*	−5.1	−2.2	−5.4	< 0.001
MDR-TB	2000	2005	3.4*	2.3	4.6	6.8	< 0.001
	2005	2013	−7.2*	−7.8	−6.5	−25	< 0.001
	2013	2017	−0.3	−2.8	2.2	−0.3	0.766
	2017	2019	−6.7*	− 11.3	−1.9	−3.1	0.013
DS-TB	2000	2005	−2.4*	−2.9	− 1.8	−9.4	< 0.001
	2005	2009	14.3*	12.9	15.8	23.6	< 0.001
	2009	2017	−0.4*	−0.8	−0.1	−2.9	0.016
	2017	2019	−5.3*	− 7.7	−2.9	−4.8	< 0.001
South Korea mortality
HIV	2000	2010	8.2*	5.1	11.4	5.8	< 0.001
HIV	2010	2019	−4.7*	−7.9	−1.3	−3	0.009
XDR-TB	2000	2004	36.5*	23.1	51.4	6.4	< 0.001
XDR-TB	2004	2019	−2.9*	− 4.2	−1.5	− 4.5	< 0.001
Combined with other diseases	2000	2003	82.6*	70.5	95.5	19.2	< 0.001
	2003	2011	10.3*	8.3	12.4	11.7	< 0.001
	2011	2019	−3.6*	−5.1	−2.2	−5.4	< 0.001
MDR-TB	2000	2004	27.4*	14.9	41.2	5.1	< 0.001
	2004	2009	−13.7*	−22.2	−4.4	−3.1	0.008
	2009	2019	−6.0*	−8.3	−3.6	−5.3	< 0.001
DS-TB	2000	2010	8.9*	6	11.9	6.7	< 0.001
DS-TB	2010	2019	−4.5*	−7.5	−1.4	−3.1	0.007
Mongolia incidence
HIV	2000	2006	−6.6	−15.3	3	−1.5	0.153
	2006	2015	7.7*	1.2	14.7	2.6	0.024
	2015	2019	−26.6*	−38.8	−12	−3.7	0.003
XDR-TB	2000	2004	9.0*	4.7	13.4	4.8	< 0.001
	2004	2010	1.6	−1.3	4.5	1.3	0.242
	2010	2016	16.4*	13.1	19.7	12.1	< 0.001
	2016	2019	−14.4*	− 19.7	− 8.8	−5.6	< 0.001
Combined with other diseases	2000	2003	8.8*	2.5	15.5	3.2	0.011
	2003	2006	−9.6	−19.8	1.9	−1.9	0.09
	2006	2016	8.1*	6.9	9.3	16.1	< 0.001
	2016	2019	−32.7*	− 36.6	−28.5	−14.9	< 0.001
MDR-TB	2000	2010	−4.8*	−5.6	− 4.1	−14.2	< 0.001
	2010	2014	11.3*	5.8	17.1	4.8	< 0.001
	2014	2017	1.3	−8.4	12.1	0.3	0.776
	2017	2019	−23.6*	−31	−15.5	−6	< 0.001
DS-TB	2000	2002	−7.6*	−13.2	−1.7	−2.9	0.018
	2002	2010	−17.2*	− 17.9	− 16.5	−51	< 0.001
	2010	2017	1.9*	0.8	3	4	0.003
	2017	2019	−26.3*	−30.8	−21.5	−11	< 0.001
Mongolia mortality
HIV	2000	2003	−0.8	−6.3	5.1	−0.3	0.772
	2003	2007	−8.7*	−13.9	−3.3	−3.6	0.006
	2007	2016	7.8*	6.5	9.2	13.6	< 0.001
	2016	2019	− 32.6*	−36.4	−28.6	− 15.5	< 0.001
XDR-TB	2000	2010	−1.6*	−2.8	− 0.5	−3	< 0.001
	2010	2016	13.8*	9.9	17.8	8.2	0.012
	2016	2019	−28.3*	−33.7	− 22.6	−9.4	< 0.001
Combined with other diseases	2000	2003	8.8*	2.5	15.5	3.2	0.011
	2003	2006	− 9.6	−19.8	1.9	−1.9	0.09
	2006	2016	8.1*	6.9	9.3	16.1	< 0.001
	2016	2019	−32.7*	−36.6	−28.5	−14.9	< 0.001
MDR-TB	2000	2010	−9.6*	−10.7	−8.5	−17.7	< 0.001
	2010	2016	8.4*	4.6	12.3	4.9	< 0.001
	2016	2019	−31.8*	−37	−26.1	−10.4	< 0.001
DS-TB	2000	2010	−19.1*	−20.2	−18.1	−34.4	< 0.001
	2010	2016	2.4	−1.5	6.5	1.4	0.2
	2016	2019	−30.8*	−36.5	−24.5	−9.3	< 0.001
Japan incidence
HIV	2000	2004	−0.5	−2.5	1.6	−0.5	0.6913
	2004	2012	8.1*	7.2	9.1	19.9	< 0.001
	2012	2016	−15.8*	−18.5	−12.9	−11.7	< 0.001
	2016	2019	1.3	−2	4.7	0.9	0.412
XDR-TB	2000	2002	− 6.3*	−9.1	−3.6	−5	< 0.001
	2002	2010	−13.2*	−13.5	−12.9	− 81.5	< 0.001
	2010	2015	4.7*	3.8	5.7	11.3	< 0.001
	2015	2019	−18.4*	−19.1	− 17.6	−49.3	< 0.001
Combined with other diseases	2000	2004	−0.5	−2.5	1.6	−0.5	0.613
	2004	2012	8.1*	7.2	9.1	19.9	< 0.001
	2012	2016	−15.8*	− 18.5	− 12.9	− 11.7	< 0.001
	2016	2019	1.3	−2	4.7	0.9	0.411
MDR-TB	2000	2002	−12.1*	−18.9	−4.8	−3.7	0.005
	2002	2009	−22.4*	− 23.4	− 21.3	−42.4	< 0.001
	2009	2015	−2.7*	−4.4	−0.9	−3.4	0.008
	2015	2019	−21.3*	−23.3	−19.3	− 21.4	< 0.001
DS-TB	2000	2002	−5.0*	−7.9	−2	−3.7	0.004
	2002	2010	−11.3*	− 11.6	−10.9	−65.4	< 0.001
	2010	2015	−3.7*	−4.6	−2.8	−8.7	< 0.001
	2015	2019	− 22.6*	− 23.4	− 21.8	−59.3	< 0.001
Japan mortality
HIV	2000	2007	2.7	−0.6	6.2	1.8	0.098
HIV	2007	2019	−3.2*	−4.6	−1.8	−4.8	< 0.001
XDR-TB	2000	2011	−2.4*	− 4.4	−0.4	− 2.6	0.021
XDR-TB	2011	2019	3.3	0	6.8	2.1	0.051
Combined with other diseases	2000	2007	4.6*	1	8.3	2.8	0.017
Combined with other diseases	2007	2019	−3.2*	−4.7	−1.7	−4.5	< 0.001
MDR-TB	2000	2010	−10.4*	−12.5	−8.3	− 10	< 0.001
MDR-TB	2010	2019	−1.9	−4.5	0.8	−1.5	0.158
DS-TB	2000	2019	−2.5*	−3.3	−1.6	−6.3	< 0.001
Taiwan incidence
HIV	2000	2012	11.1*	9.8	12.4	19.8	< 0.001
	2012	2015	−12.8	−28.3	6	− 1.5	0.152
	2015	2019	2.1	−4	8.7	0.7	0.469
XDR-TB	2000	2005	6.4*	5.8	7	23.7	< 0.001
	2005	2010	−5.7*	−6.4	−4.9	−15.8	< 0.001
	2010	2017	0.8*	0.3	1.2	4	0.003
	2017	2019	4.2*	1.5	7	3.5	0.006
Combined with other diseases	2000	2012	11.1*	9.8	12.4	19.8	< 0.001
	2012	2015	−12.8	−28.3	6	−1.5	0.152
	2015	2019	2.1	−4	8.7	0.7	0.469
MDR-TB	2000	2006	−4.4*	− 4.6	− 4.2	−46.2	< 0.001
	2006	2010	−12.9*	−13.5	− 12.3	−47.8	< 0.001
	2010	2017	−4.1*	−4.3	−3.9	− 43.2	< 0.001
	2017	2019	0.5	−0.8	1.8	0.9	0.398
DS-TB	2000	2019	−2.3*	− 3.1	−1.4	−5.5	< 0.001
Taiwan mortality
HIV	2000	2011	8.6*	6	11.3	7.3	< 0.001
HIV	2011	2019	−3.1	−6.8	0.8	−1.7	0.111
XDR-TB	2000	2019	−0.7	−1.6	0.3	−1.5	0.164
Combined with other diseases	2000	2011	12.9*	9.9	16	9.7	< 0.001
Combined with other diseases	2011	2019	−3.6	−7.7	0.6	−1.8	0.09
MDR-TB	2000	2019	−6.9*	−7.9	−5.9	−13.7	< 0.001
DS-TB	2000	2019	−2.3*	−3.1	−1.4	−5.5	< 0.001
China mainland incidence
HIV	2000	2007	5.9*	4.8	7	12.2	< 0.001
	2007	2013	−4.2*	−5.9	−2.5	−5.5	< 0.001
	2013	2016	0.8	−6.9	9.1	0.2	0.826
	2016	2019	−12.6*	−16	−9	−7.7	< 0.001
XDR-TB	2000	2006	0.1	−0.7	0.9	0.3	0.806
	2006	2010	−10.8*	− 12.9	−8.6	−10.7	< 0.001
	2010	2014	−5.9*	−8.2	−3.6	−5.7	< 0.001
	2014	2019	6.3*	5.1	7.4	12.8	< 0.001
Combined with other diseases	2000	2007	5.9*	4.8	7	12.2	< 0.001
	2007	2013	−4.2*	−5.9	−2.5	−5.5	< 0.001
	2013	2016	0.8	−6.9	9.1	0.2	0.826
	2016	2019	−12.6*	−16	−9	−7.7	< 0.001
MDR-TB	2000	2005	−8.8*	−10.1	− 7.5	− 15	< 0.001
	2005	2010	−15.4*	−17	− 13.7	−19.1	< 0.001
	2010	2014	−11.3*	−14.1	−8.5	− 8.7	< 0.001
	2014	2019	2.2*	0.8	3.6	3.5	0.006
DS-TB	2000	2002	−3.1	−7.3	1.3	−1.6	0.148
	2002	2010	−6.2*	−6.7	−5.6	−24.2	< 0.001
	2010	2013	−2.5	−6.7	1.9	−1.3	0.231
	2013	2019	−0.1	−0.8	0.7	−0.3	0.784
China mainland mortality
HIV	2000	2008	3.8*	2.2	5.5	5.1	< 0.001
HIV	2008	2019	−0.6	−1.6	0.3	−1.4	0.191
XDR-TB	2000	2007	0.1	−1.5	1.8	0.2	0.881
	2007	2014	−11.2*	− 13	−9.3	− 12.4	< 0.001
	2014	2019	−2.9*	−5.6	−0.2	−2.3	0.037
Combined with other diseases	2000	2008	7.0*	5.2	8.8	8.5	< 0.001
Combined with other diseases	2008	2019	0.4	−0.7	1.4	0.7	0.482
MDR-TB	2000	2007	−8.6*	−10	−7.3	−13.3	< 0.001
	2007	2014	−16.0*	−17.5	− 14.4	−20.3	< 0.001
	2014	2019	−7.0*	−9.3	−4.7	−6.4	< 0.001
DS-TB	2000	2009	−4.6*	−5.5	−3.7	−10.5	< 0.001
DS-TB	2009	2019	−7.8*	−8.5	−7	−21.4	< 0.001

APC Annual percent changes, XDR-TB Extensive drug-resistant tuberculosis, MDR-TB Multidrug-resistant TB, DS-TB Drug-susceptible TB

Back to article page

ISSN: 1471-2458

Contact us

Submission enquiries: bmcpublichealth@biomedcentral.com
General enquiries: ORSupport@springernature.com

BMC Public Health

Contact us