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Table 17 ML Parameter estimates for MS(3)-GARCH(1,1)-model with heavy-tailed innovations

From: Estimating the risk of SARS-CoV-2 deaths using a Markov switching-volatility model combined with heavy-tailed distributions for South Africa

Model

Parameter

Estimate

P-value for the AD statistic

MS-GARCH-StD

\({\widehat{\mu }}_{s\mathrm{td}}\)

\({\widehat{\sigma }}_{s\mathrm{td}}\)

\({\widehat{\nu }}_{s\mathrm{td}}\)

-0.0187

1.3348

2.7672

0.6193

MS-GARCH-SStD

\({\widehat{\mu }}_{ss\mathrm{td}}\)

\({\widehat{\sigma }}_{ss\mathrm{td}}\)

\({\widehat{\nu }}_{ss\mathrm{td}}\)

\(\widehat{\xi }\)

0.0396

1.3209

2.8148

1.1032

0.9593

MS-GARCH-NRIGD

\({\widehat{\lambda }}_{NRIGD}\)

\({\widehat{\alpha }}_{NRIGD}\)

\(\widehat{\delta }\)

\({\widehat{\beta }}_{NRIGD}\)

\({\widehat{\mu }}_{NRIGD}\)

0.5

1.0369

0.3419

0.0924

-0.0787

0.9636

MS-GARCH-PIVD

\(\widehat{m}\)

\({\widehat{\nu }}_{PIVD}\)

\({\widehat{\lambda }}_{PIVD}\)

\({\widehat{\alpha }}_{PIVD}\)

2.3455

0.3184

1.3856

1.1699

0.9812